Thread by @ProfessorP5

#FakeNews aside, what is the current state of #Russia's war in #Ukraine?

RU, UKR, and Western maps roughly agree with respect to the position of the front line.
However, when estimating losses, there are incredible differences... and this is what I'd like to discuss in this 🧵.

Total #Ukrainian & #Russian #Troops

Public estimates of troop numbers vary, with most sources agreeing that both sides have committed ~150k-250k men to the conflict.

Forces committed ≇ total army size.
cf. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_For…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_A…
armedforces.eu/compare/countr…

#Russian & #Ukrainian #Casualties

Reznikov said he "hopes" the figure is below 100k.
Most US sources est. UKR & RU losses to be ~16k.
Most UKR & RU est. opponent's losses as double.
edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
& there's Ex-Gen. Twitty
exxpress.at/us-general-ver…

#Russian & #Ukrainian #Equipment #Losses

Using data from the following sources:
ain.capital/2022/06/21/war…
nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/…
kaggle.com/datasets/5481b…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e…

and if focusing solely on tanks ≈

To Win #Ukraine Needs More

More troops
More equipment
More modern equipment

While #Russia is losing predominantly its old equipment,
Ukraine is losing & new equipment equally (cf. table in previous tweet above).

The West promises but🚫delivering enough
jamesrushton.substack.com/p/western-heav…