Like every year, with @space_angelC we are updating the Eurospace #spaceeconomy data set with the compilation of 2021 launch events. I will post a few charts making this thread grow as I get them ready. So let's get started. 1/n #eurospacefacts
First the global situation. A few charts to look at the main trends in space activity from the supplier perspective, and in mass at launch. 2/
Here is the total mass launched by spacecraft production region. We clearly see that #Starlink (230t in 2020 and 260t in 2021) is disrupting launch mass statistics. We can also see the major growth of Chinese space activities. All of it is institutional. #eurospacefacts 3/
We can have a look at the same chart but without the impact of human related programmes (ISS/Tiangong). The mass impact of Starlink (and of Chinese programmes) is even more striking. #eurospacefacts 4/
And now we can put in perspective the impact of privately funded spacecraft vs institutional programmes, and here again the current impact of Starlink on launched mass statistics is absolutely unique. #eurospacefacts 5/
We see that the average mass of satellites is decreasing a lot in recent years, with the average satellite weighing less than 400 kg in 2021, against 2,7t in 2012. This trend is very much driven by Starlink (avg w/o Starlink: 600kg), but not exclusively. #eurospacefacts 6/
Let's have a look at institutional activity and notice how China has really stepped up its game. In 2021, the Chinese space programme launched to orbit as much mass as all the other institutional programmes worldwide combined. #eurospacefacts 7/
When considering the military component of institutional space activity the data shows a general trend towards more military space activity, and a clear ambition for China to bridge the gap with the USA and Russia. Europe has no such ambition obviously. #eurospacefacts 8/
Coming next: our estimates for spacecraft and launch service market values in constant M$ using purchasing power parities for accurate international comparisons. 9/

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More from @LionnetPierre

Jun 3
Here is another episode of the never ending launch price/cost saga, starring @momentusspace: I am surprised that I have not yet seen any commentary on their appreciation of the price of access to orbit as shown in the May 2022 investor presentation. static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_pre… 1/
Beyond the fact that I don't know what is their basis for calculations, in particular how they allocate the cost of "own propulsion" to the launch, considering that the propulsion systems serves other functions, I gather from this that 15k$/kg is their price tag? 2/
So the "last mile" service actually applies a factor 3 to the baseline rideshare price on #SpaceX? I fail to see the viability of this model, but maybe it is still too early (also considering that #Vigoride didn't do very well so far: spacenews.com/momentus-attem…) 3/
Read 5 tweets
May 29
#Starlink Gen2 is 5x bigger and 10x more capable than Gen1, i.e. 2x more efficient (not considering potential lifetime extension). Curious to see if service price drops accordingly, to enable more market penetration. But let's have a look at some launch numbers now. 1/
If Starlink Gen2 is 30000 satellites (spacenews.com/spacex-goes-al…) it represents 36000 tons at launch in total. Or 240 #Starship flights (at 150t/flight). 2/
@elonmusk noted that indeed F9 cannot be used to deploy Gen2, thus making Starship a single point of failure for the #Starlink project (as I noted in the past already) 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 21
I thought I was the only using the burger analogy to explain space economics (scientificamerican.com/article/spacex…), well no: this report finds that a spaceport has an economic impact comparable to a couple of fast food restaurants. 1/
This was an independent assessment of the economic impact of a vertical launch site in Michigan, very much applicable to the spaceport project in Camden (Ga) that is facing a successful opposition from the locals. 2/ thecurrentga.org/2022/02/08/cam…
thecurrentga.org/2022/05/10/wha…
The study notably analyses how the projected 'demand' for spaceports forecast in 2018-2020 will not materialise, and will leave new spaceports without a business. 3/
scribd.com/document/57283…
Read 14 tweets
May 12
Quite some info here on @VirginOrbit and #launcherone to feed the never ending saga of launch costs reduction. Is it happening? is it supporting the 'smallsat revolution'? is it 'democratising' space and making it 'accessible to everyone'? 1/
First we read that the January 2022 launch yielded 2.1M$. With a total mass launched of less than 30kg, for 6 cubesats deployed (according to @planet4589 here: planet4589.org/space/gcat/dat…) that is a whopping >70k$/kg to orbit. Hardly a bargain. 2/
If that weren't enough, even at that price $VORB state they can't cover their costs for the next launches “It is probable for five of these launch service agreements that the costs to provide the service will exceed the firm fixed price of each launch” @VirginOrbit says 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jan 16
Starlink: 2000 satellites launched (and >10% already decommissioned). Why isn't #SpaceX accelerating the deployment? What is preventing it? Why is it not happening? I would have expected a higher frequency Starlink launch rate at this point (40-50 launches/year at least). 1/
I know that this is not a popular opinion, but I can only see two (non mutually exclusive) reasons for this: 1) Falcon9 is too expensive; 2) Falcon9 turnaround time is too long. Tu put it short: it is not as effective as required. 2/
In a recent talk with Lex Fridman @elonmusk said: "the upper stage is at least 10M$" & "the booster is not as rapidly and completely reusable as we'd like" ... "the minimum marginal cost not counting overhead per flight is on the order of 15 to 20M$" 3/
Read 24 tweets
Jan 11
"ESA Reignites Space-based Solar Power Research" shar.es/aWEETb via @spacecom - But does ESA considers a comprehensive study to assess the global impact of the large scale launch activity required to support the deployment of large solar power facilities in orbit? 1/
I attended most of the ESA workshop on solar Power Satellites mentioned in the article, and the question of the carbon/climate/energy footprint of launch was not a headline topic and was not addressed. For a "net zero" approach this seemed very incomplete to me. 2/
For instance, a baseline (very optimistic) design for a 2GW power unit in orbit would require the deployment of >2000 tons in GEO. That's about 300 Ariane5 launches just for the deployment, probably exceeding a few million tons of CO2? 3/ fnc.co.uk/discover-fraze…
Read 9 tweets

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