Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Jun 25 7 tweets 4 min read
1/9 - “Figures from ONS, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, reveal that in the week ending 18 June an estimated 1/40 people in England are thought to have had #COVID19, 1.36 mn people, up from 1/50, or 1.13 mn the week before.”
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
2/9 - “The estimated number of people testing positive for #COVID19 also rose in Scotland and Northern Ireland and, to a lesser extent in Wales, with levels highest in Scotland where around 1/20 people, or 4.76% of the pop are thought to have had Covid in the week ending 17 Jun.”
3/9 - “In England, infections increased across all age groups, with the lowest level of infection seen in school-aged children. These increases are largely driven by the #Omicron #BA4 and #BA5 variants.”
4/9 - “Levels are highest in London, and among those aged 25 to 34 – with around 3.3% of the latter estimated to have had #COVID19 in the most recent week. Overall, it is estimated 1.7 million people in private households across the UK had the virus last week.”
5/9 - “Research released earlier this month revealed that an Omicron infection offers little extra protection against catching it again, while #BA5 is growing 35.1% faster than the previously dominant Omicron subvariant #BA2, while #BA4 is growing approximately 19.1% faster.”
6/9 - “Hospitalisation rate for #COVID19 in England has risen from 6.11 per 100,000 to 8.20 per 100,000, with rates highest in the north-east and in those aged 85 and over. […] but vaccinations are continuing to keep ICU admissions and deaths at low levels.”
7/9 - “As prevalence increases, it’s more important than ever that we all remain alert, take precautions, and ensure that we’re up to date with #COVID19 vaccinations, which remain our best form of defence against the virus. It’s not too late to catch up.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

Jun 25
1/9 - Jun 25 to Jun 30 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
PT (R-eff=0.94) is the first country to see its #COVID19 #BA5 wave declining, med mortality.
- Surging/rising in the IT=1.30; AU=1.26; FR=1.25; NL=1.22; CH=1.21; LUX=1.20; NO=1.20; UK=1.20/DK=1.18; ICL=1.15; BE=1.14; IRL=1.13; DE=1.13; SP=1.12, low-med mort.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Albania (R-eff=1.38); Greece=1.25; Serbia=1.24;Croatia=1.23; Slovenia=1.22; Slovakia=1.22; Lithuania=1.21;
- Increase/plateau in Latvia=1.08/ Estonia=0.99;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 25
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.25) experiences a surge in #COVID19 cases driven by #BA5, low mortality. 81.2% > 1 dose.
86,434 cases and 40 deaths/day to be reported by Jul 01, if at same pace.
Forecast for Jun 25 to Jun 28:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Nine mainland Régions are experiencing a surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.25);
[Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.23];
Ctre-Val-de-Loire=1.22;
Corse=1.22;
[Hts-de-France=1.20];
Ile-de-France=1.22;
Nouv-Aquit=1.22;
Occit=1.21;
PACA=1.25.
3/4 - Four mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low [medium] mortality:
[Bretagne (R-eff=1.18)];
Grand-Est=1.18;
Normandie=1.17;
Pays-de-Loire=1.19.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 25
1/5 - “L'alertiste [= le précautionneux] est moralisateur, il trouve que médecins, scientifiques, journalistes ont la responsabilité de promouvoir une attitude responsable et solidaire…”
slate.fr/story/229559/p…
2/5 - “Le rassuriste est démagogue, il sait que son discours va plaire et que c'est celui-là que l'on veut entendre.”
3/5 - “Le parti “rassuriste” ne puise-t-il pas ses racines dans un certain individualisme, une forme de néolibéralisme?
N'empiétez pas sur mes libertés retrouvées,cessez d'agiter les arguments de la peur pour maintenir le peuple sous votre joug sanitaire,enfermiste, liberticide.”
Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
1/5 - Choléra et #COVID19, à 170 ans d’écart:
John Snow s’opposait en 1854 au courant scientifique dominant des miasmes morbides en identifiant l’eau de la pompe de Broad St comme la source de contaminations du choléra à Soho, Londres: la pompe puisait l’eau souillée de la Tamise
2/5- John Snow convainc alors les autorités d’enlever la manivelle de la pompe où s’abreuvaient les habitants. En quelques jours, l’épidémie de choléra régresse.
Cette intervention n’évoque-t-elle pas le confinement contre le #COVID19: mesure efficace mais intenable sur la durée?
3/5 - Le Dr Snow meurt deux ans plus tard dans l’oubli. Il faudra plus de 50 ans pour ressortir ses travaux et se décider à se lancer dans de grands travaux d’assainissement urbains.
Entre temps, les milieux éduqués bourgeois vont filtrer l’eau et la purifier artisanalement.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
1/5 - “Based on official reported #COVID19 deaths, we estimated that vaccinations prevented 14·4 million (95% credible interval [Crl] 13·7–15·9) deaths from #COVID19 in 185 countries and territories between Dec 8, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021.”
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
2/5 - “This estimate rose to 19·8 million (95% Crl 19·1–20·4) deaths from #COVID19 averted when we used excess deaths as an estimate of the true extent of the pandemic, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths (19·8/31·4 million) during the 1st yr of #COVID19 vacc.”
3/5 - “In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, we estimated that 41% of excess mortality (7·4 million [95% Crl 6·8–7·7] of 17·9 million deaths) was averted.”
Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
1/4 - "La très forte transmissibilité des nouveaux variants, a conduit, malgré la baisse prononcée du taux de létalité grâce à la protection vaccinale, à des nombres absolus de décès #COVID19 restés voisins en rythme annuel en 2020, 21 et 1er semestre 22."
atlantico.fr/article/decryp…
2/4 - "Il est donc temps de réfléchir désormais à une troisième phase dans la réponse à cette pandémie qui viserait à continuer à vivre “comme avant” la pandémie, tout en limitant davantage les hospitalisations et la mortalité du #COVID19."
3/4 - "Pour cela, il conviendrait désormais de s’attaquer à la source même de la transmission du coronavirus, afin de réduire les contaminations et de ce fait réduire substantiellement la mortalité du #COVID19, quels que soient les variants et sous-variants circulants."
Read 9 tweets

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