Thread by @venturefounder

#MVRV Z-Score is a standard deviation that pulls the extremes of #Bitcoin price and #BTC realized value. The higher Z-score = more overvaluation, vice versa. A key on-chain indicator

The Z-score had just moved into "undervalued" zone this week, last seen in Dec 2018 & March 2020

@glassnode #Bitcoin % Supply in Profit hit a new cycle low.

Currently BTC supply % in profits rebounded from 50% during the $20k crash, macro bottoms for BTC happened in the past when BTC supply in profits reached 40-50% level.

Getting closer. One more capitulation could do the job.

@glassnode #RHODL ratio identifies #Bitcoin macro tops and bottoms. Currently, RHODL ratio is lower than its March 2020 levels, and also very close to the "undervalued" bottom zone last saw in macro bottom in 2018, but not yet.

@glassnode #NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss.

#Bitcoin NUPL is at "CAPITULATION" zone for the first time since March 2020, but cycle bottom capitulations could last a while (like the 2018 cycle).

So you shouldn't get FOMO for $20k yet.

@glassnode At historical cycle bottoms, #Bitcoin has usually seen ~84% drawdown from cycle top. As of now, #BTC has already saw a 70% drawdown from this cycle top ($69k), 84% drawdown gives a target of $14k, but from now until the ultimate bottom is definitely VALUE zone for BTC.