#MVRV Z-Score is a standard deviation that pulls the extremes of #Bitcoin price and #BTC realized value. The higher Z-score = more overvaluation, vice versa. A key on-chain indicator

The Z-score had just moved into "undervalued" zone this week, last seen in Dec 2018 & March 2020 Image
@glassnode #Bitcoin % Supply in Profit hit a new cycle low.

Currently BTC supply % in profits rebounded from 50% during the $20k crash, macro bottoms for BTC happened in the past when BTC supply in profits reached 40-50% level.

Getting closer. One more capitulation could do the job. Image
@glassnode #RHODL ratio identifies #Bitcoin macro tops and bottoms. Currently, RHODL ratio is lower than its March 2020 levels, and also very close to the "undervalued" bottom zone last saw in macro bottom in 2018, but not yet. Image
@glassnode #NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss.

#Bitcoin NUPL is at "CAPITULATION" zone for the first time since March 2020, but cycle bottom capitulations could last a while (like the 2018 cycle).

So you shouldn't get FOMO for $20k yet. Image
@glassnode At historical cycle bottoms, #Bitcoin has usually seen ~84% drawdown from cycle top. As of now, #BTC has already saw a 70% drawdown from this cycle top ($69k), 84% drawdown gives a target of $14k, but from now until the ultimate bottom is definitely VALUE zone for BTC. Image

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More from @venturefounder

Jun 26
#Bitcoin has been making higher highs since the crash to $18k, but the recovery is nothing impressive after a crash of this magnitude.

I think #BTC might stay in this area for sometime waiting for July CPI number, macro decisions (Fed) and Q2 earnings/recession confirmation. Image
But to be fair, this crash is significant because it has brought #Bitcoin down to the level in sync with previous cycle bottoms.

#200WMA gives a bottom target of $22.4k, #BTC is now below that.

BTC also resting on 1 fib extension level in this correction, like 2018 cycle bottom Image
3D deathcross-capitulation model gives a target of $15.5k #Bitcoin for this cycle bottom, #BTC has come close to this target during the crash but didn't hit it.

Notice the 3D RSI wasn't as oversold yet as with the 2018 cycle bottom. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 26
13 years since #Bitcoin's inception, #BTC has never seen a secular #bearmarket (Monthly #RSI has never been oversold), eventually this will come.

Though I strongly believe BTC will have at least one more cycle to go before this happens, it is possible this has already began. Image
In a secular bearmarket, the "only only" mentality gets tested then shattered. People will ask "how is this possible?", we saw a hint of this when #BTC fell below previous cycle top $20k.

Much alike #NASDAQ in dotcom age, for 14 years, it has always had higher highs... Image
then come 2000 a secular #bearmarket shattered all previous expectations (as indicated by monthly oversold RSI).

Imo it is not a question if but when the similar will happen to a rapidly growing asset like #Bitcoin, those who bought the secular top could be in losses for years.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 6, 2021
If you think #Bitcoin cycle will continue and this is just a mid-cycle correction, then historically, this large drawdown (30% from ATH) should be an excellent buy.

Each time after new ATH, there are several >25% corrections, other than the last one in the cycle, all good buys.
In the 2017 cycle, after #BTC passed the previous ATH of $1k, there were 7 corrections that are >25% (3 of them are >35%), except for the last one, the first 6 were all good buying opportunities. After the 6th correction, BTC went from $6k -> $19k ATH.
In current cycle, after #BTC passed previous ATH of $20k, there were 3 corrections >25% (last one was the May 2021), except for that one, the first two were excellent buy points. $30k ->$57k, $45k->$61k

Now we are in the first >25% correction after passing previous ATH of $65k.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4, 2021
Due to the @Grayscale trust discount, #Grayscale had been selling their #Bitcoin bit by bit for almost 10 months now, on average selling 30-50 #BTC a week. Image
In contrast, last December, #Grayscale was buying BTC aggressive due to their trust premium.

For example, from #Bitcoin's $20k to $40k move from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021, @Grayscale played an instrumental role, they purchased 60,240 #BTC during that period ($1.8B USD worth of BTC). Image
Similar story for #ETH, Grayscale had been selling on average 200-250 $ETH per week for months now.

The sooner #Grayscale trust be can be turned into ETF, the sooner will they start buying #BTC and ETH again.

They could become the largest spot ETF in the world, if SEC approves. Image
Read 4 tweets

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