An update folks. The southern sector of the Lysychansk salient was liquidated quickly as we expected (
The #Azotal plant, also as expected played like a fast forward version of #Aozvstal partly due to a creative #Russian hook
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1540221912734998528), once it was fully encircled.
The #Azotal plant, also as expected played like a fast forward version of #Aozvstal partly due to a creative #Russian hook
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1540219949863559170
which surrounded it within the larger encircling operation. This included drama with civilians with the plant as well as foreign fighters. We did not cover it much since many others were and I believe the more critical story is the wider encirclement happening, rather than the
specific capture of Azotal or even all Severodonetsk. The northern, larger and more important, sector of the salient remains. We discussed what we could expect here:
We can now update for the last 3 days, pretty much as such. The thermal data for
https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1540221923635896320
We can now update for the last 3 days, pretty much as such. The thermal data for
the last 3 days tells us the story. #Russian forces focused as we expected on first taking the #Vovchoyarivka ridge. This is now secure as is #Mykolaivka. Heavy shelling and strikes rocked #Topolivka and Spirne ~30 hours ago. The former is now in Russian hands. After a 
consolidation and resupply, starting about 7 hours ago (red circles) we have intense shelling west of the oil refinery (yellow square) in Verkhnokamianka. Clearly Russia forces have hooked around both sides of the oil refinery to widen there front as they advance north towards
Bilohorivka without getting bogged down in the industrial stronghold. Likewise, very intense strikes occurred around the highway near Spirne, with intense fires breaking out, as well as in Ivano-Darivka & the remaining areas of the high ground in UA hands. Thus far the advance is
exactly as we expected towards the Bilohorivka- Hryhorivka area (which is threatened from the north). Pressure on southern Lysyshansk meanwhile is maintained, especially through Bilo hora. Much to update in other areas shortly. The remaining chance for UA to stop the encirclement
at the strong fortifications and high ground of Bilohorivka, which earlier stopped the infamous Russian river crossing attempt. However being outflanked & attacked from several directions this time, as the front collapses around them, is not conducive to victory. We shall see.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
