Thread by @ZimermanErik

Nearly 20 days later we have additional movement on this "speculative" front. Long and difficult artillery battles have finally left the Vesele to Balakilia line secure, across the forest belt south to the Siverskyi Donets river. As we expected, along the rail line there has been

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1535308760419295232

RU expansion of this front westward towards Andriivka. Then a few days ago reports emerged of Russia securing #Nortsivka north of the forest on the western flank of #Izium, which continues to be a place of constant & under-reported battles.

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https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1535068308953010176

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It seemed

to many only a move to help control the forest area from this base. Apparently however it was the first move in an attempt to encircle the whole forest sector from the west. This is what I speculated could happen though I thought this drive might come from the north around Bairak

When we look at the thermal data history from VIIRS, it seems in fact both are happening. The drive from the north is being supported by an outflanking movement from the east. Crossing the river (where it is shallow here) and capturing Nortsivka was key for RU in this move.

Though the town was reported captured, the data indicates that the southeastern & perhaps central parts were in fact captured by RU but as of yesterday, the outskirts in the north were still being shelled. Today additional areas further north were struck, presumably to broaden

the front of advance, while RU forces are very likely to be advancing south from the north, which is why we see the intense attack on Volobulivka. In this way, RU forces aim to encircle #Chepil, the strongpoint of Ukrainian forces in the area meant to block the advance south.

The advance south is straight to the settlements on the high ground flanking (and dominating) the western edge of the forest & the river, that is Protopopivka, Zahorodnie and Petrivske. As we discussed earlier, securing this line is key to stop effective UA attacks through the

forest to #Izium which harass and threaten the key and narrow supply line there. Along with these 2 axis of advance we can expect an advance, supplied from Izium & the main R79 highway from Barabashivka towards Velyka Komyshuvakha & Hrushuvakha. These are both important junctions

and capturing the latter would cut off the target settlements from any formal road-bound supply. Taking these two towns however is no easy task. UA forces have stopped & even pushed back RU forces there earlier in the war & are heavily entrenched in the area due to their obvious

importance. Like elsewhere, the mere threat of pressure from that flank, would aid the other two as well, even if no breakthrough is developed and exploited. Though it has gone little noticed, this forest sector has been one Ukraine's most fruitful efforts lately, where without

too much investment in manpower and resources (compared to UA's more publicized recent efforts elsewhere), it has succeeded in significantly hurting and slowing the Russian advance. The Izium breakthrough was in fact stopped, unlike that through Popasna in large part because its

flanks were not secured and a proper rail supplied hub could not be established. As we have discussed elsewhere, with the recent gains for RU further east, Izium is consistently overcoming these shortcomings and securing this western forest flank is about the last one. If RU is

successful here, we can expect to see additional resources invested by Russia into the Izium front, & further advances here. They are key for the larger encirclements RU wishes to conduct after the current one is complete. Ukraine would do well to try to keep this flank exposed.