Thread by @TheStudyofWar

According to ISW, the next phase of the war may depend on Russia’s ability to “recoup combat power” from the captured eastern city of Severodonetsk.

@washingtonpost: Battle may grind on through summer in Ukraine’s east, analysts say
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…

More from our June 28 assessment:

The remaining Russian forces in #Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into #Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive.

isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…

This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three main bridges across the river. However, Russian officials have claimed that Russian forces have already crossed the river from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk.

ISW cannot independently verify such claims, but if they are true, and Russian forces threaten to complete the cauldron by pushing from the north and SW of Lysychansk, then Ukrainian forces will likely abandon the city and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible lines.

A notable acceleration of Russian attacks from the south of Lysychansk or from across the Siverskyi Donetsk River would likely indicate that the Russians have completed a redeployment of forces from Severodonetsk, but ISW has not yet observed such indicators. /End