2/ I’m staring at a list of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The results are sorted by their weighting in the index from largest to smallest. At a 6.97% weight, $AAPL is at the top.
3/ The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 represent 29.7% of the index. Nearly a third of every dollar you invest in that index is going into just ten stocks. The value-weighted average price-to-sales ratio is 7.3x.[i] Madness.
4/ $TSLA stock price to sales ratio is the number one contributor to that offensive valuation metric. The vaunted maker of electric vehicles sported a 14.5x multiple with a 2.44% weight in the index.
5/ The chart below shows the weighting in the S&P 500 Index of stocks valued at over 10x P/S.
6/ For any advisor or FA who has bought into the dogma of "only indexes" we ask you: do you think having dot com levels of painfully inappropriate valuations in your clients’ portfolios is a good idea? If so, why?
7/ As most investors have noticed, markets have begun to fall. After what some have suggested are 40 years of ever-larger policy mistakes, the bill is coming due.
8/ Valuation is a horrible timing tool but, as we have shown, it has been a remarkably effective forecaster of realized 10 year forward returns.
9/ As the chart below shows, the sell-off to date has cut valuations to 184% of GDP. That is still a level well above the peak of the dot com mania.
1/ By June 8th of this year, the S&P500’’s Energy stocks were up 70% in a -13% market. From June 8 to June 24th the sector fell -22%. That’s 11 trading days.
2/ Not really surprising considering the relative performance.
3/ On a call with a friend/PM at “XYZ” we talked briefly about energy. I commented that the stocks seemed to be discounting $75 oil. His view was that if he put his “trading hat on” that oil going from $100 to $75 would bury the stocks.
1/ The phrase “I got Enroned” has entered the investing lexicon recently...
2/ KCR believes the term is slang to describe the losses being incurred by investors in stocks with indefensible valuations and low-quality accounting.
3/ In Jan2022, we built an Index of Glamour Stocks with valuations, returns, and earnings manipulation scores that were equal to or worse than some of the most infamous stocks of the dot com bubble.
We have updated the trajectory to put their performance in historical context.
@Robert46989257
Stock Based Comp will not matter until it is ALL that matters....When employees REALIZE that they are both a source of labor and financing!
see our two pieces from the fall on $TWLO & $SNAP #SBCFinance
The 87% that said "YES" to firing the manager for underperforming their bench by 100% over 5 years, nice work, you just fired Warren #Buffett on Feb 28, 2000 (see Fig 1)
Look now at Fig. 2: only two years after said Index Advocate would have fired Buffett, BRK was ahead of the index by 72%
The benefits of sitting out the crazy periods can be seen in Fig 3 below. That is Buffett from 1995 – today. Unfortunately Mr. Buffett will not live forever.
2/ With gas in Asia trading in the $20s, US Henry Hub at $5 and $100s of billions in LNG export facilities coming online in the US, where is that gas coming from?
3/ Remember, the US lifted the post 1970s ban on exporting energy in the heady year of 2015 when US debt markets were all-too-happy to lend to money losing shale, and Energy Stocks had a weight in the S&P 500 that was 3x higher than today.