More than four months have passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. During the war, Russian and Ukrainian strategy has evolved. Today, an update on Russia’s #strategy in Ukraine. 1/22 
2/ The aim of this is to provide insights into how Putin has evolved his ‘theory of victory’ in #Ukraine, and therefore provide a foundation for developing Ukraine’s (and the West’s) defeat mechanisms against Russia.
3/ Throughout the conflict, many have explored Russia’s strategy for its subjugation of Ukraine. Because that is what Putin seeks – the absolute subjugation of the Ukrainian people, and the extinguishment of their sovereignty.
4/ This is what Putin described in his pre-invasion eve speech. This objective was slightly muddled – at least in our understanding – in the wake of the 9 May Victory Day speech that Putin gave in Red Square. But more recently, Putin has been ‘back on message’.
5/ Last month, President Putin confirmed that, in #Ukraine, he is leading a war of imperialist conquest. He and his nation were not, as he described on 9 May, defending themselves against NATO aggression. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
6/ Last week, Putin doubled down on this, noting that the war might drag on to “the last Ukrainian left standing”. So, throughout Putin’s brutal aggression against the people of Ukraine, his overall objective has not changed. en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
7/ What has evolved since 24 February has been the ways and means he has used to achieve it. Putin’s Plan A, just four months ago, was for a lightening military operation conducted on multiple fronts to shock the Ukrainian military into submission.
8/ This would facilitate the removal (probably the murder) of the democratically elected government & the installation of Quislings who would do the bidding of Putin and his oligarchs. As the world has observed, it hasn’t worked out like that.
9/ Despite their battlefield setbacks, Putin, Lavrov and his defence and intelligence chiefs have cobbled together an alternative theory of victory for Ukraine. It goes – in the broadest sense - something like this.
10/ First, they have prioritised their military operations, eschewing concurrent, multi-front offensives. They have focussed on eastern offensive, and southern defensive, campaigns. This permits the Russians to husband the military forces that remain from the original invasion.
11/ And, it has drawn the Ukrainians into a war of attrition, something they avoided in the Battles of Kyiv and Kharkiv. As such, this is the first element of the Russian theory of victory: destroy the Ukrainian Army faster than it can be rebuilt.
12/ Next, Russia aims to hold Ukraine’s south. While Ukrainian partisans corrode Russian morale, and Ukrainian counterattacks slowly regain territory in Kherson, holding the south is the 2nd element of Putin’s theory of victory because it slowly strangles Ukraine economically.
13/ Third, Russia now probably sees benefit in drawing out the war. The Ukrainians are now reliant on western munitions. And holding onto the southern regions, the Ukrainians are becoming increasingly dependent on international economic aid. Time is Putin's weapon.
14/ This this is where Putin sees opportunity. He believes that the short attention span, and the lack of strategic patience, that western nations have shown in places like Somalia, Iraq & Afghanistan will occur in Ukraine if he can hold out for the northern winter.
15/ Then, with increasing energy costs, rising inflation and a general weariness with the war (among populations who are sacrificing nothing), Putin is counting on assistance to #Ukraine declining. And greater pressure from the old European powers for some form of accommodation.
16/ Finally, Russia is using continued energy exports to generate revenue to support its war in Ukraine. It has continued to export fossil fuels to many nations. And revenue continues to wash into Russian accounts.
17/ The aim of exploring Putin’s revised theory of victory is not academic, however. If western nations can understand just how Putin thinks he might win this war, defeat mechanisms can be developed that combat each element of Putin’s approach.
18/ There has been some success. Western long-range rockets have allowed the Ukrainians to degrade Russia’s artillery, the main battlefield killer. It has also allowed them to support southern counter attacks with the aim of taking back their seaports. kyivindependent.com/national/1234
19/ Many nations, and NATO, have made political and strategic commitments to support Ukraine ‘to the end’ to address the challenge of strategic patience. And sanctions on Russia continue to evolve to cover loopholes.
20/ Just as Putin will continue to evolve his theory of victory for Ukraine, so too must the nations of the west continue to revise and adapt their approach in supporting Ukraine.
21/ Ukraine & the West are in a battle to outthink & out adapt Russia. As @lawdavf writes, it's a fight that Ukraine can win. But it requires strategic patience & ongoing commitment of military, intelligence, economic & humanitarian aid to #Ukraine. End. samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-…
22/ Thank you to the following, whose images were used in this thread: CNN.com @thestudyofwar @criticalthreats @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @RALee85 @walter_report
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