Nobody really knows if #NordStream1 goes back online, but the bigger picture is clear: #Russia is tightening the screws with a slow-motion gas cutoff. And Russia will have to continue to tighten: The European energy crisis is one of the few successes of #Putin in this war. 1/
The underlying motivation for #Putin for cutting off gas is only becoming stronger: 1.) The West's role in the Ukraine war is increasing. It may not have been crucial in the first phase, but it is important now, and over time, Ukraine will be fighting mostly with Western arms. 2/
Motivation 2.): #Russia will fall into a deep economic crisis towards the end of the year, the situation will be much worse than now, and Putin needs a crisis in the West for his propaganda to work with if he doesn't want to look weak. 3/
Of course, #Russia could create a crisis and still sell some #gas, if it reduces volumes enough. But with every success that we have in preparing ourselves for the Winter, Moscow will reduce its deliveries further, to keep the tension high. 4/
If Putin would suddenly deliver the usual amounts of gas again, gas prices in Europe would plummet, and we would be happy, while Russia is drowning in a deep economic crisis. I just don't see that happening. 5/
If you take all of the above factors together, the most likely outcome is that gas deliveries will be reduced more and more, probably (not necessarily) to zero until the end of the year. 6/6
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