Thread by @crypto_caesar1

***🧵When to take on Alfa/Alts***

1/6 Altcoins generally only have 1 (maybe) 2 cycles in them before they underperform and fail to reach an ATH again. This has proved to be the case in every cycle especially when measured in #satoshis.

2/6 Even on USDT pairings most never print an ATH after their first cycle.

This is one important reason you should avoid taking positions now. You need to wait until a few months prior to the halving & see what the new #narrative is in crypto then. Hunt it out so to speak…

3/6 This cycle brought NFTs and Defi for example. The last brought forks and ICO’s among other things.

You can guarantee in such an infant market new narratives will arise in every 🐂 market.

With this the % upside gains in new #narratives are generally higher than the old..

4/6 Therefore, taking on alfa (aka high risk) now isn’t a smart play as you could well be betting on an old narrative or an outdated idea.

This part of the cycle is about accumulating spot #Bitcoin and #Ethereum (IMO on a 75% & 25% allocation respectively). Then waiting…

5/6 For me a few months before the halving gives you a good idea of where the speculation is and where the money might go.

It’s at this point I start to take positions in alfa or high risk assets viz #shitcoins

6/6 There are of course some exceptions to this as we have seen ‘some’ #altcoins perform well during bear markets (#Link #HOT as examples in the last bear market).

However, the general principle above is evident IMO.

Therefore, we shall wait for our alfa until Q4 2023.

CC❤️