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The Intel Crab

Jul 30 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

You're going to hear a lot about #Taiwan over the next couple of days. Like most topical events, this means rumors and clickbait are certain to follow.

No, the Taiwan Strait is not closed. Or blocked. Or shut down. Here's a look at current maritime traffic in the region...

As for rumors of military hardware 'on the move', there seems to be a bit of truth there. This thread shows (and even attempts to geolocate) at least a couple of the videos circling around right now.

https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1553359261941772288?s=20&t=2NLn824nXdeFSdQ4nXtKcg

Videos like this also seem to be authentic. They look flashy because they're meant to look flashy. All projectiles seem to land within declared exercise zones.

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/1553324374593265667?s=20&t=rkzSuUraELzmcPXg-9AqTQ

This video caught my eye. It shows a road convoy of at least five PLA PHL-16 multiple rocket launchers on the move in #Fujian.

So far appears to be authentic: likely ripped from WeChat sometime in the last two days.

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The Intel Crab

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Jul 12

Its morning in Nova Kakhovka. Eight hours later, explosions can still be detected via VIIRS/MODIS observation.

Looks like it could be this spot (46°45'34"N, 33°23'1"E) after all. We'll hopefully get confirmation soon.

When the satellite images drop in a few hours/days, don't expect the typical ruined site. Expect a full blown crater. This explosion was absolutely massive.

(reference to the site I noted earlier)

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Hey @DefenceU, u up, homie?

https://twitter.com/truth_or_WARE/status/1546350066155266048

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Complex has been abandoned for 3+ years. Such a shame its now overrun by cockroaches.

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Jul 10

Overnight, another Russian ammunition dump went 💥 in #Shakhtarsk. Site has been burning for hours.

Hard to ignore the pattern underway this week. Every night - around the same time - Ukrainian missile systems launch devastating, strategic missile strikes on Russian military targets all across the Donbas.

Game changing tactics.

Tonight was particularly intense. More RU bases/warehouses were targeted in the last six hours than I can genuinely recall.

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Jul 9

The entire frontline - an almost 800 kilometer long front stretching from #Kherson to #Kharkiv - can be made out via MODIS/VIIRS data collected over the last 24 hours...

A combination of dry weather and hot temperatures has led to an outbreak of wildfires.

These four fires are all within 10 kilometers of central Kherson. There are many more.

Further east, this area along the Donets is also full of fire. The Donbas area is far more wooded than Kherson.

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Jul 4

I've been able to compare FIRMS data with preliminary footage from the explosion to conclude tonight's explosion in #Snizhne occurred here: a large warehouse just south of town.

@wikimapia

This warehouse is labeled 'hangar with equipment' on @wikimapia. Could've been home to not only Russian ammunition, but armored vehicles too.

Here's a photo of the warehouse from last year.