Thread by @kuantingvision

With @SpeakerPelosi rumored to be arriving in #Taiwan tonight, let's remember: kindling the fire of Beijing's #psyop is only helping the CCP.
People in Taiwan need to take preparedness seriously, but hyperbolic headlines and performative panic are only aiding our adversary. 🧵👇

We can expect more sabre rattling, more incursions into ADIZ which asymptotically close to the median line, more petty bans on our agricultural products. But these are not insurmountable challenges to our sovereign democracy. #IslandOfResilience

Of course, it would be naïve to discount CCP's brutality in #HongKong, #EastTurkestan, #Tibet, #SouthernMongolia... But 🇨🇳 communists already administer these regions. This shows that regime survival is a primary concern.

The alarmist headlines of Western media outlets are, in a way, a testimony to an extremely self-centered view of the world. They position "the West" as an actor in all global affairs. But I argue Xi first and foremost seeks to telegraph his messaging to domestic audiences.

This also means we should regard the upcoming 20th Natl Congress of the #CCP as *stabilizing* factor rather than a reason for further escalation. Xi's primary concern is to get an unprecedented 3rd term. Risking precious military resources would simply be a bad business decision.

The brutality of putin's #WarInUkraine reminds us that it is too early to discount kinetic conflict as anachronistic. But modern day warfare is increasingly sophisticated, and increasingly capitalizes on vulnerabilities of the digital realm and the information space.

This is why #China relies so much on #PsychologicalWarfare: to create division and internal conflict, and to change the public's voting behavior. To undermine our #Taiwan democracy in white gloves. So let's remain cool-headed and prepared so as not to aid our adversary.