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Aug 2 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
New: The real crisis over Taiwan will start after Pelosi comes home washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… by me @PostOpinions #Pelosi #Taiwan #China
"The larger impact of Pelosi’s visit will play out after she goes home, over weeks, months and years."

"The pace and intensity of U.S.-China competition are set to go up, changing the relationship forever, with Taiwan caught squarely in the middle."

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
To avoid the appearance of provocation, the U.S. Air Force plane carrying the Pelosi delegation flew around the Philippines on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Taipei. No U.S. fighter planes flanked Pelosi’s jet...

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Beijing’s response will come in phases and not primarily in the military domain. That could forever change the U.S.-China relationship and subject Taiwan to longer-term pain.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
U.S. officials have been telling their Chinese government interlocutors that Pelosi’s trip is not an intentional provocation, but Chinese leaders don’t believe that Biden is powerless to stop her.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
“China has a very broad array of tools to hurt Taiwan,” one official said. “What we’ve learned over the years is that when China sees a misstep by its adversary, it often steps in aggressively to take advantage. That’s what they are likely to do here.”

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Beijing can now claim a pretext for rejecting the Biden administration’s current pitch for putting “guardrails” on the U.S.-China competition to manage it responsibly. To be sure, the Chinese leadership might well have rejected that idea anyway...

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
The silver lining is that Beijing’s overreaction to Pelosi’s visit might result in Taiwan and other countries accelerating their own plans to reduce their dependence on China.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
"Beijing’s use of economic coercion and military aggression are only set to rise over time. Therefore, the international effort to bolster Taiwan militarily, economically and diplomatically must increase accordingly."

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…

@washingtonpost

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More from @joshrogin

Josh Rogin Profile picture
Jul 31
This is the current location of #SPAR19, the US Air Force plane that took off from Honolulu last night. It may carry Pelosi and her delegation. Seems like it’s headed for Singapore but also could be Taiwan. Image
#SPAR19, the USAF plane that may hold the Pelosi delegation, has left Guam (after refueling presumably) and is headed west. Still unclear if it’s headed towards Singapore or #Taiwan. Image
#SPAR19 is clearly headed for #Singapore, which means that if this is the plane carrying the #Pelosi delegation, the #Taiwan stop would likely be after her #Malaysia stop, meaning Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Josh Rogin Profile picture
Jul 3
Why is the TikTok executive on @ReliableSources telling @brianstelter all the videos Americans see are made in the US when, as Brian said, that’s obviously not true. If TikTok is trying to build trust, it’s failing.
He also keeps claiming the “national security experts” and “the CIA during the Trump administration” said the data TikTok collects is not of national security importance. This is the spin? Awfully weak and transparently incorrect spin from TikTok.
The TikTok executive dodged the question @brianstelter asked him about whether any CCP member has seen the US data. He said TikTok hasn’t “shared” the data with the Chinese government and it hasn’t asked. As if they would need to ask. They can just take it, any time they want.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Rogin Profile picture
Jun 21
#Breaking: At the naming ceremony just now, Dave Chappelle announced he is not placing his name on the Duke Ellington High School theater after all and instead he decided it shall be called the Theater for Artistic Freedom and Expression.
Chappelle rejected the criticism from students of his special The Closer, saying they didn't know him and were just repeating someone else's agenda:

“These kids didn’t understand that they were instruments of oppression.”
Chappelle said his special The Closer was unfairly portrayed in the press:

“You cannot report on an artist’s work and remove artistic nuance.”

He said it would be like reporting a large rabbit shot a man in the face without telling people it was a Bugs Bunny cartoon.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Rogin Profile picture
Jun 11
.@SecDef Austin: “We’re seeing growing coercion from Beijing. We’ve witnessed a steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity near Taiwan. That includes PLA aircraft flying near Taiwan in record numbers in recent months—and on a nearly daily basis.” #sld22
.@SecDef Austin: “We do not seek confrontation or conflict. And we do not seek a new Cold War, an Asian NATO, or a region split into hostile blocs.” #sld22 @IISS_org
.@SecDef Austin: “We’re seeing PRC vessels plunder the region’s provisions, operating illegally within the territorial waters of other Indo-Pacific countries.” #sld22
Read 4 tweets
Josh Rogin Profile picture
Jun 2
The Cold War taught us that exploiting brain drain is a smart and righteous strategy. But now, some in the GOP have forgotten that lesson.

My new column @PostOpinions

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
@PostOpinions The US risks blowing its greatest opportunity since the Cold War to bolster our competitiveness at the expense of our adversaries, because some Republicans are more dedicated to thwarting immigration than competing with Russia and China.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
As tens of thousands of young, middle-class workers fled Russia out of disgust or necessity, the Biden administration proposed easing visa restrictions on Russians with advanced degrees STEM. But Republican leaders refused...

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Read 7 tweets
Josh Rogin Profile picture
May 29
New: How the U.N. became a tool of China’s genocide denial propaganda washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… by me @PostOpinions
Before Bachelet made her long-awaited tip to China last week, the Biden administration and the human rights community urged her not to let Beijing turn the visit into a propaganda win for the CCP. But Bachelet ignored those warnings...

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
After a two-day visit to Xinjiang region, Bachelet failed to clearly condemn the government’s campaign of repression there and she acquiesced to Beijing’s framing of the issue there as “counterterrorism and radicalization.”

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Read 7 tweets

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