Thread by @GArmasCardona

A thread on yesterday’s attack on #NagornoKarabakh, and my fear of what it signifies (in summary: more and worse fighting) 1/18

First, while yesterday was a spike of violence, yesterday was not the beginning. Apparently (I cannot corroborate), Azerbaijani troop movement began a few days earlier.

https://twitter.com/jughafedayi/status/1554871246390796289

2/18

The actual fighting began with Azerbaijan violating the ceasefire on 1 August. This has been confirmed by the Russian peacekeepers. armenpress.am/eng/news/10895… 3/18

For those unaware of the #KarabakhConflict, the fighting is occurring at the critical Lachin corridor. This is the corridor that connects Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh/the area protected by Russian peacekeepers (use whichever term you prefer) to Armenia. 4/18

I’m reminded to this tweet of Russia’s desire for control of the corridor. Whoever controls that lifeline makes them an indispensable actor in the region.

https://twitter.com/GArmasCardona/status/1336376974185553921

5/18

Despite Russia having that control, it clearly failed to fulfill its role as peacekeeper. Russia obviously has bigger concerns because of its illegal invasion of Ukraine, but if Russia doesn’t want to lose its influence in the Caucasus, it can’t ignore the duty it took on. 6/18

The ceasefire agreement has been violated routinely with small arms since 2020. What makes this attack different was the use of heavier weaponry including drones, leading to more death and destruction. 7/18

One of the few successes of the negotiations in the 90s was the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the border, leading to “only” sniper fire violating the Bishkek Protocol. Unfortunately, it looks like we don’t even have that anymore. 8/18

This was a clear violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, and Azerbaijan cannot justify its acts based on the killing of an AZ soldier on 2 Aug nor that the Artsakh’s defense forces (which are not part of the ceasefire agreement) exist. 9/18

My concern, and why I’m writing this thread, is because this attack signifies more fighting of higher intensity in the future. The reason is because it’s very unlikely Azerbaijan will face any ramifications. Every actor is either unable or uninterested in doing so. 10/18

Armenia is not able to do anything except express displeasure diplomatically. Yerevan is not the security guarantor of Nagorno-Karabakh anymore and has a much weaker say over Stepanakert than it did pre-2020 (IMO, less say than Moscow does now). 11/18

Russia should be able to do something but doesn’t have the military or diplomatic capacity to respond because all its resources are tied up in Ukraine 12/18

The EU is unlikely to do anything that could jeopardize its new gas deal with Azerbaijan while the Ukrainian war is ongoing. Thus, soft “both sides”-ism statements like this is likely to be all we’ll get.

https://twitter.com/ToivoKlaar/status/1554492906278354944

13/18

Their focus on the peace negotiations makes them shy away from the messy situation on the ground. The only way their approach will be successful is if a peace deal occurs before 2025. Otherwise, it could be disastrous. 14/18

The Armenian people can’t do anything except through the government as the only conduit for non-governmental voices is the opposition, and their focus is solely on undoing the results of the 2021 election.* 15/18

The Azerbaijani people—based on what I have seen on Reddit, Twitter, and Facebook—won’t do anything as they are in general in favor of this military action and presumably more attacks in the future.* 16/18

* Both previous tweets get asterisks because there are people in both societies working for peace and coexistence. It’s still tragic that their influence is so small. 17/18

Conclusion: if the use of force doesn’t carry negative consequences, that means that the use of force remains a viable political option. Thus, my fear of more war of even higher intensity in the future, pushing us ever further from #NKPeace. End