Tweet

https://twitter.com/ftenergy/status/1556218921417572352

More from @anasalhajji

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jul 25

Thread 🔥
Random thoughts on energy markets: What if the war in #Ukraine ends? #Russia
1- This is a touchy subject. Everyone has a different opinion from others. This thread is not about whether the war ends & how it ends. It is about the impact on energy markets if the war ends

2- While we have to distinguish between ending the war and ending the sanctions, ending the war alone will have ramifications for the energy markets: some countries, even in Europe, will not enforce the sanctions or will turn the blind eye to the violations of sanctions.

3- By ending the war, Russia will get support from several countries that will argue for ending the sanctions. The mere talk of ending the sanctions will encourage various countries to break them. Meanwhile, Russian oil & gas will flow to China, India, and OPEC+ members

Read 17 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jul 16

Short thread on MBS' messages to Biden's Administration
1- From my point of view, the most important points in MBS' speech today that are directed at President Biden: (these are my conclusions as I understood the speech, not the exact sentences of MBS)
#SaudiArabia #Biden

2- We agree on many things, but we differ on a few others. Every country has its own culture and circumstances. I respect yours, you respect mine. Do not impose your culture on us. Do not impose your beliefs on us.

3- I think the references here are related to all the issues that do not fit with Islamic and Saudi society's principles & values. In addition to issues related to how the country is ruled. Read between the lines here in light of what those on the extreme left want.

Read 7 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jul 13

Short thread on Biden visit to #SaudiArabia

1- The Biden Administration has no other choice but to “say” that President Biden will push Saudis for more oil outputs. Can they “say”anything otherwise?

2- Practically, oil remains a secondary issue for both Biden & the Saudis

3- Even if Saudis agree to increase “supplies” in Q4: oil will not arrive to markets until after US elections. Without a recession, that oil is needed and will be in the market anyway.

4- Why has the Biden Admin been asking #SaudiArabia to increase production since Aug 2021, not US producers, not Canada, not Latin American countries? If you know the answer you realise that:
1- the Administration is right
2- has nothing to do with gasoline prices in the US

Read 5 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jul 11

سلسلة تغريدات عن البنزين (مكتوبة منذ سنين)
1-6 لو أدرك الشعراء دور البنزين في حياتنا، لامتلأت جدران مضخات البنزين بالشِعر. ولو أدرك الأدباء خصائص البنزين، لأصبح بطل القصص والروايات. لو عرفنا أن عالمنا يدور في فلك البنزين، لاحترمناه بالشكل الذي يستحقه
#البنزين #النفط

2-6 فالبنزين، في النهاية، من الشمس لأن أصل النفط هو طاقة خزنتها النباتات من تعرضها للشمس (عملية التمثيل الضوئي)، ثم تحولت بعد موتها واندثارها تحت ضغوط وحرارة معينة إلى نفط، وبعملية تحليل مبدأها تسخين النفط، حصلنا على البنزين.

3-6 من هذا المنطلق يمكننا القول إن سياراتنا تسير على الطاقة الشمسية، ولكنها طاقة أرسلتها الشمس منذ ملايين السنين!
لو أدركنا ما يقوم به البنزين لأحببناه وأشفقنا عليه من الاحتراق، ولكنه مُنتَج “شهم” و”نبيل” يأبى إلا أن يقوم بدوره حتى يختفي من الوجود .. قطرة .. قطرة!

Read 6 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jul 5

Thread: Will the weather support Biden or Putin?

1- Two factors will determine the future of Presidents Biden & Putin: Global economic growth & Weather.

A recession is bad for both Biden & Putin.

A #recession might change the balance of power in the forthcoming US election

2- A recession is not good for Putin: It would reduce the demand for oil & natural gas & allow the EU to rebuild its inventories. It would also lower energy prices, which reduces Putin’s bargaining power. A recession would reduce the cost of building regasification terminals.

3- A recession might help Putin if it leads to increased public anger in Europe and change in governments. After all, Putin's objective is t break the EU and force some of them to deal with him covertly or overtly. Just look at the events in the Netherlands now.

Read 20 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

Jun 29

@NPR

I thought @NPR was going nuts today when their "experts" talked about Russian oil, but here is one from Reuters... which they got from somewhere:

"Russian production costs are $3-$4 per barrel and Russian firms could probably profit even if oil prices were $25-$30 per barrel."