Thread
1-9 EIA investigation of the adjustment & the results are all about “data quality.” @EIA_One tweeted a chart showing that the adjustment factor grew with exports since 2016.
I have been talking about data quality since 2017 & I created the hashtag: #Data_Quality_Matters 2-9 Mr. @EIA_One stated that the investigation led to two causes of the rise in adjustment: exports & production. Here is a tweet from June 6, 2019:
“The growing adjustment factor (something exaggerated: production or exports)”
Also, notice the hashtag

https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1136514836844748802?s=20

Short Thread
Let us go along with what some pundits are saying:
Global oil demand will peak soon & then decline:

1-4 That doesn't mean lower oil prices. It might mean, among various scenarios, ever-increasing prices. Remember, prices are about demand & S U P P L Y! #Oil 2-4 Oil investment is needed no matter what because of the declining rates in the fields. Even at 75 mb/d in 2050, all of it has to be new oil. We literally need trillions of dollars in upstream investment if oil demand declines. Imagine if NO decline!

Thread on Turkey’s Energy Ambitions & Regional Dominance
1-18 President Erdoğan gave an energy-focused speech last Friday in a ceremony for the capacity expansion of the Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility, which reached 4.6 billion cubic meters (162.45 bcf). 2-18 The speech highlights several energy policy issues, provides some interesting data, and most importantly, highlights the two issues that we focused on in this week's and last week’s newsletters: Relations with Russia and the desire to be a gas hub.
anasalhajjieoa.substack.com

1- The Biden Administration has the right to refill the SPR as it sees fit… but to flip the story and say we sold the oil at $96 and now we are buying it in the low $70s, therefore we are making money for the taxpayer is the worst story they can tell about the SPR. 2- from an accounting point of view, adjusted for inflation, the SPR oil that was sold at $96 in today’s dollars was sold at a very large loss. Some of the oil was sold at 40 cents on the dollar.

Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management

2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT 3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!

Thread 🩸

1- To think #Russia & #oil traders have not prepared for the Dec 5 deadline is naive.. however, everyone wants to take advantage of the weeks and days before the deadline.. activities increase, then decline, making the deadline looks more effective than reality #Russia 2- Remember:
A- the December 5 deadline is for crude only … not petroleum products

B- Five European countries are exempt in one way or the other

Question: do sanctions apply to oil via rails and trucks? 😳👿

On Latin America turning left:
1-5 Leftists rely on populism & the mobilization of the poor, who are the majority in society. This requires spending huge money on this group. Where does the money come from in light of the dwindling private sector and the flight of capital? #oil

https://twitter.com/IndyArabia/status/1587361754861998082

2-5 Solution? Interfere in the affairs of the NOCs in two ways: The first is to employ their supporters to satisfy them regardless of their competencies. This leads to higher company costs and lower efficiencies, which leads to permanent deterioration in production.

Before reading the news below, check this tweet from 2020. I will also post others below it. #Autonomous_vehicles

https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1281279523984728065?s=20&t=9JAKdYAhhCirvLXh_LLrdw

Self-driving cars face uncertain path to U.S. deployment reuters.com/business/autos… Here, from 2018:

https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1004952059047751680?s=20&t=9JAKdYAhhCirvLXh_LLrdw

سلسلة تغريدات عن أسعار الغاز الأميركي في أوروبا
1- يستخدم الكثير من المعلقين بيع الولايات المتحدة الغاز المسال بأربعة أضعاف سعره في أوروبا كحجة ضد أميركا بسبب انزعاحها من تخفيض أوبك+ للإنتاج.

الحقيقة أن استخدام هذه الحجة يضعف حجة دول الخليج ويميّع الموضوع، ويعبر عن جهل شديد. 2- اختار الأوروبيون والهنود منذ فترة، وقبل الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا، التحول من العقود الطويلة المدى التي تربط أسعار الغاز المسال بأسعار النفط والمنتجات النفطية إلى الأسواق الفورية، وكان أحد الأسباب وفرة الغاز المسال وانخفاض أسعاره وقتها.

Short thread on #Iran:

1- I am getting numerous questions about Iran.

a- If you study how dictators & governments collapsed, you find a common thread: Regime's lines of communication collapsed!

b- If you think global superpowers want #democracy in Iran, think again. #Iran 2- A regime collapse leads to a major decline in oil & natural gas production and exports. We have seen this before. President Biden cannot have it both ways.

3- A regime collapse might lead to the "Iraqization" of Iran wth rampant sectarian and ethnic violence. #Iran #Iraq

Thread on California Gasoline Crisis:

1- I wish I was still teaching at the university. I would have used the recent Valero letter to the #California Energy Commission as the main reference for a two-hour lecture on the impact of public policy on the oil sector. $VLO #Oil #OOTT 2- The commission sent Valero a letter requiring answers to certain questions within ONE business day. Yep, ONE!
Velero responded with a two-page letter within one business day. I am impressed, as you can tell, with the letter. #Oil #Gasoline #Climate

Probably President Biden should not talk about gasoline prices again. He just said something and we lost three refineries in 24 hours!
#Oil #OOTT #COM #EFT Ok, now they are 4 refineries! #Argentina #Refinery #Gasoline

1-3 تأسست شركة جي إم للسيارات منذ 144 عاما. وتطورت مع الزمن بعد شرائها العشرات من شركات السيارات. حاول مؤسسها وليام دورانت شراء شركة فورد ب8 ملايين دولار، ووافق هنري فورد ولكن طلب أن تكون ذهبا. ولما لم يتمكن دورانت من توفير الذهب، طرده مجلس إدارة جي إم من الشركة. 2-3 أسس شركة شفروليه التي قامت بشراء غالبية أسهم جي أم، وسيطر من جديد على الشركة التي أنشأها. ماركات بيويك وشفروليه وكاديلاك وبونتياك كانت كلها شركات مستقلة جمعتها جي إم. بعد سنوات طرده مجلس الإدارة مرة أخرى. فأسس شركة سيارات جديدة أفلست بسبب الكساد العظيم.

Happy 144th Birthday GM! #Oil_History $GM
1-3 GM was established on Sep 16, 1908. It started with Buick. Later it acquired Oldsmobile, Cadillac & more than 25 car companies. There are many turns and twists in GM history. I will mention two: 2-3 William C. Durant established GM. After buying several auto manufacturers, he offered to buy FORD for $8 million. Henry Ford agreed on one condition: the payment has to be in GOLD! Banks refused to finance Durant. He lost the deal & was fired by the GM board

I am becoming more conspiratorial than ever! 🤣

By the time Iraq started diverting shipments to Europe from Basra port, the port is closed because of an oil spill that will take an unknown time to clean!
Just a coincidence, just like all the others that export oil and gas to EU! business-standard.com/article/econom…

Short thread: 💥
1-4 We built buildings without windows that can open to "conserve energy", we ended up with mold that made people sick!
We switched to LED lights to "conserve energy" but

Scientists warned years ago that LED lights could be doing more harm than good: 👇👇👇👇 2-4 "LEDs or light-emitting diodes consist of a semiconductor chip positioned on a reflective surface; when electricity runs through the semiconductor, light is produced."

Thread..Shrinkflation:
1/n
Folgers container: 51 ounces to 43.5
Nescafe Azera Americano coffee: 100 grams to 90
Kleenex: 65 tissues to 60
Walmart Paper Towels: 168 sheets per roll to 120
Crest 3D White Radiant Mint toothpaste: 4.1 to 3.8 ounces
Dorito's: 9.75 ounces to 9.25 2/n Most “Party Size” Chips: 18 to 15.5 ounces
Chobani Flips yogurts: 5.3 ounces to 4.5
Burger King chicken nuggets: 10 to 8
Bounty Triples: 165 sheets to 147
Tillamook ice cream: 56 ounces to 48
Hefty's mega pack:90 bags to 80
Earth's Best Organic Sunny Day: 8 bars per box to 7

🔥Thread on the costs of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)! (simplified calculations)
1- In 3 years, between the start of 1979 & the end of 1981, 168 mb of crude oil were added to the SPR at an average cost of about $32/b. That is about $125/b in Today's money!

#Oil #OOTT #SPR 2- The fixed cost incurred by the taxpayer to prepare the caverns was around $4 billion. That translates to about $6/b assuming 650 mb existed from day one in 1977 (of course that was not the case, but I am trying to use the low numbers). $6 in 1977 equals about $29.40/b today!

I am having fun with this story folks! Probably I should write a comic book about it!
#Russia #Oil #EU #Biden #US #PriceCap The Biden administration and the EU want to put a cap on the price of imported Russian oil.
#Russia #Oil #EU #Biden #US #PriceCap

Thread on the national security implications of #ElectricVehicles

1- Graphite Production
Not in Europe! Not in the US! 2- Lithium Production
Not in Europe! Not in the US!

After spending hundreds of billions of dollars on wind and solar, 82.3% of global consumption of primary energy is still fossil fuel.. and it is going up in 2022!!
#Oil #Coal #Natgas #energy #FossilFuels People think Europe is going green and different from the rest of the world! Well, it has more hydro and nuclear too! Europe's dependence on fossil fuels is 70.6%! #Energy #Euroep #Russia