"One implication of these criticisms is that the current tension could be diffused after a few months. Once #Beijing felt that it had sufficiently rebuked Pelosi and punished #Taipei, the tension could subside."theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
"We are not so optimistic. Pelosi’s visit was merely a trigger. The crisis reflects deeper issues in Sino-US relations. If they are not addressed, we expect more instability in the Taiwan Strait and the evolution of great power competition into great power conflict."
"In the past few years, policymakers, opinion leaders and members of the public in China have increasingly compared America to a “paper tiger”
"On the one hand, the US is believed to be pernicious. Jealously guarding its own hegemony, it does not and cannot accept China’s rise, they say; since the Trump administration, Washington has started to systematically hollow out the “one China principle” ...
... with the intention of using Taiwan as a pawn to contain China. On the other hand, Washington is believed to lack resolve and capabilities."
This “paper tiger” line significantly complicates efforts to maintain stability across the Taiwan Strait. If Pelosi had decided to cancel her trip to Taiwan after Beijing’s protest, ...
... #China would probably have launched a propaganda campaign ridiculing Washington’s claim that its commitment to Taiwan was “rock solid”.
If the US attempts to reassure China, that risks looking like appeasement. If it signals its intention to defend the liberal international order in the Indo-Pacific, that could trigger an uncontrollable security dilemma.
Focusing on Pelosi’s visit distracts us from the deeper problems that plague Sino-US relations. Beijing needs to recognise how destabilising and counterproductive the “paper tiger” analogy is.
It complicates any attempt to construct “guard rails” that would prevent US-China competition becoming US-China confrontation.
Beijing needs to stop suggesting that the US lacks the will to guard the liberal international order in the Indo-Pacific. Jeering at America’s resolve is not only dismissive and insulting but also counterproductive.
But the US should not cease expressing its support for Taiwan. On the contrary, it should take steps to signal its commitment to Taiwan by deepening bilateral trade and economic relations, ...
... which would have less risk of provoking Beijing. In short, dealing with China requires a firm yet soft touch.
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