#Russia is approaching a cataclysmic systems collapse in #Ukraine. Why? I'll try address how we see happening today will have multiple effects, some less discernible at the moment, but yet significant in the long-term. No TL;DR on this one , sorry. 1/x
https://twitter.com/i/status/1557452163844022275
#Ukraine🇺🇦 has the ability to strike in depth. This presents 2 major problems for #ВсРФ🇷🇺. One is direct – the loss of strike systems and #logistics. The other is indirect – an impending systems collapse of logistics and the operational planning cycle. 2/x
https://twitter.com/i/status/1556989234052997122
Firstly, consider the loss of assets + the need to replace with stored assets (likely cannibalised). This effect is somewhat delayed; the #logistic evac-resupply chain spends fuel, platforms, causes delays, removes protection, and brings about the need to plan all over. 3/x
While lost assets are replaced, units are supported by nothing – neither strike systems nor logistics (if not assumed infinite). This will expose weaknesses that are identifiable and actionable for #Ukraine, if it seizes the initiative and holds on to it. 4/x
The failure of supporting combat ops will likely be a pivoting point – the relatively incremental advances and holding of positions of #Russia'n forces today will turn to losses if Ukraine is ready to exploit it (and accept own initial considerable losses). 5/x
By striking targets in depth, #Ukraine is creating a two-pronged direct effect – #Russia'n loss of immediate strike capability and the delayed onset of a degradation in logistics. 6/x
Secondly, consider the indirect effects; assets that operate from afar have less time on target and spend more fuel. With decreased sorties and increased turnover times from rear area bases only initially operative, the effect on the operational tempo will be devastating. 7/x
If this is not calculated for in the planning cycle there with be an added delay – a delay upon a delay. With the current planning cycle, lethargic to say the least, this "delay squared" will cause the #Russia'n operations to become completely unsynchronised over time. 8/x
While greater distance is only minutes/hours for air assets, it's days for ground units and weeks in the already weakened/inoperational logistic chain. Increased distance to cover also creates increased exposure without protection (as the area to protect grows huge). 9/x
#Ukraine, being the more agile party, is able to disrupt #Russia'n efforts multiple times within the same cumbersome Russian operations cycle. Russia has not been able to break this trend. Actually, it's reactions have slowed over time and decreased in volume. 10/x
As the #Russia'n kill chain gets longer, #Ukraine will get openings to further disrupt Russian efforts. This will multiply the effects on Russian troops and also allow for more mistakes and shortcomings in Ukraine's targeting and fires. 11/x
As a result #Ukraine Armed Forces 🇺🇦 will have more flexibility and more time on their hands. This will play well into Ukrainian hands, as the need for risky immediate action in the blind is removed. 12/x
The three effects – the direct, direct-delayed, and indirect-delayed – are not separate/independent. Combined, they will lead to a collapse of multiple systems and the overall capability of #ВсРФ 🇷🇺. To induce an "effect²" or "effect³" a readiness to exploit it is required. 13/x
This brings about one key factor – #intelligence. In order to bring about both direct/short-term effects and long-term capability-eroding consequences, #Ukraine needs to maintain a high standard of target selection and analysis. 14/x
As was in the beginning of the war with the some odd target selections – we may well again see some peculiar strike choices that are smartly aimed to bring about long-term effects in concert with other efforts. 15/x
As for #Russia'n logistics – General Winter is coming, but not to #Ukraine. He'll will be visiting Russia'n homes as fuel and other commodities will become scarce. This has held true for any country with a national economy turned into War Mode. And Russia is right there. 16/x
As #Russia's position becomes unbearable, it will likely put pressure on "the West" to force #Ukraine to peace/truce, while trying to hold on to whatever occupied territory is left. This will be a touchstone for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. 17/x
Russia will hold on to Crimea by threatening WW3 or nuclear strikes on Ukraine, unless forcibly dissuaded from any such course of action. 18/x
With the relatively weak and fragmented Western responses to #Russia so far, there is a danger that #Ukraine may very well create the conditions to regain total sovereignty and control of its territory, but be blocked/forced by its Western Allies to accept something less. 19/x
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