Thread by @chrisschmitz

Multiple sources reported MIG-29 today, from #ukraine Air Force. One Video that matches the reports was posted at @ennolenze .
Summarizing reports, a lot can be drawn from these spottings. Lets get into it (short thread)

https://twitter.com/ennolenze/status/1557679423280889857

@ennolenze Lets start of by looking at the jet in higher resoltion.
A #mig29, very clearly. Also six missles visible.
The four outer pylons have two identical missles, the two inner pylons have identical missles.
What can we learn from the plane, and mission, from that?

@ennolenze The inner pylon missles have very distinctive wings forward, and are very "pointy".
This strongly indicates that we are looking at R-27R, a medium range, radar guided missle, NATO Code AA-10 Alamo.
The bottom missle on this picture:
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wympel_R-…

@ennolenze The four other missles are most likely R-60M / AA-8 Aphid. At first, I thought these were AA-11 Archer, but the port wing clearly shows the triangular rear fin assembly, absent on the AA-11.
The previous posting has an R-60 on the 2nd missle from the top.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-60_(mis…

@ennolenze There could also be a conformal fuel tank between the engines, but aside from that, no other external ordnance.
We can hence derive that this plane has a 100% Air Superiority Loadout.

This is "huge" for multiple reasons. Lets look at where this plane was likley spotted:

@ennolenze Mig-29 from the #ukraine air force, operating near Donetsk, which is very close to the frontline and russia. With a 100% Air Superiority Loadout, on a Mig-29, which has a rather short range (about 250nm radius in combat).

That gives us the following, juicy conclusions:

@ennolenze a) Russia does not have Air Superiority near the frontline closest to its core state
b) Russia does not have sufficient Air Defense in the frontline or Donbas
c) Ukraine STILL has working (improvised) airfields within 200 miles of the russian border, likely on east side of Dnepr.

@ennolenze d) Russia supposedly has operational A-50 AWACS
e) Long Range "look down shoot down" Air Superiority Fighters like Mig-31 Foxhound, SU-35 etc, with supposed super modern"Amraamski" R-77 /AA-12 Adder missles, yet a 1990ies Mig29 without AWACS can fly Air Superiority?

@ennolenze f) This is only possible if #ukraine has "effective" Air Defense near the front line, that the RuAF fails to surpress
g) A Mig-29 needs ground control, that means that this Mig29 flies based on instructions derived from ukrainian Radar.
h) Russian EW is failing (see g.)

@ennolenze Now, I do not know why the russian side fails so catastrophically, but it is evident that it does, at least in the points raised.

My prediction: #ukraine will be able to gain Air Superiority, possibly Air Dominance, before the war is over.