Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Aug 12 4 tweets 2 min read
1/4 - “Actuellement, on ne voit pas se profiler, nulle part en Europe, de nouveaux sous-variants [d’#Omicron] qui sembleraient s’imposer et devenir dominants à leur tour.”
ladepeche.fr/2022/08/12/cov…
2/4 - “On pourrait donc bénéficier à la rentrée de septembre [en Europe de l’ouest] d’une accalmie [sur le front du #COVID19] un peu plus durable que les précédentes.”
3/4 - “"[L’autre] nouvelle rassurante est que #BA275, [parfois] dénommée 'Centaure', ne semble pas associé à une augmentation importante des hospitalisations et des décès en Inde, comme le pays-continent en avait fait la triste expérience avec le variant Delta au printemps 2021.”
4/4 - “La vaccination contre le #COVID19 a certes permis de fortement réduire le taux d’hospitalisations par infection et la létalité (mortalité/infection). Malheureusement la seule vaccination ne parvient pas à endiguer les vagues ni à limiter efficacement les transmissions.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

Aug 13
1/5 - L’échec de la politique du “vivre avec” est retentissant. Cette politique remet en cause le modèle de solidarité et d’humanité de nos sociétés envers les vulnérables. “Il était temps de retrouver la vie d’avant” écrit-on, mais à quel prix et n’était-ce que la seule option?
2/5 - Les vaccins ont changé la donne et permis aux moins vulnérables de croire pouvoir revivre comme avant. Fini les quarantaines et les confinements, bas les masques et bises à tous les étages.
Mais les vaccins n’ont pas beaucoup freiné la propagation des vagues de #COVID19.
3/5 - Résultat des courses : des variants très transmissibles et moins létaux ont pris le dessus et ont généré d’importantes vagues, une tension hospitalière continue sans saturation, un nombre absolu élevé de décès, de très nombreux #LongCovid: un bilan sanitaire peu réjouissant
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
1/8 -
Jan 30, 2020: #COVID19 has been declared PHEIC by the WHO, with 17,800 reported cases. Between Dec 15 and Mar 15, 217,000 cases were reported;
July 23, 22 #Monkeypox declared as PHEIC, with 17,021 rep. cases. Between May 15 and Aug 15, up to 40,000 cases should be reported.
2/8 -
Doubling times:
#COVID19 = 2-4 days in Jan, 4-14 days in Feb, 8-10 days Mar-Apr, 2020.
#Monkeypox = 7-10 days in June, 12-15 days in July, 18 days in Aug, 2022.
- Will it accelerate/keep pace/decelerate in the coming weeks?
3/8 - Initially #COVID19 has spread among religious communities with high promiscuity, then jumped to other segments of population, keeping heterogeneous spread during at least the first 6 months of the pandemic, until its 2nd wave (automn 2020).
Read 8 tweets
Aug 11
1/9 - La #poliomyélite peut-elle revenir sous nos latitudes ?
Oui, bien sûr si l'on n'y prend pas gare.
Ce fil et cet entretien sur la RTBF pour expliquer pourquoi.
rtbf.be/article/ces-ma…
2/9 - La #poliomyélite était presque éradiquée de la planète à la veille de la pandémie de #COVID19. On était passé de 125 pays rapportant des cas en 1988 à 2 pays en 2019 (Afghanistan et Pakistan).
Les foyers rapportés aujourd'hui concernent des virus d'origine vaccinale.
3/9 - Il y a deux vaccins contre la polio:
- le vaccin inactivé (injectable) qui protège contre le risque de polio grave mais pas contre la transmission du virus par les intestins;
- le vaccin vivant attenué (oral) qui protège à la fois de la transmission et des formes graves.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 11
1/9 – Aug 11 to Aug 17 –
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 – Western Europe
Improvement all over the sub-continent in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining medium to [high] mortality.
- Plateau in SE (R-eff=1.03); FL=1.04; [DK=0.97];
- Landing in DE; AU; CH; ICL; PT; FR; IRL; BE; NL; LUX; [IT; UK; SP]. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid activ: Russia (R-eff=1.28)/ Pol=1.10;
- Increase/plateau in Lith=1.09; Serb=1.05; Latv=1.07/ Rom=0.97; Slovk=0.98; Slovn=0.96;
(Slow) landing in (Hung=0.93; Bulg=0.91); Alb; Croat; Greece; Cz;
- Very low to high mortality. ImageImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Aug 11
1/4 – France (R-eff=0.72) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with medium mortality. 81.4%> 1 dose.
11,928 cases and 64 deaths/day to be reported by Aug 17, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Aug 11 to Aug 14: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 – Seven mainland Régions are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining medium (high) levels of mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=0.64);
Centre-Val-de-Loire=0.62;
Grand-Est=0.75;
Hauts-de-France=0.66;
Occitanie=0.69;
(PACA=0.74). Image
3/4 – Six mainland Régions are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with low levels of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=0.67);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=0.65;
Corse=0.82;
Ile-de-France=0.63;
Normandie=0.68;
Nouvelle-Aquit=0.71;
Pays-de-la-Loire=0.62.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 9
1/9 - “More than half of the human diseases caused by pathogens have been worsened at some point by the sort of impacts associated with the climate crisis, a new and exhaustive study of the link between disease and climatic hazards has found.”
theguardian.com/environment/20…
2/9 - “Diseases such as Zika, malaria, dengue, chikungunya and even #COVID19 have been aggravated by climate impacts such as heatwaves, wildfires, extreme rainfall and floods, the paper found.”
3/9 - “Global heating and changed rainfall patterns are expanding the range of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks and fleas, resulting in the spread of malaria, Lyme disease, West Nile virus and other conditions.”
Read 9 tweets

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