A (very) basic explainer on some aspects of the proposed #visaban to prevent tourists from #Russia entering the #EU’s Schengen zone.
(There are some shortcuts but this is basically what you need to know on some more technical aspects - & I welcome corrections!)
1/
A #visaban must hit Type C Schengen Short Stay visas
- the most common type of visa that allows entry to & movement in the jointly controlled free(r) movement area & stay of up to 90 days in any 180 day period. It can be single/double/multi entry for tourism or business. /2
Because this visa allows movement between Schengen countries it is what is currently being used by Russian tourists entering Finland & Estonia (via their land borders) to then move on to other countries in the Schengen zone (by plane) to get round the flight ban from #Russia. /3
Of the other types of Schengen visa that exist, Type A is an airport transit visa, Type B a 5 day transit visa for travelling through Schengen (now often covered by transit conditions attached to a Type C single entry tourist visa).
There are two main other relevant types /4
Type D Long Stay ‘National’ Visa - this allows stay of up to 1 year & movement within Schengen area for
- tourism or personal visits
- professional activities (eg research)
- study, training or internships
- family reasons
BUT is issued under national not Schengen conditions /5
So even though this visa allows Schengen-wide movement for up to 90 days in a 180 day period (within the 1 year overall period) states can individually make provisions to exclude Russians or others from this programme if they wish without needing to reach a common agreement. /6
Then there are special visas that are only valid on a ‘limited territory’ -the territory of the particular Schengen state that issues the visa. The most important use of this in relation to the #visaban is for ‘Humanitarian visas’ -for ppl under threat of violence/ persecution /7
It should not be a prime consideration for implementing a #visaban (those are the effects on shortening the war, shoring up our democracies, using our power & incentivizing Russians to make change) BUT This would be a key option for Russian opposition figures to get out. /8
Humanitarian visas can be -& generally are- processed quickly at embassies & consulates. Other Schengen visas (3/5 year multi entry) are not so relevant to #visaban because they are for longer term settlement- but we should continue to carefully consider to whom they are given /9
Other options for getting into EU countries lie in the realm of national residence & labour bureaucracies - & are thus for individual states to decide (which like type D visas, many have been doing). It’s actually good that Finland & Estonia have raised this #visaban /10
Because they could have hidden behind capacity constraints or acted unilaterally but instead have created a moment for the EU & the Schengen states to exercise their collective power, which they should do, as #Russia is clearly rattled by this & it can have a real effect /11
So what should the #visaban cover? I would suggest
- all Type C visas
- most Type D visas ( excluding compassionate & family grounds & some well vetted study/ research)
- Type B visas that don’t facilitate other types of eg humanitarian visas
As to what should be left open /12
We should leave open
- Humanitarian ‘territorially limited visas’
- 3/5 year multi entry visas
- long term emigration/ resettlement residence & labour permits
(But all those long term visas and permits are tightly controlled anyway meaning no #Putin enablers can get them) /13
Lastly we should be working to kick out any Putinist elements in our societies. This means fake diplomats but also fake civil society, etc. The anti-putinist civil society should welcome this & we should welcome & support them. Nonetheless, the priorities remain: /14
- #Ukraine’s victory ASAP
- Securing our societies against #Russia & renewing our democracies
- realising & using the power we have
- Regime Change in🇷🇺 (which will benefit Russians & the rest of us
As I’ve argued (see link in next tweet) the #visaban serves these goals /END
Assessing Hegseth’s comments beyond panic & hysteria. 1. On NATO- Fair & clear that this was coming. Not the end of NATO but end of European free riding.
2. On Ukraine - much worse news but Europeans CAN & MUST act for UA & for ourselves 🧵
On NATO & European Security
- Hegseth’s comments about not tolerating imbalance & dependence are the logical outcome of Europeans having let NATO become a US protectorate rather than a true alliance through their free or cheap riding.
- US also benefits a lot from NATO but not at any price.
On NATO & European Security
- its not like Europeans were not warned about this happening
- & yet, despite Russia's war and the threat we so clearly face, as well as how vulnerable lack of capabilities & defence spending made us
To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine
To counter the fatalism in Western Europe, which is in danger of becoming disastrously self-fulfilling, 100+ politicians, experts, military & intelligence professionals argue that
a coalition of willing Europeans must step up for Ukraine’s victory & our common security, regardless of the outcome of the US Election, because:
1️⃣ Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will exhaust key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace.
2️⃣ There is no credible plan for European security after any ‘ceasefire’. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
3️⃣ Failing to win endangers all European allies. A ‘Minsk III’ (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
4️⃣ A route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
5️⃣ Those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
➡️In this appeal we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, focused on a clear theory of victory.
@james_rogers @LarryPfeifferDC @ThreshedThought @StephenGethins @DerkBoswijk @AdamKinzinger @robinwagener @StanKutcher @ratnaomi @DonnaDasko @SlawomirDebski And was signed by German MPs including
It’s here!
🔥Long awaited new piece on #NeoIdealism is OUT NOW!🔥
➡️ Develops Neo-Idealism as Grand Strategy for the Free World 🌍
I Lay out 8 pillars that we need if we are to build a Neo-Idealist approach in international (& domestic) politics!
👇🧵 macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/upl…
Why do we need a grand strategy?
Because we, the world’s free societies, face multiple tests of our value & prowess - & severe & urgent threats to our security, prosperity & freedom. Threats to our democratic way of life
- but we’ve not yet got our collective act together. 🧵
The challenges we face span geopolitics, geoeconomics, climate change, technological transformation & cut across foreign & domestic policy.
We must defend our democracies against external threats
- but also renew them to defeat internal anti-democratic & illiberal forces.🧵
#Germany is both #Ukraine’s biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms
- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)
Here’s why.🧵
(& no, it’s not just Scholz, the SPD & #Taurus)
There's a lot of confusion & conflicting figures flying around, so what support has 🇩🇪 provided to 🇺🇦 in financial terms?
We use🇩🇪Govt figures (because they're unlikely to be underestimates) but pls correct if needed.
We also separate military from other aid
(to 24/02/24).🧵
German military aid to Ukraine
- €12.082bn in military aid DELIVERED
(6.6bn buying equipment for Ukraine
5bn in 2023, 1.6bn in 2022
5.2bn value kit donated from stocks, 282m training UA soldiers)
(16bn more promised for future but we don't include that as its not there yet) 🧵
The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/
Danish PM Mette Fredriksen pledged ALL of her country’s artillery to Ukraine - and called out allies who claim they have nothing left to give - saying that they manifestly do. And when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win they should Just Do It. news.yahoo.com/pm-says-denmar…
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius emphasised that Ukraine must win & be supported to do so (Olaf Scholz hasn’t said Ukraine should win & acts accordingly) -
& BP argues that as a defender of the free world Germany would have to spend beyond 2%