YOY: Net sales:⬆️179%; PAT:⬆️2280%
QoQ: Net sales:⬆️64%; PAT:⬆️813%
EPS: ₹4.88 vs ₹0.18 YoY vs ₹0.88 QoQ
Coming of a low base, still a good qtr
Highest revenue qtr ever
+5% growth over Q1 FY20
(Cont'd)
- New launches: 38 in Luggage & 127 in Backpacks
- Entered 68 new towns; added 21 & signed 23 more stores
- The Wedding Collection (Vaani Kapoor), Change The World (Varun Dhawan) campaigns +ve
- EBITDA: 18.3%; Cost controlled; PBT: ₹100cr
- Hard Luggage: 46% of Revenue
(Cont'd)
- Own & control manufacturing: 79%
- Volume growth: 8% on FY20 base
- Q1 Headwinds: 24% inflation, 90% of loss of biz from Future Group store closure, impacting 15% revenues
- Gross Margin: 49.9% vs 53.3% (Q4FY23) due to 4.9% higher raw material costs, but price⬆️ 2.1%
(Cont'd)
- Covid resulted in higher tailwind in value segment
- unorganized market yielding into organized
- New capacity in hard luggage (polypropylene)
- Exports at 5% of Revenue
- FY23 Capex plan of ~₹50 cr; payback in 18-24 mths
- EBITDA Margin expectation (FY23): 18-20%
(Cont'd)
Management Comments:
- Market share at lower 40's; possibly improving
- Competition intensified
- Industry profitability will stabilize
- Demand to sustain; inflation to taper
- Value segment growing faster
- Acuteness of seasonality over time reduced
Stock Price notes:
Stock down:
: 9.7% since result
: 14.7% from next day (after result) high of ₹685
: 24.6% in FY23 from high of ₹774.6
: CMP: ₹585.6, back at 6th Jul level; negated pre-results gain
: P/BV: 13.4; PE: 62; Mkt Cap: ₹8287cr
• New scheme for branding promotion of Millet Product & domestic production of oil seeds
• Emergency Credit Line Guarantee to continue till 31st Mar FY23 with new outlay of 50 Lakh Cr
• Inter Operation between Post Office & Bank Account
• Digital Banking Unit in 75 districts
• E Passport with embedded chip to be introduced
• 68% of defense capex budget for domestic firms
• Capex 7.50 Lakh Cr in FY23 (up by 35.4%)
• Sovereign Green Bond introduction for energy & allied sector funding
• GIFT IFSC – International Arbitration Tribunal to be set up
#Q4FY21 Revenue: 3037cr, up 26% yoy
Contribution:
India Beverages:1205cr; Rev. growth: 60%; Vol growth: 23%
India Foods: 641cr; 22%; 18%
US Coffee: 313cr; 5%; -2%
Int. Tea: 515cr; 2%; -7%
Foodservice: 47cr; -34%; -18%
Tata Coffee: 280cr; 31%; 31%
Financials:
Revenue:⬆️26%, 3037cr
EBITDA:⬆️1%, 317cr
EBITDA Mar: 10.4%;⬇️260bps
PBT:⬆️6% at 262cr
PBT Mar: 8.6%;⬇️170bps
Cons.PAT:⬆️161% at 74cr; +750bps Margin
EPS:⬆️170bps, at Rs.0.58
Net cash: 2421cr
Dividend: 4.05/share
India business good, Intl biz soft, tea inflation high.
Portfolio:
India
Tata Salt: Largest salt brand
Tata Tea: 2nd Largest tea brand
Himalayan: #1 natural mineral water brand
Tata Sampann: Leading brand in pulses.
International
8oclock: 4th largest R&G coffee brand in USA
Tetley Tea: 4th largest tea brand in UK & largest in Canada.
), of all the sectors that performed well over the last 29 yrs, broken down in to three decades, there were some interesting insights.
Barring the period between...
1991-2000, the next 2 decades saw stocks from chemical sector perform very well. Of the 973 stocks that gave >100% returns (simple returns: no div. reinvestments) between 2000-2010, 101 were from the chemical sector.
Likewise, between 2010-2020, 82 chemical stocks topped charts.
Just yesterday, I checked for all BSE Companies with 10 Yr CAGR >25% & found 189 stocks, of which 41 stocks were from Chemical sector. A quick glance through the list brings a smile to my face, as many of these were good quality stocks with decent credentials - Portfolio worthy.
There is strong recovery in economy
Covid cases, fatality rate easing
Stock market capitalization at record high
Forex reserves at $560 bn
Energy consumption see 12% growth in Oct
Note: Only English notes will be provided, no translation😎
GST collections good, Bank credit improves by 5.1%, FDI inflows see 13% rise.
RBI predicts the possibility of a strong recovery by Q3, 1 quarter ahead of expectations.
Moody's revises India GDP forecast for:
CY20 to -8.9% from -9.6% earlier.
CY21 to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier.