Thread by @althecat

Hi Claire, I have now re-read your report in full, incl. Footnotes and Appendices and a lot of the links.

And I thank you for your willingness to engage on this.

I will do so in the manner that you have opened this discussion. Focusing on facts.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923853757292545

In terms of "extending and updating" your first investigation of this took place as the war broke out and resulted in this story in the Washington Post.on
November 17th - washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

And the conclusion in this initial story based on "my analysis of nearly 90,000 recent tweets, along with interviews with Ethiopia’s diaspora." Is the same as that in the final report. Namely that the SM information activity which accompanied the start of the war was "authentic."

I presume that these interviews from your initial research formed the initial basis of the wider inquiry that became the report which we are now discussing. At this early stage though it appears you had only spoken to Tigray communities.

And this @claireLwilmot (tagging you so you will see this) - is what I meant by "updating and extending" your research.

It would be helpful next to name the central question:

Was this "authentic and spontaneous" activity or was it planned as part of the war effort?

@claireLwilmot Your response to this is fairly simple I think.

Namely, I interviewed the people involved at the time and they said it was spontaneous. I believe them.

This is a quote from your article.

“It is an organized movement,” a Tigrayan community organizer in Canada noted during an interview. “Documents, even an online webinar, taught people how to share materials on Twitter,” he said.

Correction: This voice is clearly from a pro-Ethiopian Govt voice: "Others say they joined Twitter to balance the Tigrayan narrative. One user told me that he grew up under TPLF rule and joined Twitter “after noticing TPLF supporters trying to influence international opinion."

This early report of @claireLwilmot, just a fortnight after the war started also contains data about account creation.

Upticks in Twitter account creation accompanied news, with a massive increase following the Nov 4 TPLF attack - from an average of 21 to 245 per day

Is this scale of spontaneous growth possible - maybe - but we don't know. On Nov. 6th, two days after the attack StandWithTigray.com was registered and 5 hashtags launched.
#TigrayGenocide
#StopWarOnTigray + var
#StandWithTigray + var

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1558865964283871234?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

But the question no-one can answer is why #TigrayGenocide is in there - and it arrived before November 6th - I think on the 4th - while the TPLF's surprise attack was underway.

As I write this now there are still 100 #TigrayGenocide tweets now, 22 months later.

Moreover @claireLwilmot you acknowledge that the attack by TPLF was pre-planned and according to TPLF a pre-emptive strike.

We also have a TPLF strategy document from October laying out the rationale and plan for the war.

But one of the things you do not address in your report is how #TigrayGenocide as a hashtag was launched at the outset of the war by TPLF when no genocide could have at that time have been committed.

In sharp contrast your data shows that the non-Tigray Ethiopia Social Media community did not manage to get organised in any meaningful way until towards the end of November - by which time organised Tigray SM activity was delivering over 20,000 tweets a day.

I'd love to hear your explanation of this @claireLwilmot, is this because the TPLF activists were more motivated and capable, or was it because they were prepared.

And how did you determine conclusively to your satisfaction that their was no bot activity involved?

@claireLwilmot Particularly when we get to the Axum Massacre announcement during which 140,000 tweets were posted in a 24 hour period. 6000 an hour.for 24 hours. If they had 2000 dedicated activists that would be 70 tweets each or 28 if they had 5000 activists.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1558880194936569864?s=20&t=xPdVGx8QrUVokPoMXCUntA

So that's my initial response @claireLwilmot ... I struggle to understand your analytical methodology and conclusions from the data you collected. You appear to have just decided based on a few interviews that this was not organised and pre-planned.

Based on them telling you so.

Addressing each additional tweet in order.

I have already addressed why I thought you had published twice - the first publication being in the Washington Post. Which contained the core erroneous conclusion IMO, possibly leading to confirmation bias.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923856844300288?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

I understand that this was your goal, but I fear it was founded in naivety about who you were dealing with. Understanding TPLF, it's history & the way they work is not for the faint-hearted. And being truthful on this would be hard in your chosen field.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923858903793666?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Perhaps that is because you did not look hard enough. Your report discusses lobbying but failed to look properly at @batten_von >> montagueyork.com

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923861193891841?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

The firm appears to have appeared prior to the war for the purpose of providing lobbying services in support of the war - while it's domain was registered in October 2019 it didn't create a twitter account untill January 2021. And it didn't have any other clients.

But it started its lobbying efforts in relation to the war in Ethiopia on October 31st [einpresswire.com/sources/u42754…] initially purporting to be representing Oromo activists.

. @batten_von's first ever press release on Oct 31st - 4 days before the war - was on behalf of the "The Oromo Legacy Leadership and Advocacy Association (OLLAA)" [Link >> einpresswire.com/article/529671….]
A key player in the drama that followed Sen. @ChrisCoons signed this letter.

Jr. Sen. for Delaware Senator Coons later served as Biden's Envoy to Ethiopia twice. The OLLAA issued 30 press releases most condemning the Govt. of Ethiopia through to December 2021 and its website features videos with Tigray Activist @meazaG_ and @Kvonbatten in pole position.

All of which points to a well organised plan by the TPLF to undertake this war, and creates doubts about wether @StandWithTigray and @OmnaTigray were really a spontaneous genuine public reponse to news events.

A question @claireLwilmot: This is for the initial tweets - the 90,000 reviewed in early November - but what about the activity that took place on the day of the Axum Massacre - did you also do a bot check on its authenticity? That spike looks inauthentic.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923863114784773?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Ok @claireLwilmot but the longevity of #TigrayGenocide is extraordinary, and you have not examined it all. Why do you think it dipped during #nomore?

While I accept once the narrative took hold it became largely self sustaining, you have no proof of this.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923865530703874?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Also throughout this war @Twitter, bless its heart, was not the front line - though impt. TPLF is very active on other social media platforms - especially Facebook - and has several TV/Video platforms - most notably TMH - non-stop on this.

All of which require substantial resources. They also clearly have resources attached to active media communications, attacking reporters and academics who counter them, and diplomatic resources. Outside your scope. But relevant to the overall picture.

Agreed. But bots aren't the issue we are discussing. The issue is the initiation of the information campaign at the outset of the war - and what your data shows.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923867648843778?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

The thing about the launch of the Axum Massacre report is that it occurred relatively early - this war began under the cover of Trumpmania, and most of the world had tuned out. This story was powerful but it needed to explode.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923870215757835?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

... and explode it clearly did. Thank you for pointing this out. IMO 140,000 tweets in a day is not in my opinion possible. Comparing it with #NoMore is interesting, but #NoMore had a completely different ethos, it was positive, about ending harm.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923875760603136?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Thank you for sharing this @claireLwilmot. I presume from the fact that we can see this graph that you have additional data/research - which might tell us more, i.e. how geographically spread the use of #NoMore was, demographic profile etc.

That said these are apples and oranges #NoMore was an expression of frustration in the direction of travel of the world & going global in a way that #TigrayGenocide never could.

I would also like to know why it was shut down by @Twitter and the @StateDept & why @Jack resigned.

Or the non-existence of them - which is what your report does.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923878772211712?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

So you are saying that false fears of disinformation are dangerous in some way. This seems a reasonable conclusion - and is in fact born out by what has happened with the expulsion of nearly all foreign journalists.

But that doesn't necessarily attribute the blame where it ought to lie. Doing a rigourous analysis of all the media coverage of this conflict would be possible - the volume is not high - and I am convinced it would show alarming levels of group-think & cowardice.

If you were to examine the Tigray/TPLF information operations in their fullness you would understand that they really are full spectrum and include attacks on journalists/publications/academics they disagree with and positive affirmation for those who toe the line.

This is indeed a terrible thing. Like for example @DrTedros dismissing out of hand the facts that TPLF forces destroyed 1000s of hospitals and schools, displaced millions and murdered and raped their way through Amhara.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923883616550915?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Your co-author works for Rand Corporation Europe = the defence/security establishment. And unlike you she was very unwilling to engage in responding to criticism about the report.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923885625704451?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Dear @claireLwilmot, this exchange is welcome and I am grateful. But this didn't happen in August '21. Releasing the code etc - great stuff. I missed that you were lead author in August sorry.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923887806750721?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

I have not addressed the text of the report, but I am afraid for those of us who are deeply familiar with this, your qualitative analysis of the situation appeared very shallow. I will not respond to this but I think you ought to respond to @Qnie_Addis.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923890092658695?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

. @Qnie_Addis's thread is here, and it would help clear the air if you were to try to respond to his points, which are clear, concise, and I think correct.

https://twitter.com/Qnie_Addis/status/1448006326483918854

I am sorry that you have received and probably will continue to receive unpleasant online feedback. But the reality of this war is deathly horrible, and for Ethiopians who have endured this war - and its accompanying information war - it is traumatising.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923892210688001?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

And I think if you want to hear the truth, its this, your data is very important, your research into this could have been extremely valuable. But you have made a lot of assumptions which the lived experience of this war does not fit - for e.g. that Amnesty, UN & HRW are reliable.

I think if you were willing to look more closely at your data and/or share information about other things that are of interest to those who are involved in this information war it would be greatly appreciated.

https://twitter.com/claireLwilmot/status/1558923894253387778?s=20&t=OhDRPuaarddEsouJ_ypw0Q

Everyone is interested in what happened to #NoMore.

Finally @claireLwilmot no need to respond to this unless you want to. I appreciate you taking the time to look at my thread. Your data really is very important, but it may not mean what you think it does.

/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll