Chinese military exercises after Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit have resulted in the most dangerous crisis over #Taiwan since 1996. Much of the commentary around this issue in the past 2 weeks has focussed on the dynamics of the US-China strategic competition. 1/15 (Pic: @abcnews) 
2/ But, what of the Taiwanese? The Taiwanese people have lived with Chinese threats & coercion for decades. However, events of recent weeks have laid bare for Taiwanese citizens how China has eschewed any lingering ambiguity over forceful reunification. chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-f…
3/ To complicate matters for Taiwanese government leaders, the last couple of weeks have demonstrated challenges with the US policy of #strategic ambiguity. It is a nuanced policy, and it worked well enough when #China was too weak to take #Taiwan by force.
4/ But #Taiwan must now construct its defence policy and international relationships in an environment where the US President, the US Department of State and US Congress this year have all offered differing interpretations of the current policy.
5/ This is further complicated by ongoing debate about military strategy in Taiwan. The deliberation about Taiwanese national defence has centred on the implementation of something called the Overall Defence Concept. warontherocks.com/2021/11/taiwan…
6/ The Overall Defence Concept (ODC) is based on the premise that Taiwan’s military cannot win a conventional war against China in the Taiwan Strait, nor impose decisive costs on the modernised People’s Liberation Army through attrition. thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwan…
7/ The ODC would focus on preserving the military force in the event of an invasion and the conduct of asymmetric attacks on invading Chinese forces. Winning was defined as the Chinese failing to occupy Taiwan. hoover.org/sites/default/…
8/ There is an old saying that there is nothing harder to change in a military organization than an idea. The implementation of this new defence strategy for #Taiwan is a great example.
9/ Once the author of the Overall Defence Concept retired in 2019, a return to a more conventional approach was embraced.
10/ While the 2021 National Defense Review saw a shift back in the direction of asymmetric capabilities, it has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has forced home that Taiwan must develop a modernised defence strategy. ustaiwandefense.com/tdnswp/wp-cont…
11/ Despite a boost in defence spending, #Taiwan lacks sufficient long-range precision weapons to inflict casualties on a Chinese blockade or invasion force. And it needs to demonstrate the ability to generate regional & global influence for its cause. taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…
12/ Recent events will probably result in an increased tempo of PLA military operations around Taiwan. This is a dangerous and potentially incendiary situation. And it offers China plausible cover for the concentration of forces for a future blockade or invasion. (Pic: @CSIS)
13/ Hopeful talk of resets and ‘return to normality’ are unlikely to succeed in the face of current Chinese aggression. Ironically, China’s actions last week may paint Xi further into a corner with his domestic audience on the ‘Taiwan issue’. nytimes.com/2022/08/04/bus…
14/ For many observers, at stake is the future of Chinese and American influence in the western Pacific. But for the people of Taiwan, the stakes are much higher.
15/ Like the citizens of Ukraine, they know that their struggle against the authoritarian regime in Beijing is existential. They have much thinking and preparing to do, and very little time to do it. End. abc.net.au/news/2022-08-1…
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