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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

Aug 16 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

After ~15 months, I've just passed 10k followers on Twitter / #fintwit. My sincere thanks to all who follow me & who read the Value Situations newsletter. I am working through a pipeline of very interesting, idiosyncratic equity ideas & I look forward to sharing these w/ readers;

You can read about my approach and newsletter offering here - valuesits.substack.com/about

For a cost of $500/year or $50/month, paid subscribers receive 2 - 3 actionable public equity ideas per quarter, presented in a buy-side investment memo format -

I'm a former PE/special sits investor that worked at one of the world's largest private investment firms & the newsletter is now my full-time job, that is to generate thoughtful & actionable ideas for subscribers that supplements their own idea origination process;

I believe the newsletter itself is a value situation in that subscribers get institutional/buy-side quality, actionable ideas for a very small fraction of the cost of employing a buy-side analyst full-time.

My latest actionable idea has been very well received by subscribers and is up ~12%+ in the last ~2 weeks since publication, yet remains a deeply undervalued post-spin off play on energy security and the energy transition offering ~150% upside IMO - valuesits.substack.com/p/gas-panic

If this sounds of interest to you, please visit my Substack page to learn more, and please consider signing up for either the free or paid tiers - valuesits.substack.com

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

@ValueSituations

May 3

Market Risk & A Buffett Special Sit🧵- Of all the coverage of the Berkshire $BRK annual meeting over the weekend, what I found most interesting was the news of $BRK 's ENORMOUS special situation trade via a merger arb play on the $MSFT / $ATVI deal –
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Is this one of the largest $ merger arb trades ever? – based on media reports, $BRK acquired an incremental ~7.6% or ~59.5m shares of $ATVI post-31 Dec-21, which at avg. price of ~$80 post deal announced = a ~$4.76bn investment -

Merger arb is a classic special sit strategy, and many are unaware that it was a key one for Buffett in his pre-Berkshire days managing the Buffett Partnership funds, when “Workouts” as Buffett called merger arb comprised 30%-40% of his portfolio;

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

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Mar 4

The Russian army’s assault on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is alarming, and has triggered a sell-off in uranium equities on ASX that is expected to flow through to Euro & US names today; however this sell-off seems misplaced considering the facts-

Rather than rehash others’ analysis of the situation I thought I’d compile a short thread of why this (abhorrent) attack on Zapprizhzhia is NOT a nuclear disaster scenario, based on informed sources -

@energybants

From @energybants -

https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1499546516293357568

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

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Mar 2

Hibernia REIT Plc $HBRN #HBRN is possibly the cheapest office REIT in Europe, at 0.66x NAV w/ a 4.7% dividend yield. HBRN owns a prime Dublin office portfolio, v. lowly geared at ~20% LTV -

$HBRN's valuation seems truly anomalous when one considers the quality of it's portfolio, comprising prime city offices leased to sticky government/tech/ blue chip tenant base, which had one of the strongest rent collection rates of any REIT across Europe through COVID lockdowns

irishtimes.com/business/comme…

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

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Sep 29, 2021

@EdAtProactive

Pantheon Resources $panr $pthrf CEO Jay Cheatham gave a brief update interview yesterday with @EdAtProactive - Here are the key takeways IMO:

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/search/advance…

1. Valuation – it was highlighted that over last 12 months $panr shares have gone 2x to a mkt cap of ~$550m (at time of interview recording) since the last fundraise when $30m was placed in Nov-20 at £0.31/share -

While this seems like a strong performance, Jay Cheatham highlighted a number of relevant points to put this in context:
1.A. At time of Nov-20 f/r oil was $40/barrel – today oil is ~$75 & the impact of oil increase to NPV of Alkaid project ALONE more than offsets the 2x increase

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

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Sep 28, 2021

I'm a fundamental analyst and don't subscribe to technical analysis, but sometimes a chart can tell an interesting story better than words can - I've been looking at energy commodity charts while studying $panr and some observations -

#Oil is a real laggard vs. #natgas and #coal - despite being up ~55% YTD it hasn't really participated in the energy price surge to same extent as its fellow fossil fuels - here's the price lag YTD, showing oil is well behind:

Here's oil lagging over last 3 yrs chart -

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Conor Maguire | Value Situations

@ValueSituations

Sep 28, 2021

Oil in the news again this morning as global energy concerns increase - oil now at a 3 year high above $80/barrel, and $panr is up ~5.5% on the London AIM market this morning -