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Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
@JasonSalemi
Aug 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/ Here's a quick #COVID update - I prepare a weekly report for my college so I thought I should share a broad overview (with #AltText)

VARIANTS: BA.5 continues to have increasing dominance over other variants, representing ~ 9 in 10 new cases This is a CDC image that should variant distributions over t
2/ REPORTED CASES: Though a significant underestimate of actual circulating infections, it is clear that reported cases are down in most areas in the US.

Florida is down 31% relative to two weeks ago (now to ~7,000 cases per day). This is a series of trend lines in the shape of a US map, cl
3/ WASTEWATER DATA: The decrease in reported cases in Florida is supported by Biobot Analytics data in 6 large counties over the past 6 weeks. This is a series of trend lines for 6 large Florida counties
4/ HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS: In Florida, although we still do have among the highest confirmed COVID-19 admission rates in the country, we are seeing a marked decrease in hospitalizations, hospital census, and patients in the ICU.

Below are confirmed adult COVID admissions over time. These are trend lines for confirmed COVID hospital admission
5/ ADULT INPATIENT COVID CENSUS:

LEFT: Similar story in which most (but certainly not all) states are showing a decreasing census in the past week or two.

RIGHT: Florida numbers over the last 8 weeks. These are COVID adult inpatient census for every state sinceThis is a table showing Florida admission, census, and ICU m
6/ CDC COMMUNITY LEVELS: These improvements are welcomed because last Thursday's update showed improvement nationally on CDC's hospitalization-based county risk metric, but not in FL.

We will have updated numbers in two days - hoping for a much better picture. This is a series of two stacked bars graphs showing the CDC
7/ CDC TRANSMISSION LEVELS: Again, these will be updated in two days, but transmission levels remain high, not just because of these rates, but because we know they are such an underestimate of infections.

I expect the outlook Thursday (with the update) to be better. These are county-level maps just showing pronounced transmis
8/ DEATHS

LEFT: In Florida, we have hit a peak (during the current wave) of ~70 deaths per day (hit on July 22). So, it would be wrong to call this wave “mild”.

RIGHT: For context, we’ve had 4 waves in Florida in which average daily deaths exceeded 200 per day (delta was >400). A trend line showing COVID death rates for all states since Although the current wave in Florida has a peak of 69 deaths
9/ VACCINATIONS (for seniors)

Whereas 90% of seniors in Florida have completed a primary series, only 57%got the first booster, and 20%the second booster. Whereas 90% of seniors in Florida have completed a primary s
10/ DASHBOARD

For more details, and interactive visualizations allowing drilldown for all states, please visit 👇

Stay safe!

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com

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More from @JasonSalemi

Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023
Brief COVID update

When speaking with NPR last week, I said the plateauing of hospitalizations for 3 weeks made me feel like a downturn was coming.

In FL, the data are suggestive of improvements in the # of people being hospitalized w/ COVID.

1/ Image
The state-specific trends in the COVID hospital census since June 1 also suggest we are seeing a recent decrease in FL (dk purple), the US as a whole (black), and a number of states.

Yes, FL still has among the highest rates, but we also have one of the oldest populations.

2/ Image
If we indeed see a prolonged decrease in COVID hospitalization census, many of the largest states, who have been below previous pandemic years, will start their decrease right as they approach (but do not exceed) 2022 rates.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
May 29, 2023
Sorry for the delay everyone, a lot going on personally. But I have modified my dashboard to accommodate the CDC reporting changes.

My site focuses on:
1) Hospitalization-based county risk levels
2) Detailed hosp trends
3) Deaths

with links out for wastewater, variants, vax

1/
The "Risk Indicators" page is similar to the older page, but the data upon which indicators are based has changed. There are no longer "risk levels" and "transmission levels", rather levels based exclusively on "confirmed" COVID hospital admission rates over the prior 7 days.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Hospitalizations" page has not changed much. Still starts out with a Florida-centric look and then gives a lot of state- and age-specific census and admission numbers, rates, and rankings.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Feb 24, 2023
It's been a while since I've done a #COVID update.

These are national weekly @CDCgov "community levels" based primarily on hospitalization rates.

This past week has been the "best" since April of last year with <1% of the population living in a high-level county.

1/ Image
Of course, this comes with the following caveats according to the CDC, with likely underestimation of levels in Hawaii and Mississippi, and overestimation in several counties in Georgia and Arizona.

2/ Image
Transmission levels are likely to be grossly underreported, but as we look at them over time, are showing modest improvement (LEFT).

This is in agreement with the regional wastewater monitoring data, which also shows improvements over the last 6 weeks (RIGHT).

3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Dec 2, 2022
1/ Updated my #COVID19 dashboard - wanted to do a quick thread on some clearly emerging trends.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
2/ Below are adult inpatient hospital census rates for each state since May 1, 2022. Only "confirmed" (as opposed to suspected) COVID hospitalizations are included.

The orange and red coloring suggests recent increases over the past week. Image
3/ But for context, below are the inpatient census stats for adults throughout the pandemic - for most states, we remain well below the worst parts of the pandemic (not that that should be the bar we are trying to avoid). Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 16, 2022
1/ I've continued to see graphics like the one below served as evidence that COVID vaccines do not work.

Why? Because the NUMBER of COVID-19 deaths among vax people is nearly the same (or even more than) among unvaccinated people.

Quick 11-tweet thread on why this is misleading
2/ I'm going to keep this SIMPLE. This is NOT about infection-acquired immunity vs. vax-acquired immunity. This is just about counts vs. rates.

Assume that vax efficacy is 90% in people 65+.

Monthly COVID mortality rates:
- not vaccinated (20 per 100k)
- vaccinated (2 per 100k)
3/ Assume 3 different vax realities among seniors in the US, and assume pop of 50 million.

Vax rates of 5%, 50%, and 95%.

In the figure, under each scenario, I show the vax vs. non-vax distribution of:
1. the population
2. COVID deaths
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
@cmzimmer1803 - a few thoughts

1/ We absolutely should be concerned with the changing proportions of variants that are ESTIMATED to be circulating in recent weeks.

Due to their characteristics and increasing make-up of new cases, the pose a threat.
2/ Clearly, part of our genomic surveillance efforts are to have TIMELY information when more concerning variants are increasing in relative prevalence. In this case, it appears we lost some time (I was wondering why those variants were not yet showing up).
3/ BUT, I don't tend to jump to an accusation of something nefarious.

The beginning of the footnote states that variants circulating <1% are grouped into "other". Image
Read 6 tweets

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