The Ukrainian attack on Russian bases in Crimea in the past week has brought attention back to a war which many in the west have largely lost sight of. In this thread, an examination of the prospects for a Ukrainian victory. 1/18 🧵 
2/ An important caveat - predicting outcomes in war is impossible. But, nations can do certain things that give them a better chance of success. The aim of this thread is to explore five foundational requirements for Ukraine to win this war. smh.com.au/world/europe/u…
3/ First, Western political support has been a crucial element of Ukraine’s defence. While remaining short of ‘boots on the ground’, Western support underpins the flow of weapons into the nation, and an international coalition overseeing a regime of economic sanctions.
4/ Ensuring that the west has the strategic patience to support Ukraine to the end of this war is major task of the Ukrainian government and its diplomats. And elected officials in western nations must continue to convince their people of the need to combat Russian aggression.
5/ A second foundation for Ukraine to win is economic support. The Russian invasion has had an impact on Ukraine’s manufacturing, mining and agricultural industries. It has also seen Ukrainian ports, through which export revenues are generated, captured by the Russians.
6/ Ukraine requires economic assistance to continue government services and to sustain the massive costs of the war. Economic assistance from the west must continue if Ukraine is to sustain its defence and eject the Russians from its territory. worldbank.org/en/news/press-…
7/ A third foundation for a Ukrainian victory is military support. Modern wars, particularly those of the scale being fought In Ukraine, rapidly consume munitions, equipment and humans. It is important for Western nations to continue, and increase, the flow of weapons to Ukraine.
8/ The west has provided billions of dollars in weapons and munitions, including some of its most sophisticated precision weapons. NATO has also started a training program for Ukrainian soldiers, but it will have to increase this in scale in the coming months.
9/ The World War Two Empire Air Training Scheme potentially provides a model for a enlarged, distributed but common NATO training for Ukrainian soldiers, planners and leaders. awm.gov.au/articles/encyc…
10/ A fourth foundation for Ukraine’s success is leadership. President Zelensky’s words "I need ammunition, not a ride" unified his people & gained him global influence. This has been essential for economic, humanitarian, diplomatic, intelligence and military assistance.
11/ But it has also been clear that the military leadership of Ukraine has fought a clever and sophisticated military campaign against the Russians, while also supporting a global influence campaign. This must be sustained if Ukraine is to win this war. politico.com/news/2022/04/0…
12/ Finally, the Ukrainians must win on the battlefield. If the other foundational elements are present, they will underpin success in the close combat that is essential to defeating the Russians. Engaging in combat is the ultimate expression of will of the Ukrainians.
13/ They understand that theirs is an existential fight. The Ukrainians must fight and recapture their land if they are to win this war.
14/ As eminent scholar & strategist @lawdavf notes “there are still reasons for Ukraine to take land. Until territory changes hands and the maps are amended it is hard to convince doubters that the tide of war has turned in Ukraine’s favour.” samf.substack.com/p/winning-thro…
15/ The period between now and the northern winter is likely to see continued Ukrainian attacks across the south the take back their territory, their cities and their ports. Offensive campaigns are much more difficult than defensive ones. And there is no certainty of success.
16/ But the Ukrainians have demonstrated the value of courage, intelligence, influence, and most of all, heart, in these past six months.
17/ Importantly they will have demonstrated to democracies everywhere that regardless of their size, they are all capable of standing up to the ruthless dictatorships that currently threaten the international order. End smh.com.au/world/europe/u…
18/ Thank you to the following whose images were used in this thread: @KyivIndependent @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU
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