PART-1: APPROACH
A Master thread on smallcap and microcap investing for particular marketcap range 500cr to 1000cr and its success rate for last 10 years 2012 to 2022 with conclusion & observation on winners and losers.🧵
#investing #investors #StockMarket #microcap #smallcap
A Master thread on smallcap and microcap investing for particular marketcap range 500cr to 1000cr and its success rate for last 10 years 2012 to 2022 with conclusion & observation on winners and losers.🧵
#investing #investors #StockMarket #microcap #smallcap
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In the last thread we had seen total 116 stocks in marketcap range 500cr to 1000cr, lets have a try with basic fundamental approach and check
what is the result.
In the last thread we had seen total 116 stocks in marketcap range 500cr to 1000cr, lets have a try with basic fundamental approach and check
what is the result.
https://twitter.com/VishalMna9/status/1546873424160518149
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ATH: All time high, 40 stocks out of 116 were not able to make fresh all time high after 2012. Some of them generated returns from 2012,
but they were not able to breach their previous ATH. Eg: Sanwaria, Uttam Galva Steel, mercator.
ATH: All time high, 40 stocks out of 116 were not able to make fresh all time high after 2012. Some of them generated returns from 2012,
but they were not able to breach their previous ATH. Eg: Sanwaria, Uttam Galva Steel, mercator.
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I went to check what was wrong here and found that most of junk stocks made all time high near 2008, i checked for the reason of ATH that time
and got to know that "ghore ki race me ghadhe bhi daur rhe the" back in 2008 crash.
I went to check what was wrong here and found that most of junk stocks made all time high near 2008, i checked for the reason of ATH that time
and got to know that "ghore ki race me ghadhe bhi daur rhe the" back in 2008 crash.
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Loss making: After filtering from ATH, removed all loss making companies which still managed to make new All time high, 6 stocks were removed,
Titagarh Wagon, Zuari Ind, Essar Shipping still a favourite of many didn't went anywhere in last 10 years.
Loss making: After filtering from ATH, removed all loss making companies which still managed to make new All time high, 6 stocks were removed,
Titagarh Wagon, Zuari Ind, Essar Shipping still a favourite of many didn't went anywhere in last 10 years.
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Future consumer, one of the favourite stock of many in 2013-16 over hyped by the name of Big Bazar and fmcg was also a loss making company hitting
new All time highs, today also we have many such examples. #Dmart was hiding in bushes that time.
Future consumer, one of the favourite stock of many in 2013-16 over hyped by the name of Big Bazar and fmcg was also a loss making company hitting
new All time highs, today also we have many such examples. #Dmart was hiding in bushes that time.
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ROCE: Filtered remaining stocks with a minimum ROCE of 6% average, high ROCE shows supply side dominance and is required to filter out slow growers.
ROCE: Filtered remaining stocks with a minimum ROCE of 6% average, high ROCE shows supply side dominance and is required to filter out slow growers.
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Stable margins: Margins should not fall more then 50% and should not go more then double, this helped in removing all commoditised bussiness from list.
HEG was filtered out as its OPM expaned from 9 to 63% in 6 months after hitting ATH, would have taken entry & exit in profit.
Stable margins: Margins should not fall more then 50% and should not go more then double, this helped in removing all commoditised bussiness from list.
HEG was filtered out as its OPM expaned from 9 to 63% in 6 months after hitting ATH, would have taken entry & exit in profit.
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After using just these 4 basic fundamental approach, finally landed with only 50 stocks, even out of this Tree house, Vivimed, TIL, etc were stocks
that we cannot avoid with basic fundamental approach. Winners were: Tata Elsxi, ATUL, Escorts, Hatsun, JB chemical, Vguard,etc.
After using just these 4 basic fundamental approach, finally landed with only 50 stocks, even out of this Tree house, Vivimed, TIL, etc were stocks
that we cannot avoid with basic fundamental approach. Winners were: Tata Elsxi, ATUL, Escorts, Hatsun, JB chemical, Vguard,etc.
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Assuming a bulk investment of 25lakh, where 50k equally is allocated to each stock, a total invested amount of 25lakh would have converted to 1.5crore over
10 years with a growth CAGR of 20%.
Assuming a bulk investment of 25lakh, where 50k equally is allocated to each stock, a total invested amount of 25lakh would have converted to 1.5crore over
10 years with a growth CAGR of 20%.
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Conclusion: There are few things a stock cannot skip in its journey, like it cannot skip hitting ATH and go 50X or more, it cannot expand its bussiness without growing
margins, assets, sales and profits. Stories are secondry these factors are something real.
Conclusion: There are few things a stock cannot skip in its journey, like it cannot skip hitting ATH and go 50X or more, it cannot expand its bussiness without growing
margins, assets, sales and profits. Stories are secondry these factors are something real.
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There is a 95:5 ratio in companies also, 5 moat and 95 no-moat, whenever this moat company is not able to serve its customer due to capacity
constaints then the no-moat company comes into picture, i.e they are cyclic.
There is a 95:5 ratio in companies also, 5 moat and 95 no-moat, whenever this moat company is not able to serve its customer due to capacity
constaints then the no-moat company comes into picture, i.e they are cyclic.
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Once the new capacity of moat comapany comes into picture then the sales margins of no-moat company goes down, this is the reason they dont go anywhere instead
of new stories and trading in a strict range.
Once the new capacity of moat comapany comes into picture then the sales margins of no-moat company goes down, this is the reason they dont go anywhere instead
of new stories and trading in a strict range.
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The crash of 2008 is like a barrier for all non performers stocks, maximum are not able to breach it. If your portfolio stock has not hit all time high in last 3-5 years, its
time to review, re-check and accept the reality.
The crash of 2008 is like a barrier for all non performers stocks, maximum are not able to breach it. If your portfolio stock has not hit all time high in last 3-5 years, its
time to review, re-check and accept the reality.
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Observation:
The crash of 2018 in mid and smallcap plus covid crash is again a barrier for non-performing stocks? Are these stocks not able to breach its all time high
that it made before 2018 or covid crash?
Observation:
The crash of 2018 in mid and smallcap plus covid crash is again a barrier for non-performing stocks? Are these stocks not able to breach its all time high
that it made before 2018 or covid crash?
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I couldn't find any turn-around here, remember the formula for winner was not the transition from BAD to GOOD, it was always from OK to GOOD to BETTER and
finally BETTER than the BEST, in long term there is nothing like turn-around.
I couldn't find any turn-around here, remember the formula for winner was not the transition from BAD to GOOD, it was always from OK to GOOD to BETTER and
finally BETTER than the BEST, in long term there is nothing like turn-around.
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Its like 1 turn-around story true out of 100 and I bet retail investor will end up in 99 category for sure. Is there a solid proof of how many turn-arounds
have really become multibagger? Then why are we running after turn-around.
Its like 1 turn-around story true out of 100 and I bet retail investor will end up in 99 category for sure. Is there a solid proof of how many turn-arounds
have really become multibagger? Then why are we running after turn-around.
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Looking at all loss making companies, I found that they are not projected as loss making, they are projected as "LOSS IS REDUCING" and has been the biggest value
trap, wealth destroyer and no return on time invested.
Looking at all loss making companies, I found that they are not projected as loss making, they are projected as "LOSS IS REDUCING" and has been the biggest value
trap, wealth destroyer and no return on time invested.
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REALITY: Most of the retail investor wont be able to hold TataElsxi from 180 to 9000, ATUL from 240 to 10k, Ajanta from 35 to 1600, Vguard from 17 to 280,
Alembic from 40 to 1200, Sundram clyton from 250 to 3000 and many more such examples.
REALITY: Most of the retail investor wont be able to hold TataElsxi from 180 to 9000, ATUL from 240 to 10k, Ajanta from 35 to 1600, Vguard from 17 to 280,
Alembic from 40 to 1200, Sundram clyton from 250 to 3000 and many more such examples.
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This is because as these stocks goes up and multiply there is noise of oversold zone, valuation, targets, and one qtr result underperform make retail investor
surrender their shares to the one who knows real value.
This is because as these stocks goes up and multiply there is noise of oversold zone, valuation, targets, and one qtr result underperform make retail investor
surrender their shares to the one who knows real value.
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What next?
PART 2 of this thread will contain a strategy through which we can avoid market noise and keep good multibaggers in our portfolio and also resolve the problem of delisted shares in market. There will be a PART 3 also for this thread.
What next?
PART 2 of this thread will contain a strategy through which we can avoid market noise and keep good multibaggers in our portfolio and also resolve the problem of delisted shares in market. There will be a PART 3 also for this thread.
End. Re-Tweet. Like. Share😇
If you have reached here and interested in this then your Re-Tweet will motivate me to come up with next parts as soon as possible and there are lot of things to disclose.
If you have reached here and interested in this then your Re-Tweet will motivate me to come up with next parts as soon as possible and there are lot of things to disclose.
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