#IndianBanks#IBC#BankruptcyCode: How Successful has IBC Resolution Process been with Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) ?
While the INITIAL success of IBC was encouraging, incrementally the YIELD from the IBC has been falling ?
The cumulative admitted claims of financial creditors till end March 2022 was ₹6,84,901cr. Till end Mar-22 ,since the launch of IBC, the cumulative recovery for lenders where resolution took place dropped to 32.9% against 35.9 per cent upto Sept-21
In absolute terms, the realisation for financial creditors till end March 2022 stood at ₹2,25,294cr — much higher than liquidation value of ₹1,31,448cr
As against the admitted claims of financial creditors of ₹12,610cr for Jan-Mar 22, the amount realisable by such creditors stood at ₹ 1,288cr — which is about 10.21% vs cumulative since inception of IBC
.... Whats even more worrying ??
The worrying part is that for the first time ever, the quarterly realisation of ₹1,288cr in Jan-Mar was lower than the liquidation value of ₹1,316cr.
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Common #Narrative that #INR has done well when compared to the #JPY, #GBP and #EURO. It’s a Entirely FLAWED Argument and many Global Macro guys must be laughing at our TV Experts.
Let’s look at JPY. This country runs a large current account/trade surplus. Yet it’s currency depreciates ? Why. COZ the central banks wants INFLATION. And it doing YCC at 0.25%. It will continue to do YCC (Print JPY) until inflation hits a respectable amount. But Japan is
Growing old. And Old Economies don’t witness inflation. Coz Old people don’t consumer new cars, consumer durables or new houses… so commodity demand falls and inflation falls. So to drive inflation, they print money. So the JPY depreciates vs it’s natural tendency to Appreciate
Trigger: CCI Investigations (This time ITS DIFFERENT)
... A thread.. You will Enjoy it... its almost "fictional"
1/ For Years starting 2012, there have been accusations that the Indian Cement Industry worked as a "Cartel" given how resilient Cement Industry Margins were despite sharply falling UTILIZATION levels - The NARRATIVE that supported lofty Valuations given resilient Cashflows
2/ In 2016, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a $800mn fine on 10 companies for fixing prices, including the Holcim units and UltraTech, but the decision has been challenged since then at the Supreme Court (SC).
With reaching 7000+ followers, it’s a good time to highlight stuff
(1) if your a whatapp university grad & /or believe in MoShah, request you to Unfollow me (2) I have a very strong moral conscience (3) I believe in verifiable Facts (4) I believe in the OVARIAN LOTTERY
(5) if you are engaging in a debate, pls focus on the argument and Not the person. Here is a good way to categorise your arguments provided by @paulg . FOCUS at the TOP of the PYRAMID (6)
(6) I believe that if you Avoid Paying your taxes, your NOT a patriot and your views don’t matter (pls differentiate b/w Avoiding Tax (Bad thing) and not being in the Taxable Bracket (not one’s fault)) (7) I tend to have sympathy & empathy for less fortunate & oppressed
#ICICIBank: Interesting titbits from ICICI Q1FY23 ppt. Results were a few weeks ago.
1/ SIGNS OF RURAL STRESS ?? Rural loans grew JUST by 8.4% yy (does not even take care of Input inflation) for a Big bank growing fastest... vs Overall Domestic Loans grew 22% YY...
2/ RBI Rate hike of 40bps on May 4th shld have seen some impact on NIMs +vely in June Qtr given high share of External Benchmark (Repo Rate linked) Loans. Nims just +1bps QoQ (Retail/SME +24-33%yy vs low yielding Corp +14%yy shld hav also added to NIMs). Takes me to my next pt.
3/ Total Deposits declined QoQ (Rs10.64trn => 10.5trn) in a period of high Loan growth... the fight for deposits is gonna SPIKE BIG (HDFC merger effect yet 2 impact)..
P.S. FY YTD System Deposit growth weakens to 8%yy vs Credit growth a stellar @ 13-14% YY (WC Loans)
I am going to make a OUTRAGEOUS prediction... CRUDE OIL is gonna Rally like CRAZY starting October... and my Suspicion is that @IEA Weekly Inventory Data does NOT appear to add up to the Monthly Data which is released with a 8-10 week lag. is JULY Gasoline Demand < July 2020?
2/ I will make a THREAD on this, but let me start with an interesting tit-bit.... Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs: "Today, commodity markets appear to hold irrational expectations, as prices and inventories fall together, demand beats expectations and supply disappoints."
3/ => basically there is a BIG divergence b/w PAPER Market and PHYSICAL market across commodities. PHYSICAL markets are tight and inventories are falling. Specific to Crude, I dont trust the weekly IEA Data
Interesting Charts on IMPLIED VOLS & the Market Fundamentals...
French electricity prices you ask yourself if a chart can "fall backwards" from becoming too steep? Nobody has a clue about where this is going. Eurostoxx 50 volatility index, V2X is relatively cheap in tht context
Reversal strategists are pointing out the VIX vs SPX gap, but these people do not trade volatility. Volatility is mean reverting by "nature", so don't buy into the "last time VIX was here..." arguments. Always use cheap(er) volatility in your overall strategy.
Vol "indexes" of Apple, AMZN and Google all hitting new recent lows...