Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Aug 21 11 tweets 7 min read
1) As Most Quebecers prepare to return to work and school in 2 weeks' time, it’s worth revisiting the #COVID10 #pandemic in the province. In this thread, I will compare this point in time with the same periods in the last two years. Unfortunately, the comparison is not favorable.
2) This is not to suggest that Quebec will be crashing into an apocalyptic 8th wave this fall, but simply to underscore that the #pandemic is still with us, still churning out new virus variants, still hospitalizing people and still killing Quebecers amid stalled vaccination.
3) On Aug. 19, Quebec declared 999 new #COVID cases; a total of 1,997 hospitalizations (down by 14 from the day before); a dozen new fatalities, raising the death toll to 16,207. ICU stays were up by two, increasing the tally to 47.
4) By comparison, on the same date last year, Quebec reported 436 new #COVID infections; 91 hospitalizations (up by three from the previous day); and zero new fatalities (with a death toll at the time of 11,277). ICU stays were down by one to 27.
5) And in the #pandemic’s first year, on Aug. 19, 2020, the province recorded just 64 new infections; 146 hospitalizations (up by one from the previous day); and zero new deaths (with a toll of 5,729 at the time). ICU stays dipped by one to 26.
6) This comparison reveals that in this third week of August, the #pandemic’s impact has been more severe than for comparable periods in each of the last two years. This can be blamed, in part, on the proliferation of new variants and low booster uptake. See the chart below.
7) Quebec is not alone in struggling to overcome the #pandemic. Dr. @mvankerkhove, the #COVID19 technical lead at the World Health Organization, produced an entire Twitter thread on this subject on Saturday, warning against global complacency.
8) Nowadays, a staggering average of 15,000 “mothers, daughters, fathers, sons, brothers, sisters, friends…people we love” are dying from #COVID each week, Van Kerkhove wrote. “I know we are tired, but when did this become acceptable?”
9) Back in Quebec, few #pandemic protections remain in place. Only 19% of the population above the age of five has received a second #COVID booster shot. Is Quebec not setting itself up for an 8th wave this fall as BA.5 and other variants continue to circulate? (See below).
10) This #pandemic has walloped health-care systems across Canada, with overcrowded emergency rooms no longer uniquely a Quebec problem. For the sake of our health-care systems, for the sake of the lives of the elderly (see the chart below), Quebecers must resist complacency.
11) In eight days, Quebec will start offering a 5th #COVID vaccine dose to all adults. I know I will get mine. And in light of the latest #pandemic stats, perhaps Quebec authorities should consider reinstating some public health precautions. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 14
1) In a horrible déjà vu, China is again closing schools and locking down cities two years after first confronting the #pandemic. In this thread, I will focus on the latest resurgences worldwide and what this means as North America continues phasing out public health precautions.
2) For several weeks now, I’ve been writing about how Denmark’s battle with the more contagious #Omicron variant and BA.2 sub-variant should serve as a warning to Québec, the rest of Canada and the United States. In the United Kingdom, BA.2 infections are also now rising.
3) What’s more, BA.2 is proliferating in Finland (up by 43% in just four days), the Netherlands (up 29%), Italy (up 17%), Portugal (up 16%), Germany (up by 16%), France (up by 11%) and Spain (up by 7%). In retrospect, these countries lifted public health protections prematurely.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
1) Although the trend has received zero mention by the mainstream British media, epidemiologists and other experts in England are now warning about an uptick in #COVID hospitalizations in the United Kingdom since last week. In this thread, I will assess what this could mean.
2) If the increase in hospitalizations continues in the U.K., it would naturally serve as a warning to other jurisdictions — including Québec, the rest of Canada and the United States — that have been lifting public health precautions amid stalled booster vaccination campaigns.
3) Professor Christina Pagel, head of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, produced a Twitter thread Tuesday suggesting that the proliferation of the BA.2 sub-variant, waning booster immunity and a reduction in masks may be behind this increase.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 7
1) Since Vladimir Putin’s army invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, no other nation has accepted as many Ukranian refugees than Poland. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this mass displacement of a brave people on the #pandemic.
2) Poland’s Health Minister, Adam Niedzielski (@a_niedzielski) tweeted on the day the Russian invasion started that “every citizen of Ukraine who comes to Poland fearing for his health and life can count on access to medical care” – a truly noble statement, if there ever was one.
3) Since then, more than 756,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in Poland. But news reports also surfaced of some Polish nationalists attacking and abusing refugee students of African, south Asian and Middle Eastern origin who attempted to cross the Polish border from Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 6
1) In the past few days, numerous publications around the world have all but pronounced that the #COVID19 pandemic is over. In this thread, I will stress-test whether such optimism may be justified as we enter the third year of this horrific health crisis.
2) In a March 4 article about the state of the #pandemic in the Big Apple, the highly influential New York Times proclaimed that “this week, more than at any other point during the past two years, who we are finally began to feel more like who we were.”
3) In a March 2 Vox article, the authors interviewed 8 experts in "public health, virology, infectious disease ecology, medical anthropology, and medical history" who concluded “in the U.S. and much of Europe, the most destructive waves of COVID-19 are in the rearview mirror.”
Read 14 tweets
Mar 5
1) As Québec moves up its plans to lift public health precautions, it’s worth taking a step back to compare the state of the #pandemic in the province now with what occurred a year ago, and to ask whether the government’s latest actions might be premature. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Québec announced this week it’s moving up the date for the removal of the vaccine passport by two days, to March 12. And the mask mandate is now expected to be lifted by mid-April. But is such haste the prudent course of action during the worst respiratory pandemic since 1918?
3) A year ago, Québec’s hospitals were filled with 626 #COVID patients. In contrast, 1,313 patients were hospitalized yesterday, just below the peak of the 2nd wave last January. What’s more, the waiting list for surgeries has increased by at least 8,000 since January of 2021.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 4
1) If there’s one country that has proved that vaccines work in the #pandemic, then it must be Cuba. The island nation of 11.3 million has long championed vaccination as part of effective public health. In this thread, I will review Cuba’s successful vaccination strategy.
2) Cuba launched its National Immunization Program in 1962, understanding that doing so would reduce the burden of infectious diseases, especially among children, in a very cost-effective manner. It also invested massively in its own biotech sector.
3) And so when the #COVID19 pandemic erupted in 2020, Cuba didn’t wait to be supplied with vaccines from richer countries. It would go on to quickly develop no fewer than five different COVID vaccines, including the highly effective Abdala, Soberana O2 and Soberana Plus shots.
Read 10 tweets

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