Faster economic growth does not make the economy stable and strong.
Whereas, only focussing on the quantity of growth does not imply the quality derived is equally beneficial for the masses
Nordic nations have much smaller economies with slower growth rates compared to India, etc
A prime example of this argument is the Chilean Economy before the military coup d'état of September, 11th of 1973.
The aggregate demand expanded rapidly, and the economy boomed for a year or so under Allende.
Later runaway rate of inflation took all the benefits away. #shocks
This QE Quantitative Easing we have seen since the GFC has now devastated the Western World.
Inflation rates are at an all-time high since the 1970s.
Reflationery Economics has not helped the West to understand that expectations affect monetary policy more than the central bank
The faster the pace of any economic variables, especially money supply or government spending, the more carefully economic agents need to fasten their seat belts and hope the airbag will come out if there is a road crash!
That is akin to driving a sports car.
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The LTCM Crisis taught #Quants one thing in common.
Never trust the risk pricing/hedging models blindly.
The Black Scholes option model assumptions and the Value at Risk Metric both failed miserably.
The liquidity assumptions of the #VaR Model provided a false sense of security.
The most worrying thing is that if #LTCM which was a hedge fund managed by two @NobelPrize winners in Economics could not get things right, then what should one expect from humble risk practitioners like myself!?
imagine the amount of risk that is concealed by Black Box Models.
Always backtest and stress test your #risk models.
Not just the mathematical components, but also the semantics, the #hermeneutics, the syntax that is used for coding the automata, and the symbols which are shown on the analytical dashboard.
It is a big #CON industry at work!
I am for education leading to human capital development, knowledge capital formation, talent management, and skill development, etc.
My views have adjusted slightly.
Most of the countries which have found themselves to be in trouble did include those with high literacy rates.
Look at the Former GDR, now defunct Yugoslavia, USSR, and Somalia.
Other Warsaw Pact Nations provided compulsory education.
Shah's Iran was well educated.
Those states &/or regimes don't exist anymore.
Srilanka which had recently defaulted has an above 90% literacy rate.
Turkey?
Education and investment in human capital are very important, provided the state uses its subjects as means to attain ends.
Unfortunately, only investing in tinpot academic ventures with large educational budgets dolling out overseas scholarships is unproductive & rubbish.
The #Wirecard Scandal once again highlighted the incompetence of external #auditing firms.
That is why firms must invest in setting up proactive Corporate Governance, Risk Management and Compliance desks.
These are very important silos in a company, which must work together.
The best and most sought-after professionals should be working in these areas, especially after the #ENRON and Arthur Anderson Fiasco led to the naming and shaming of the audit and financial reporting professions.
Directors appointed to committees should also be well trained to understand the nature of top financial and operational risks, which can cause potential material hazards and affect the bottom line.
Will data science overcome quantitative finance in terms of employment and salary? @CQFInstitute@datafitter
Well, I think you are asking a relevant question.
It can be explained using a Social Darwinian Perspective.
First, the Simple answer =>
YES, => Quantitative Finance, will get absorbed into Data Sciences and Machine Learning Areas as a sub-field.
WHY?
Because many subjects develop independently, they get assimilated into the much larger disciplines or subjects which offer more attractive career remuneration, research opportunities, social status, social mobility and scholarly following and readership.
This is not an exhaustive list.
I am just sipping coffee and writing this tweet.
There are many other institutions which might be damn good. @Harvard Business School is the best for Business econs / #DBA.
Other Ivy League universities not aforementioned have superb PhD programs.
@Columbia offers MSc Financial Maths and MBA.
Financial Maths Degree was a conjoint project undertaken by Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Departments (plz check the website now)
Great if you want to do a Quantitative Finance PhD sharing expertise of different depts
MSMEs do not have the technical acumen or the human resource expertise to produce documents which are required by financing institutions.
The most difficulty comes to producing and presenting cash flow statements.
Some potential borrowers cannot compute cash projections
Especially Micro and Small Firms, which are managed informally by households, usually do not maintain proper book-keeping and accounting systems.
Banks have to use their own historical loss databases to compute credit metrics such as PD, LGD, EAD,etc.
And most of them have errors
Demographic and Geographic indicators can play a role in assessing and evaluating credit risk management, especially during the loan examination phase.
Sectoral Loan Risk Data can be aggregated to compute Risk Measures. #Saunders FI-Risk management has a chapter dedicated to it