Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Aug 24 3 tweets 3 min read
House special election results since start of June:

#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
------(Dobbs)-------
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.

Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

NJ: 58%
VA: 74%

This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict

May 11
On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster (R) is on track to lose the #NEGOV GOP primary badly.
Herbster doing a little better with more Trump-aligned EDay votes reporting, but still not on track to win. #NEGOV
Never underestimate the Trumpiness of the EDay vote. Still a long way to go in #NEGOV.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:

- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… Image
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"

- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:

- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6
Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:

- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.
If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.

We'll see what courts say this time.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(