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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
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No update to our nonpartisan generic ballot poll tracker this morning for @SplitTicket_, mainly because we have seen no new generic ballot polls (!). But I thought I'd take this thread to go through where our aggregator was at specific days, compared to 538 and RCP.
For the sake of transparency, I'll put up that we have data for our aggregate from June 1 onwards. The data is in the table, on our site. However, we only display the GCB from September 1 onwards in our graphic, which is around when the LV screens begin to hit polls. OK, now...
CA Primary (6/07):
@SplitTicket_: R+2.5
@FiveThirtyEight: R+2.2
@RealClearNews: R+3.4
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Very disturbing to see that Gov. Kelly and many political strategists have somehow taken the opposite lessons from the #KansasReferendum on #abortionrights. Voters showed up just weeks ago, in record numbers, to SUPPORT abortion rights. This issue CANNOT be sidestepped! 1/4
Since the #DobbsVJackson decision, Democrats have been punishing the GOP for their anti-choice extremism, regularly outperforming Biden’s 2020 margins in elections across the country, from #NE01 to #MN01 to #NY19. 2/4
Kansas is the ultimate proof-point that when abortion is on the ballot, young people, women, and people of color show up to protect it. 3/4 Image
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Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.

#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.

Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Read 4 tweets
House special election results since start of June:

#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.

Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

NJ: 58%
VA: 74%

This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.
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So, @HWLavelleMaps and I have some thoughts on the results from the Tuesday primaries and the special election in #MN01 for our @SplitTicket_ recap, including what they might mean for November and the signals to read.…
It is basically undeniable that the political climate at the moment is significantly better for Democrats than it was in November of 2021, going by special election results, polling, fundraising, and primary turnout (KS/WA/MN) — it is currently closer to a neutral environment
But that doesn’t mean it will hold. Dobbs has quite clearly had a significant effect on the electoral picture. But it is worth noting that each of the past 4 midterms saw the out-party gain ~2 points between now and November (h/t @baseballot). So…wait and see.
Read 5 tweets
If you're looking for another signal that there is a change in the environment, we have a second post-Dobbs special election in which Dems are set to outperform Biden's 2020 numbers. The first one was #NE01, where they outperformed by 6. In #MN01, it'll likely be by a couple.
Polling has shown a 2-3 point shift towards Democrats since the Dobbs decision, and that remains the single best indicator that there has been a change. But if you're looking for another sign because you're worried about nonresponse bias, then this is another confirmation.
For what it's worth, the difference between an R+4 and an R+1 year might be as many as 20 House seats and three Senate seats, depending on the scenario that pans out. Let's see how the rest of the cycle plays out and how the LV screens shift things after Labor Day.
Read 9 tweets
It’s primary night again! 4️⃣ states are heading to the polls:
• Connecticut
• Vermont
• Wisconsin
• Minnesota

Women will take a step towards a historic milestone. Plus, Minnesota could show us if a pro-choice backlash is really growing.

Here are the key storylines to watch:
Wisconsin Democrats are set to pick Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes to face Sen. Ron Johnson.

Johnson is slightly favored given the national environment. But polls show Barnes — a progressive who would be the state's first Black senator — with a small early lead.
Wisconsin Republicans will pick their nominee for governor — and the winner could impact 2024.

Trump endorsed businessman Tim Michels; Pence is backing former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. Both deny the 2020 election results. The winner will face Gov. Tony Evers in a tossup race.
Read 6 tweets
#mn01 candidate forum at FarmFest about to begin. No @SouthernMN4Jeff (Ettinger). He tested positive for COVID-19, according to forum organizers who read from a statement from him.

@BradFinstad and @jeremymunson on stage along with Richard Reinsdorf (LMN), James Rainwater (DFL). Image
Opening remarks from Finstad:
“I grew up as a crop farmer and a hog farmer. … I’ve been scooping manure from a young age and that’s unfortunately prepared me for politics.”
DFL #mn01 primary candidate James Rainwater (there's both a special election and a primary on Aug. 9 ) acknowledges his limitations at FarmFest.

“I know less about farming than anyone up here. But I’ve eaten more farm products than anyone up here.” Image
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"Only four big companies, by the way, control more than half the markets for beef, pork, and poultry."
@POTUS May 11, 2022…
"Without meaningful competition, our farmers and ranchers have to pay whatever the four big retailers... pay for their chickens, their hogs, and their cattle. These big companies can use their position as middlemen to overcharge grocery stores and, ultimately, families." @POTUS
The big pork monopoly, including Hormel Foods, faces antitrust class actions in multiple federal courts; co-defendants Smithfield and JBS settled for over $100 million in damages; but they still think they own the U.S. House seat in #MN01. We will show them otherwise.
Read 6 tweets
"Biden has blamed large meatpackers for the run-up in meat prices."
@POTUS is exactly right. Hormel Foods and other meat packers have been sued for price fixing in federal court in Minneapolis, Chicago and elsewhere. DOJ must act NOW!… via @whitehouse
"Q Quick question on a totally unrelated topic. Biden has blamed large meatpackers for the run-up in meat prices.
MS. PSAKI: Yeah."
#MN01 supports @POTUS not the price fixers. We will flip this seat Blue!
"MS. PSAKI:...the President’s concern is... that the meat industry— the conglomerates are so... dominant that they are elbowing out, of course, smaller producers and that they have this capacity and ability to jack up prices and pass those on to consumers when they should not."
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This 2018 op-ed by @YaleLawSch Prof. Akhil Amar was 1) a con job by @FedSoc, 2) the incredibly naive view of an excessively theoretical liberal, or 3) a sellout to get another Yalie on SCOTUS.
All I know is that women voters in #MN01 are really pissed.…
It's @YaleLawSch, so let's boil this theoretically neutral judicial philosophy down to a Latin phrase:
Ego similis cervisiam
@YaleLawSch @FedSoc Anyone who thinks these one percenters will do anything for the ninety-nine percent is a real sucker. Conning hard working people every two years in November is the name of their game. They spend the rest of their time taking in the money.…
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Is this a joke? I'll be flipping the U.S. House seat in #MN01 from red to blue anyway, but @mngop should at least try to find a decent candidate. This one's best friend is still in the Hennepin County lockup .....
This big time @mngop donor can't make bail.
As big @mngop political operatives worry about posting bail for big donors, our campaign for #MN01 is catching up with small dollar donations. But we need your help.
Click here and let's flip this House seat Blue!
Read 4 tweets
My wife, a tenured professor and a #MeToo victim, has sued @UMN_Music over harassment, discrimination and retaliation. In Congress I will make sure that universities and other employers are held accountable and that all #MeToo victims have legal remedies.
Allegations supported by evidence include a former @UMN_Music director looking under a professor's skirt and talking with male colleagues about what he saw and a professor every year asking graduate students in oral exams which scholars they want to "shag, marry or kill." Gross.
The federal judge said that this #MeToo case belongs in state court. Federal remedies for harassment victims aren't working. That will change when I get to Congress to represent #MN01. There needs to be a viable federal remedy for all #MeToo victims.…
Read 6 tweets
This same University "Equal Opportunity and Affirmative Action" office protected a professor and dean who for years asked female graduate students in oral exams which famous scholars they wanted to "shag, marry or kill." Then came another lawsuit. A mess.
Congress needs to pass legislation cracking down on discrimination by university administrators, professors and staff against women, minorities and the disabled. Compliance offices have been excusing discriminatory abuse of discretion for far too long.
We must fix this. #MN01.
Not to mention a department head who looked up a tenured professor's skirt, told other men in the office what he saw and then wrote a long and nasty letter for her promotion file. Off to court she went.....
Read 4 tweets
Don't blame @POTUS for high food prices. Do something.
Price fixing corporations, including the pork monopoly, poured millions into GOP campaigns. Now they're trying to defeat me in a primary and general election. I need your help to flip #MN01 to blue!
The pork monopoly thinks they own this House district #MN01 and the rest of Congress. Here's a sample of how one company spent $$$$ to own the GOP and then to restrain competition from Democrats.
We're fighting back to flip this seat to blue!…
Want to prevent the pork monopoly from cleaning out your wallet at the grocery store?
1) Become a vegetarian;
2) Keep Kosher; and/or
Read 4 tweets
In my race for Congress in #MN01 supporting @POTUS against price fixing by big meatpacking monopolies will be a big issue. The pork industry is pouring enormous amounts of money into Minnesota politics to stop us while the GOP blames Biden for high prices.…
"Smithfield Foods (owned by China's WH Group) JBS, Tyson and Hormel account for 67% of U.S. pork production."
What percent of the U.S. House of Representatives do they control with their campaign cash?
I'll be fighting to make sure they don't own #MN01.
The GOP blames "inflation" on @POTUS. If this were just inflation, the hog farmer would get paid more when the price of pork goes up in the grocery store. That's not happening. Where does all the money go? Some of it is running against me in #MN01.…
Read 7 tweets
It's not just consumers who get price gouged. Family famers are crushed by the monopoly power of big food companies that donate millions to politicians. Hormel's former CEO is now running against me for Congress in #MN01. Pay to play.… via @HighPlainsJrnl
Voters in @MN01 don't want to choose between insurrectionists and meat company monopolists. Price fixers have been living high off the hog for too long. Somebody must stand up for consumers and farmers. That's why I'm in this race, but I need your help.…
After four years of Trump's DOJ not enforcing antitrust laws against oil and food companies, the GOP blames @POTUS for inflation. An ExxonMobil CEO close to Putin was Secretary of State. Now the former Hormel Foods CEO is running for Congress. What a rip off for the rest of us.
Read 5 tweets
The price of pork at the grocery store is sky high.
But hog farmers in Minnesota are getting less.
So, where's all the money going?
Don't we have antitrust laws?
Wake up #MN01. It's time for a blue wave in rural America!

Hog prices keep sliding…
The sharply rising price of pork in grocery stores minus the stable or declining price paid to hog farmers and declining real wages for labor equals PROFIT for big meat processing corporations. They reinvest a portion of that profit to buy seats in Congress. What a #SpamScam!
"Hog prices...are half of the $134.41/cwt. June peak and are close to dropping below the year-ago level for the first time this year."
Don't talk about "inflation" to the Minnesota farmer. They're not getting the money. Big business is.
It's time for a Blue Wave in rural America!
Read 4 tweets
My opponent in #MN01 was the CEO of Hormel during this price fixing conspiracy alleged in multiple federal suits. You contributed to his campaign every time you bought a sandwich.

Restaurants Sue Hormel, Others For Alleged Pork Price-Fixing Scheme…
Sick of sky high food prices?
In Congress I'll hold DOJ's feet to the fire and insist they enforce the Sherman Act, prosecuting anti-trust violations and putting price fixing executives in the slammer.
Help us flip #MN01 blue here:…
Within two years former Hormel Foods CEO Jeff Ettinger gave $5,000 to the Republican Senatorial Committee and $50,000 to the Minnesota Victory PAC of @Tim_Walz. Putting bets on red and blue is a favorite strategy in pay to play. The rest of us just pay at the checkout lane.
Read 5 tweets
2nd term Rep Jim Hagedorn (R-MN) has died at 59, losing his battle w/kidney cancer."It is with a broken heart,shattered spirit & overwhelming sadness I share my husband Congressman Jim Hagedorn passed away peacefully last night."-his wife Jennifer Carnahan…
Minnesota Democratic Governor Tim Walz on the death of MN GOP Congressman Jim Hagedorn.
Walz (D) defeated Hagedorn (R) twice in close elections in 2014 and 2016 for the southern #MN01 House seat. Hagedorn ran again in 2018 and won, flipping the open seat from D to R vacated by Walz, who ran & won election as MN Gov. Hagedorn won reelection to 2nd House term in 2020.
Read 5 tweets
Here’s what I’ll be watching once results come in tonight: I’ve classified every Minnesota precinct into buckets based on its 2016 vote, and then will see what vote margins it puts up in 2020.

In 2018, as you can see, DFL strongholds held steady while GOP strongholds collapsed. Image
This can be helpful at the #mnleg level, too. Here’s an example from House District 44A, a DFL pickup in 2018. In 2016, most of the district’s precincts voted heavily for @Rep_SAnderson. Two years later, she lost support in all types of precincts, especially her '16 strongholds. Image
@Rep_SAnderson Or in #mn02, where @AngieCraigMN improved against @LewisForMN basically across the board from 2016 to 2018: Image
Read 5 tweets
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis.…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
Read 8 tweets
We do say that @RepHagedorn has been Minnesota's least productive congressman.

Math agrees with us:… #mn01
While other members of Minnesota's congressional delegation wasted little time drafting and introducing bills, it took 264 days for @RepHagedorn to put forth his very first bill, longer than the combined days of all seven other members. #mn01 Image
With Hagedorn's constituents struggling with the rising cost of health care, a devastating trade war and crumbling infrastructure, @RepHagedorn has appears to have been sitting back and twiddling his thumbs in D.C., only introducing 3 bills since he's been in office. #mn01 Image
Read 4 tweets

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