Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.
#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/08/24/tem…
#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D
split-ticket.org/2022/08/24/tem…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.
Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
there’s, uh, a very clear chance for Rs to win the senate even now, just to be clear — I think some are forgetting this. all I’m saying is that given how it looked pre-Dobbs, the fact that we’re in a place where Dems have a lane at possibly expanding their majority is crazy.
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