Thread by @nap_trader

Fakeouts - #Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin analysis 8/29

So, what do we have? We have #short #squeezes on thin air. I had suspicion of #bear #traps, and well.....yeah. Can't exactly say I'm surprised.

At this time, weekly charts are by and large unchanged. tradingview.com/x/J8cJYTLY/ - bearish, see ya later. So far. Obviously this #fakeout back and forth stuff when we're at a pivot leaves me at a little bit of indecision.

Daily charts also say LOL, because we're literally sitting on top of a horizontal support going way back, and yet...we already went under it once and for sure did not strongly bounce off it. Usually when this occurs, market goes down. tradingview.com/x/2q3KlQ0m/

4H charts which usually lead the day, say we could go up further or shortly retest after the day closes in about 2 hours, or thereabouts. tradingview.com/x/XlOymDQu/

Not one part of any of this is bullish, it's just more like "do we go further down now, or do we bounce/fakeout/etc first"? At least at a basic level, momentum and literally everything point to down.

What else do we have? well funding data shows mixed everything - basically longs took profit but OI kept creeping up (or let's even say a short squeeze), none of which makes sense. binance.com/en/futures/fun…

If we turn on other indicators, we point towards mean reversion instead of trend, basically saying we're bearish, but now into a transition. tradingview.com/x/pSypeT6z/ . I don't know what to say, people will buy bitcoin forever no matter what by now.

Doesn't mean it won't go further down, as even @saylor is in some sort of quasi self-destructive state where he has blown up his entire company on Bitcoin and stepped down as CEO, to basically further his gambit on Bitcoin, despite many people's concerns.

Onchain usually implies we're (duh) bearish but near a bottom, pending some bounces and so on. imgur.com/a/hbfsVpF , very similar to 2014. The catch to all of this though, is that the SPY looks a hell of a lot like 2008.

And crypto is explicitly and deeply correlated with the market at large, and we have a ton of gaps below in the normal stock market. We're now very close to those gaps, and there are tons, even short term. tradingview.com/x/NijsMQ0c/

So any move today is not bullish, but the question is when it's the right time to short. The answer is, we don't have a clear answer, so this probably isn't the time for *new* shorts but if you're still in one from 23k+ I wouldn't be losing any sleep, for certain.

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