It's not quite the same this time, but I'm not sure if people have taken heed.
#market #analysis 11/4 (Friday) So.....we just had a rate hike. A lot of earnings calls. A lot of stocks gapped down hard recently ( $META, $TWLO), and a few gapped up hard on nonsense ($ETSY). tradingview.com/x/bBW5ZyyK/ .

Gap down in progress
Cryptocurrency Analysis 9/16

I'm hours away from posting what is likely to occur shortly, where either BTC gaps down or BTC closes the gap. Probably by the time I post this. tradingview.com/x/EInvsVqj/ Unsurprisingly, Eth in in the same boat, about $10-15 above the gap pricing right now. But that's not really what matters here, overall. It's the same bear market, where people want to believe that bounces happen.

#Economics, what do we have going on? History lessons.
#Market #Analysis 9/25
A colleague of mine sent this today:
mishtalk.com/economics/stro… . It even cites what I planned to cite below (Soros vs UK 1992), that's how hilarious this is. Clearly we're all on the same page. It was hot on my mind, as JPY said they were going to sell $USD to buy $JPY.

Good data, Bad data
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/ I still am guessing a 1% #rate #hike (100bps) but it could be 0.75% again, who knows. Probably that or larger because I bet the fed will want more breathing room. At some point I'll write on inflation and how people get it wrong, but now's not the time.

1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/ 2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC

Friday Fudgery
#Cryptocurrency Market / #Bitcoin Market analysis 9/16
I'm using the words lightly there, but I hope it's quite clear. As it's a quadruple witching friday, I watched trades basically evaporate. It was kind of a mess. $SPY went up and down all day, thus $BTC as well. tradingview.com/x/Jt1R0JzH/ Notice distinctly how the $BTC responses are slower, because that's what I want to call attention to.

Where do we go? Down, of course.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/15 So, our big bearish channel trend got confirmed. tradingview.com/x/mLp5u6eS/ Nothing has changed outside of that, really.

We are real-time witnessing #Russian collapse
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/12 So, I warned in my quarterly Macro - that I see Russia collapse coming. And I mean, the entire country. This means: even the Russians don't want to serve anymore after the rout.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1569384417142906880

Technically Bullish, but for how long? 🤷
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 9/11
So, I guess we're bullish for now. Let me add emphasis again: *FOR NOW*. 4H crossups are significant headwind for at least even short term bullishness. Follow the market. Macro things: #Ukraine has crushed the F out of #Russia and may have turned the war. So all those macro scenarios are going to come into play very soon, be it bullish or bearish - someone is going to make a move.

https://twitter.com/Pillandia/status/1525346312811683841

Now comes the real market moves, catalysts are set . How to safely navigate what's to come! ⚠ 
Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10 -
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening. We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It's time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: $CL $SPX $BTC #Ruble $RUBUSD

ES Short Squeeze - Stock market lookin good, Crypto....eh.
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin market analysis 9/9
So, there was a short squeeze. A really, really big one. A lot of weird crap happened, but a lot of people keep looking in the wrong place. Why? Because it's the $SPY that gapped up on it's futures, not some magic $BTC move as BTC follows the SPY these days. tradingview.com/x/THGgHIdC/

What is this noise?
#Bitcoin/#cryptocurrency market analysis 9/8
I took a day off yesterday, was too tired with life going on. #life. Anyway, let's look at the market. First, stock market is gapping up into Friday, which usually implies one thing - an explosive Friday to come, depending on how morning goes. $SPY is about 403 overnight via ES futures, but could naturally rebound by morning or go further. Time will tell. tradingview.com/x/Uv8LtlWJ/

We're bleeding, but not blood on the streets.
#cryptocurrency market/#bitcoin Market Analysis 9/6 . Today, is well, bearish. I think some people did indeed pick up on the $1000 drop for Bitcoin that happened across about 10 minutes. Of course, those do tend to shock people, as they are not bullish. Meanwhile, some call groups are hilariously moving the goalposts lower. "It's going to stop at 19k, no 18.8k, no 18.6k!" the word for that is #rekt.

#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/5
I just got back from a nice vacation (Yay), so I'll keep this one short and sweet. A number of people think Oil is going to be the trigger for Bitcoin moving, and I will say it's quite silly. Let's sum up what has happened in brief links:

https://twitter.com/finanzru/status/1566361762710126593

Russia: "Why can't we pull out our $100b in China?" But hey you know, #BRICS ever so strong except when reality comes into play. Here's google translate:

Risk Reminders
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin #Analysis 9/1
First, vacation after today, see ya Monday. Let's start this with some reminders of the existing risk to miners is getting worse. Not many people mention this article. amycastor.com/2022/08/04/bit… What this means is $MARA and $RIOT among others are at huge risk of default from leveraging their ASICS to buy more bitcoin (yep, you read that right - double leveraged). While they own for the leverage. Anyway, further the year drags on bearish?

A day of indecision - #Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 8/31.

Everything first looks like consolidation. That's the TLDR of today, overall. Things look very, very mixed. We are however, looking at Contango - and that implies bearishness. IE: spot is below futures. Anyway though, let's get to looking at the market, shall we? Real ugly 1d pin bar that hints at lower, explicitly. tradingview.com/x/FB6FnlYx/

This is the problem - everything ties together, in some ugly ways.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin #Market #Analysis 8/30 First, let's do some TA. tradingview.com/x/lmjBtqFy/ - we have a macro inverted head and shoulders on the quarterly DXY. So....that's possibly a year, two years? More? Not going to be bullish for crypto, for sure.

Fakeouts - #Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin analysis 8/29

So, what do we have? We have #short #squeezes on thin air. I had suspicion of #bear #traps, and well.....yeah. Can't exactly say I'm surprised. At this time, weekly charts are by and large unchanged. tradingview.com/x/J8cJYTLY/ - bearish, see ya later. So far. Obviously this #fakeout back and forth stuff when we're at a pivot leaves me at a little bit of indecision.

Sunday 8/28 analysis. An obvious setup for Monday is coming. BTC is hovering at/around the $20k mark, which means consolidation for the time being. It's clear that BTC is ready to follow the SPY for the new week. For those that have been following what I'm doing, it's clear that doesn't mean bullish. tradingview.com/x/UXUy5E0Q/ BTC can't even make it over tiny MA's at this time, and top of MA resistance on short term is $21.6k to continue downtrend.

1/ Macro bearish — it’s worse than I expected. - Cryptocurrency Market/Bitcoin analysis 8/27.
Turns out, things are more bleak than I expected. I just needed to zoom out enough to see it. One of the two I see is the end of a 5 year, macro bull trend in Bitcoin. 2/ Yep, everyone says crypto moves fast, well….guess what. Surprise! Macro trend is waiting for ya. Oh, and MT GOX release is tomorrow. see that volume trend? tradingview.com/x/e4SCMGkG/ This basically implies that we have yet to correct.