I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
Range Tool Setup 2/2
Once you've set up your fibs per the above, they should look something like this:
'0' Anchor Point down the bottom
'1' Anchor Point up top
0.5, Mid Range Level in the centre
Determining a Range
In my opinion, we can set up a range based on a couple of factors:
- Timeframe Structure
- Market Structure
- Combination of both
Let's take a look at a couple of examples
Timeframe Based Ranges 1/4
Timeframe Based Ranges are the simplest in my opinion as they are literally pulled from the high to the low of a previous daily, weekly, or monthly candle
Timeframe Based Ranges 2/4
When we look at one example below, but just note two things:
- You can also use this method on the daily & lower timeframes
- You'll also see to the left of this PA that you could also form an overall Market Structure Based Range too
Timeframe Based Ranges 3/4
In this 2H case, we've got a range that has been determined by a previous week.
Note that in order to use this method, we need to extrapolate this range shown out to the next trading week
You can see that blue box represents the previous weeks range
Timeframe Based Ranges 4/4
You can see here that the range we extrapolated can be a great for determining a trading plan
- Price respected the previous weeks range low
- Price then finds acceptance above the previous weeks mid range
- Price then ran the previous week range high
Market Structure Based Ranges 1/3
With a Market Structure (MS) Based range, you need a logical approach.
I find that a swing low following a steep move down, and a swing high after said swing low work quite well as the definition of a range (see chart on the right for this)
Market Structure Based Ranges 2/3
As price action plays out:
- You can see that range low is violated (liquidity run), - Then running up to mid range for a rejection
- Followed then by a further range low deviation for another run on sellside liquidity (stops ran)
Market Structure Based Ranges 3/3
As is evident in the example, Market Structure Based ranges can hold their place for a significant amount of time
As price is fractal in nature, you'll be able to replicate this set up on any timeframe, noting how respected ranges like this are
Targets - Market Structure 1/2
When we describe market structure based targets, we're aiming for swing highs, swing lows, or equal highs or lows (shown here)
When price trades away from these areas, we can expect that participants have most likely placed stops at these points
Targets - Market Structure 2/2
As price is driven to and from liquidity pools, this is why we'll see the lows or highs taken out, with price then running in the opposite direction to opposing areas of liquidity as shown in the chart above, and also below
Targets - FVG's 1/2
FVG's are a straight forward concept where price is not always seeking liquidity, but also seeking to balance itself out as well
This balance is brought about after price quickly moves away from an area, which then looks to 'fill' these areas again
Targets - FVG's 2/2
Note that FVG's work both ways, both bullish or bearish
As price generally 'fills' these voids back, we can then utilise FVG's to our advantage in the form of a target for liquidity or price to be drawn to when determining a trading plan or idea
So that's it, you've now got a better understanding of ranges & also some targets to work to.
Go and check out Module 4 - Ranges & Targets in full below (it's free!)
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above
If you're trading using someone's method without building the stats for yourself, then you've got a 0% win rate until proven
Don't throw your dough away pissing in the wind.
Take the time & develop the understanding - some background below:
It can be boring backtesting.
But that's literally what trading should be; BORING, almost like a habit.
Cue, Craving, Response, Reward
Cue: Your brain initiates a behaviour to predict a reward
In this case, we're looking to establish an understanding of the probability of how our trading method works, in order to hold a psychological edge to protect us from worrying in future about our trades