Thread by @lxeagle17

One development that's become clear from the last few weeks, and why I moved #AZSen to Lean D @SplitTicket_:

Very few people think this race is that close right now. But Thiel has no intention of spending more, and McConnell and co. need the $ for Ohio.

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

@SplitTicket_ Of course, people could be wrong (and why it's Lean D, not safe). You may remember 2020, when this was the consensus and then every poll overshot Kelly's margin. But folks can only make decisions on resource allocation based on data they have, and Kelly is up by a fair amount.

@SplitTicket_ If you're Mitch McConnell and you see internals from *your own side* saying Tim Ryan is up by 4, do you (a) hold your fire in Ohio and continue spending in AZ to reverse a Kelly +8 lead? Or do you punt and then try to save Ohio?

@SplitTicket_ There's no right or wrong answer here, but most people do not play by the calculus of "only play for the tipping points" because the size of majorities matters for future chambers too -- this is not a presidential race, where winning a state one year doesn't directly impact 2024.

@SplitTicket_ Without more money, Masters has almost no shot. And so I think he gets some more $ from McConnell and *maybe* Thiel after a lot of pressure, and that keeps him in it till election day, where we probably enter with Kelly as a favorite, but where a Masters victory is very plausible

@SplitTicket_ *BUT* the size of the buy probably won't be nearly as high as it would have been otherwise, and more importantly, a lot of time has been lost for Masters in this fiasco. Kelly's now defined him already -- IMO he is favored and Masters now has to play catch-up. But he could do it.