Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Aug 31 10 tweets 5 min read
2) In less than a year, the number of Québecois on wait lists for elective surgery jumped by more than 7,100, as the chart below makes clear. This is directly as a result of délestage, the policy of postponing operations to make way for #COVID hospital beds.
3) In fact, since the start of the #pandemic in 2020, the number of patients on wait lists for so-called non-urgent surgery in Québec has soared by nearly 36% or more than 41,000. Many of these are orthopedic patients who are waiting in excruciating pain for a joint replacement.
4) On Wednesday, Quebec reported a welcome drop of 30 #COVID19 hospitalizations, but the total was still 1,777, and nearly 3,700 health workers were absent because of COVID. That compares with 1,181 hospitalizations at the end of May.
5) It would therefore not be wildly unrealistic to expect that when the weather grows colder in the fall and more people gather indoors that the more transmissible COVID #variants will infect more people and that hospitalizations will likely go back up.
6) If that turns out to be the case, what will the impact be on hospitals? Will Québec resume some form of délestage? Will certain medical imaging tests be postponed, which occurred during past #COVID waves? What will the impact be on the mental health of burned-out nurses?
7) Each COVID wave batters Québec’s fragile health-care system, leaving it arguably weaker than before. How many more waves can the system withstand? The impact is not only being felt on surgical wait lists...
8) Snapshots of the emergency rooms situation in Québec suggests that the #pandemic is worsening ER overcrowding in the province, as has been observed across Canada recently. The chart below shows ER congestion was much less of a problem in June of 2019 than this past summer.
9) Most ominously, the impact's been the most life-threatening for Québec cancer patients. Since Jan. 30, 2021, the number of such patients waiting for surgery has jumped by 1,093 to 4,245. Worse yet, more oncology patients are waiting longer than the maximum 57 days. See below.
10) This is but a brief summary gleaned from stats made public by the Health Ministry. I'd wager the situation “sur le terrain” is worse than I’ve laid out here. As I return to work Tuesday, you have my word I'll be digging deeper into this at the Montreal Gazette. End of thread.
I deleted my 1st tweet to tonight's thread: "As widespread complacency sets in surrounding #COVID19 — with few #pandemic precautions left in place — it’s worth setting the record straight on the impact of such a laissez-faire approach on Québec’s beleaguered health-care system."

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aug 21
1) As Most Quebecers prepare to return to work and school in 2 weeks' time, it’s worth revisiting the #COVID10 #pandemic in the province. In this thread, I will compare this point in time with the same periods in the last two years. Unfortunately, the comparison is not favorable.
2) This is not to suggest that Quebec will be crashing into an apocalyptic 8th wave this fall, but simply to underscore that the #pandemic is still with us, still churning out new virus variants, still hospitalizing people and still killing Quebecers amid stalled vaccination.
3) On Aug. 19, Quebec declared 999 new #COVID cases; a total of 1,997 hospitalizations (down by 14 from the day before); a dozen new fatalities, raising the death toll to 16,207. ICU stays were up by two, increasing the tally to 47.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 14
1) In a horrible déjà vu, China is again closing schools and locking down cities two years after first confronting the #pandemic. In this thread, I will focus on the latest resurgences worldwide and what this means as North America continues phasing out public health precautions.
2) For several weeks now, I’ve been writing about how Denmark’s battle with the more contagious #Omicron variant and BA.2 sub-variant should serve as a warning to Québec, the rest of Canada and the United States. In the United Kingdom, BA.2 infections are also now rising.
3) What’s more, BA.2 is proliferating in Finland (up by 43% in just four days), the Netherlands (up 29%), Italy (up 17%), Portugal (up 16%), Germany (up by 16%), France (up by 11%) and Spain (up by 7%). In retrospect, these countries lifted public health protections prematurely.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
1) Although the trend has received zero mention by the mainstream British media, epidemiologists and other experts in England are now warning about an uptick in #COVID hospitalizations in the United Kingdom since last week. In this thread, I will assess what this could mean.
2) If the increase in hospitalizations continues in the U.K., it would naturally serve as a warning to other jurisdictions — including Québec, the rest of Canada and the United States — that have been lifting public health precautions amid stalled booster vaccination campaigns.
3) Professor Christina Pagel, head of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, produced a Twitter thread Tuesday suggesting that the proliferation of the BA.2 sub-variant, waning booster immunity and a reduction in masks may be behind this increase.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 7
1) Since Vladimir Putin’s army invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, no other nation has accepted as many Ukranian refugees than Poland. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this mass displacement of a brave people on the #pandemic.
2) Poland’s Health Minister, Adam Niedzielski (@a_niedzielski) tweeted on the day the Russian invasion started that “every citizen of Ukraine who comes to Poland fearing for his health and life can count on access to medical care” – a truly noble statement, if there ever was one.
3) Since then, more than 756,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in Poland. But news reports also surfaced of some Polish nationalists attacking and abusing refugee students of African, south Asian and Middle Eastern origin who attempted to cross the Polish border from Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 6
1) In the past few days, numerous publications around the world have all but pronounced that the #COVID19 pandemic is over. In this thread, I will stress-test whether such optimism may be justified as we enter the third year of this horrific health crisis.
2) In a March 4 article about the state of the #pandemic in the Big Apple, the highly influential New York Times proclaimed that “this week, more than at any other point during the past two years, who we are finally began to feel more like who we were.”
3) In a March 2 Vox article, the authors interviewed 8 experts in "public health, virology, infectious disease ecology, medical anthropology, and medical history" who concluded “in the U.S. and much of Europe, the most destructive waves of COVID-19 are in the rearview mirror.”
Read 14 tweets
Mar 5
1) As Québec moves up its plans to lift public health precautions, it’s worth taking a step back to compare the state of the #pandemic in the province now with what occurred a year ago, and to ask whether the government’s latest actions might be premature. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Québec announced this week it’s moving up the date for the removal of the vaccine passport by two days, to March 12. And the mask mandate is now expected to be lifted by mid-April. But is such haste the prudent course of action during the worst respiratory pandemic since 1918?
3) A year ago, Québec’s hospitals were filled with 626 #COVID patients. In contrast, 1,313 patients were hospitalized yesterday, just below the peak of the 2nd wave last January. What’s more, the waiting list for surgeries has increased by at least 8,000 since January of 2021.
Read 11 tweets

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