Thread by @GresselGustav

So, as there is a growing debate on whether the #KhersonOffensive is a success or failure, I try to weight in a bit. In short, it is too early to tell. But expectations have been too high anyway, and likely to be disappointed because of that. @ecfr @ECFRWiderEurope

First, some general remarks on where we are in the war.
🇷🇺 has not yet lost its offensive momentum. Attacks on Bachmut and surroundings were still going on. Allthough they produced little results, they still bog down a lot of 🇺🇦 ressources.

Take a look at @JominiW's map from mid-August. THe most formidable 🇺🇦 armoured formations are still in the Donbas. No major re-deployments to Kherson have happened. I think only one or two tank battalions from brigades shown here.

When the offensive started on August 29th, Ukrainians did not have a nummerical or firepower superiority to force a breakthrough and shatter the Russians. Rather they identified weaknesses and poor coordination in the Russian defensive perimiter, they throught to exploit.

This is a difficult thing to pull: success rests on Russian misakes, rather than Ukrainian strength. If 🇷🇺 orderly withdraws to a second line, they will contain the offensive. If 🇺🇦 can keep the enemy moving, they have advantages of better coordination and leadership.

My humble view: 🇷🇺 have managed to orderly mann a second line, that will make it very difficult to advance further for 🇺🇦.
Still, 🇷🇺 have used a lot of ammunition in the past days, and supply routes to the front are difficult to say the least.

Especially if 🇷🇺 continues to drive counter-attacks, they may again over-extend their forces.
This may provide opportunities for 🇺🇦 to exploit. But it is impossible to predict.

Another observation: look at the @TheStudyofWar maps on the progress. Only mechanised formations achieved break-throughs: the 5th tank/60th motor in the North, 63rd Mech in the centre, 28th Mech in the South.
Without armour, you are screwed in this terrain.

This is unfortunately what Ukraine lacks. 🇺🇦 has lost roughly half of its MBT by now, even 🇵🇱 deliveries of 250+ tanks could not make up for it.
Even more dramatic is the loss and lack of IFV. BMP-1/2 are not survivable, burn with their entire crews.

But still better than getting butchered by artillery on the open field.
Every tincan in the West needs to make its way to 🇺🇦! In March I thought we could pool M-113 from various 🇺🇸🇪🇺 armies and have a single logistics and supply chain. Little has materialised, too few delivered.

We see entire infantry platoons on foot trying to hide between one M-113 crossing a field. We see infantry in AND on top of vehicles, because there are too few. All of that impedes the speed of advance and causes casualties. It can only be cured by more vehicles.

On a positive note, 🇺🇦 air defences interdict more and more 🇷🇺 missiles.
With 🇩🇪 IRIS-T and 🇺🇸 NASMAS comming soon, they can risk to fire more missiles. That in turn relieves 🇺🇦 industrial and logistical effort. Here there seems to be a silver-lining.

And at the end, please do not forget to donate to the 🇺🇦 armed forces.
It has been a while, attention decreases. Let's have a look into all our wallets whether we can spare a dime. bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/na…