Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) For most of the #pandemic, Canada’s #COVID death rate has been much lower than the United States’, reflecting the fact that a much greater percentage of the Canadian population has been vaccinated. But that mortality gap has been closing recently. Why is this happening?

2) Back at the beginning of February, for example, the #COVID19 mortality rate in the U.S. was a grim 7.73 deaths per million population, almost double Canada’s rate at the time, according to the chart below by Our World In Data.

3) The wide mortality gap on Feb. 1, 2022, could easily be explained by the fact that Canada’s #COVID19 vaccination rate was much higher than the one in the U.S. Canada’s higher vaccination rate was likely saving a lot more lives, proportionally, than south of the border.

4) But in an ominous twist, Canada’s #COVID death rate now nearly matches that of the United States. True, both the Canadian and U.S. death rates have fallen since Feb. 1, but recently Canada’s rate has been creeping up. (Please see below.) What’s going on?

5) What’s odd is the #COVID death gap between Canada and the U.S. is narrowing even though overall vaccination rates between the two countries is widening. Logically, a tightening mortality gap should be explained by a faster rising U.S. vaccination rate, but that's not the case.

6) At this point in this thread, some anti-vaxxers may be jumping for joy, claiming that this proves that #COVID vaccination does not work. This is an absurd fallacy that is clearly disproved by the huge mortality gap between the two countries back on Feb. 1.

7) What are the possible explanations? Has Canada or the United States started compiling their #COVID data differently? I doubt that’s the case. Are more virulent #COVID strains entering Canada? That’s unlikely, too.

8) Perhaps the #COVID death rates between the two countries is narrowing as a reflection of the fact that immunity is building up to higher levels in both countries as a result of repeated infection and vaccinations. That may be possible, but I’m not totally sure about this.

9) What adds to the mystery is that to date, 12.41% of the Canadian population has received two #COVID boosters following the primary series of shots, compared with a rate of just 7.04% of the U.S. population.

10) As bizarre as it may seem, could it be that Canada has been relaxing its #COVID precautions to a greater extent than in the United States? After all, Canada was beset by the angry truckers’ protests last winter against #pandemic precautions.

11) The chart below, compiled by Our World In Data, features a so-called stringency index. The index reveals an uptick in #pandemic measures in the United States compared with Canada. This difference might help explain why Canada’s #COVID mortality rate may be creeping up.

12) The uptick in #COVID deaths in Canada is at risk of rising as the weather grows colder and more people gather in offices, factories, shopping malls, schools and universities while the more transmissible #coronavirus variants circulate.

13) If there’s anything we’ve learned from the #pandemic is it’s unwise to underestimate it. In light of the closing #COVID mortality gap between Canada and the U.S., perhaps it’s time to reconsider some #pandemic precautions in addition to booster vaccination. End of thread.