During @PTIofficial’s last year in power (Jul-2021 to Mar-2022), Pakistan’s total debt (domestic + external) increased by PKR 4.4 trillion (or US$25.1 billion @ an average USD:PKR parity of 175).
Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.
@PTIofficial added debt at a rate of PKR 550 billion (or US$3.1 billion) per month.
Now let’s have a look at what happened post-VONC:
During the first 4 months of @pmln_org & @MediaCellPPP’s govt. aka PDM (Apr-2022 to Jul-2022), #Pakistan’s total debt has increased by PKR 7.4 trillion (or US$36.1 billion @ ave. USD:PKR parity of 205).
Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.
#PDM has added debt at a rate of PKR 1.85 trillion (or US$9.0 billion) per month.
* MATTER OF GRAVE CONCERN 🚨*
Given its current trajectory (see graph), one can easily expect the first 5-months debt accumulation of #PDM to cross the PKR 10 trillion mark (or US$47.6 billion @ upwards revised ave. USD:PKR parity of 210).
Alarm bells ringing 🔔 in Islamabad?
For decades, each successive govt. in #Pakistan has lacked both fiscal discipline (through poor reforms in @FBRSpokesperson) & monetary discipline (through a quasi-control over @StateBank_Pak).
In the process, #GOP has racked up an atrocious quantum of domestic & external debt.
Irresponsible & incompetent politicians, bureaucrats, and military dictatorships come and go.
It shall, however, fall on the shoulders of the current and future generations of #Pakistan 🇵🇰 to repay this staggering debt.
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They’ve also cast doubt on the sincerity of #GOP’s intentions going forward, which is why they have decided to literally force some of the fiscal (read: price hikes) and monetary adjustments (read: unpegging of the disastrous #DarPeg) on this hapless #PDM coalition government.
A government whose leader very publicly expressed his frustration the other day when he said that the “#IMF is giving Pakistan a tough time”.
Well it’s about time someone did. The jokers in Islamabad have been recklessly profligate in wasting precious taxpayer resources.
There are two very clear scenarios in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 at the moment:
Scenario 1 —
Finance Minister @MIshaqDar50 continues “managing” the country’s exchange rate. Once he’s gone (3-6 months), and a caretaker government comes in, PKR will shoot up (possibly overshoot) to previously unseen levels beyond 275 vs. USD.
Scenario 2 —
Mr. Dar decides to let PKR find its true value based on market fundamentals driven by #Pakistan’s true (glaring 👀) macroeconomic realities. In this scenario, I foresee PKR depreciating to between 250-260 & stabilising within this range for the next 6 months.
Agha Hasan Abedi — legendary banker & founding President of #BCCI (Bank of Credit & Commerce International) — the world’s 7th largest privately owned bank.
A bank run by Pakistanis 🇵🇰 & financed by the Ruling Family of Abu Dhabi 🇦🇪 & prominent family offices of Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦.
Founded in 1972, during a meeting of senior bankers in Beirut, #Lebanon 🇱🇧, #BCCI went on to open up branches & launch full-fledged commercial banking operations in 73 countries around the world by 1989. This included opening the first branch of a foreign-owned bank in #China 🇨🇳.
In the mid-1980’s, Agha Hasan Abedi (or Agha Sahib as he was called fondly by colleagues), negotiated the acquisition of a very unique banking operation in the #UnitedStates 🇺🇸. The bank acquired had licenses to operate in 15-16 states in the US. An unprecedented transaction.
Is there no one in this government who can forecast trade deficit & CAD correctly even for the next 3 months?
I mean how can forecasting be so out that it leads to these kind of alarming surprises & doesn’t help MoF & SBP take pre-emptive measures before time? @MuzzammilAslam3
Spending $ billions a year on imported CBU’s & CKD’s for fossil fuel cars for a country that is heavily dependent on imported energy is a highly unintelligent strategy.
Those who were pushing for reducing duties on imported vehicles must be asked as to what they were thinking.
Secondly, for a net energy importer that should look to reduce its dependence on oil, an auto policy propagating the import of legacy vehicles instead of electric vehicles is completely flawed. The auto & auto parts lobby had sold the idea of auto sector exports to @PTIofficial.
This is an eye-opening depiction of how successive govt’s have mismanaged debt in #Pakistan.
85% of 🇵🇰’s tax revenues are now used to service debt.
Under the circumstances, #GOP & @PTIofficial have a few options that they can employ:
1) Ramp up tax revenue growth —
@NadraPak has a list of 3 million top spenders of #Pakistan. Now is the time to act & hold tax evaders accountable. @FBRSpokesperson, @shaukat_tarin, and NADRA, in coordination, need to start knocking on some doors.
2) Stop the bleeding from Public Sector Enterprises (PSE’s) —
Prioritise the privatisation of entities that are bleeding the most. A presentation to this effect & why privatisation has become so critical for Pakistan’s economic security should be given by @ImranKhanPTI himself.
Interesting things happening in 🇵🇰’s banking sector related to #GCC-based sponsors.
Samba Bank is leaving 🇵🇰 🔜 after parent entity’s merger with NCB in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, & MergeCo Saudi National Bank’s decision to divest some assets.
Silk Bank is on perpetual sale after its abysmal performance in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 despite benefitting from one of the highest equity injections till-date. It is to be sold 🔜 and IFC / Nomura / Bank Muscat / Gourmet Group along with others will take a massive hit on their investment.
In banking, the best combination is always *a strong sponsor with a strong management team*. If you can get that right, there’s no better business in #Pakistan.
However, if your institution does not benefit from either of the two, then the bank is highly likely to underperform.