Thread by @MrKovalenko

#Ukraine confirmed that it struck the Russian air bases on the occupied #Crimean peninsula. This is an element of the victorious war strategy described a bit by the UAF Chief Commander Gen. Zaluzhniy in his article published today by @UKRINFORM [Thread⬇️] ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/356…

[2] Gen. Zaluzhniy's article is a semi-academic analysis of chances & opportunities for the enemy & the UAF for the 2013 bcs - as he says - "there're all reasons to think that it [war] will go behind the calendar limits of 2022".

[3] Gen. Zaluzhniy emphasises on the need for "several consecutive, and ideally simultaneous counteroffensives" during 2023. He also assumes that 2023, not 2022 (as many hope) has a chance to be a transformational year when the UAF may get an advantage over the RAF.

[4] Gen. Zaluzhniy thinks that to liberate #Crimea (if Russia won't abandon it) the UAF will require 10-20 new brigades fully equipped with the western weapons & ammo. Ukraine can mobilize more men for new brigades, but it will be a challenge for the West to arm and supply them.

[5] Gen. Zaluzhniy thinks that even if UAF will liberate Crimea, this won't bring a change or an advantage. This won't cancel the Black Sea navy, air power, missile threat. Moreover, soon Russia will replenish lost manpower & weaponry. So, the war strategy should be different.

[6] Gen. Zaluzhniy thinks that the Russian interest is not in #Crimea, but in the disproportion in combat capabilities with Ukraine. For example, Russia exploits the 20 times advantage in the ranges of the striking capabilities while UAF can strike back only up to 100 km.

[7] Gen. Zaluzhniy thinks that Russia can continue this war for years until #Ukraine will get [from the West] the equal striking capabilities as Russia has, so it it will realize that it will face retaliation all over the Russian territory for further attacks.

[8] The 2023 task for UAF - as Gen. Zaluzhniy states - is to let the Russian society to feel that this war is close to their homes (not far away & on TV), as UAF has already demonstrated by rocket strikes on the air bases in occupied #Crimea that shocked Russian tourists.

[9] Gen. Zaluzhniy says that "impunity due to physical distancing", not only imperial aspirations is what really inspires the Kremlin to continue the war against #Ukraine. He asks the West to keep this aspect in mind.

[10] A co-author of this artcile is Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodsky, the first deputy chief of the Parliament Committee of Nat. Sec., defense & intel.