the other thing to note is that COMEX inventories are falling at the same time.
Thus, unlike the drop in 2020 where LBMA silver flows went to backstop the COMEX vaults, both are experiencing simultaneous drains as silver is consumed by demand in excess of supply
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Since the beginning of the year I've been expanding into many commodities and inflation plays and have been periodically rebalancing my weights based on market moves
This is probably a bit more diversified than some may have thought, also why I thought I should start sharing
I'm overdue on updating the fed pivot indicator, and frankly it's showing we have arrived already
We are at the point where the fed would usually halt rate hikes and begin easing again
As they gear up for 75bp in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral
what is a debt death spiral? It's an increasingly large debt load, with ongoing deficit, that only gets exponentially larger as interest expense increases
The treasury has to issue more bills/notes/bonds to fund interest which drives up supply and can overwhelm demand
Revisiting SMOEC, and updating some of the old excel charts for you guys
I've since begun tracking SMOEC (SIlver - MOney - EConomy) in trading view because its automated and easier, but there's some fun things in the excel charts also
As you can see it's been pretty flat, and has technically been flat since April 2020
Why use nominal GDP? I made SMOEC as a way to measure silver valuation levels without touching CPI at all, given the changes over the years to how it's measured. So Real GDP is a no go for me
The next step is to divide the silver price by said ratio and then you have what I call 'SMOEC' ("smoke")
I do think there is some subjectivity on how you draw the long term support line, so I've drawn both of my interpretations here