TheHappyHawaiian Profile picture… Buy silver, platinum, & uranium for the trade of the decade I don’t live in Hawaii, just enjoy it immensely! $PSLV, not $SLV
JustHangin Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
Sep 6 4 tweets 1 min read
Call me crazy,

But European nations bailing out most of their industrial sector is smart policy

Idle the most energy intensive and subsidize the rest for this winter along with households

Their currencies would fall much more if their entire economies imploded They need something to export as the dust settles otherwise it’s just all downhill

By using debt they spread the cost of this crisis over many years

In exchange they face higher inflation now

It’s the tradeoff I expect the US to participate in eventually as well
Aug 11 4 tweets 2 min read
I said I'd start doing this, and I'm still only on twitter and reddit, so here is as good of place as any

Just finished a rebalance exercise so it's a good time to add it all up

Current approximate allocation in my portfolios (including my self managed 401k): #Silver (PSLV + Physical) 16.4%
#Platinum (PPLT + Physical) 14.5%
$LTPZ 14.4%
$SILJ 13.9%
$PICK 8.5%
$URNM 8.1%
$USO 6.9%
$GDXJ 4.7%
$CENX Jan Calls 2.4%
$SII Feb Calls 1.8%
$ANGPY 1.4%
$IMPUY 1.4%
$PLG 1.4%
$RJZ 1.4%
$LAND 1.4%
#Gold (PHYS + Physical) 0.7%
Cash/Other 0.8%
Jul 11 11 tweets 3 min read
I'm overdue on updating the fed pivot indicator, and frankly it's showing we have arrived already

We are at the point where the fed would usually halt rate hikes and begin easing again

As they gear up for 75bp in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral
Jul 10 4 tweets 1 min read
Do you agree with my TV show ratings?

For me a 7.0 is considered good/decent

A 10 is a masterpiece continued to the 8s
Jun 24 11 tweets 4 min read
Revisiting SMOEC, and updating some of the old excel charts for you guys

I've since begun tracking SMOEC (SIlver - MOney - EConomy) in trading view because its automated and easier, but there's some fun things in the excel charts also

1st, here's the Money Supply to GDP ratio: As you can see it's been pretty flat, and has technically been flat since April 2020

Why use nominal GDP? I made SMOEC as a way to measure silver valuation levels without touching CPI at all, given the changes over the years to how it's measured. So Real GDP is a no go for me
Jun 24 6 tweets 3 min read
Ok so @GlobalProTrader blocked me because I disagreed with his tweet a month ago that the 30yr yield had broken out

Didn't say anything offensive at all

How do so many on #fintwit get such large followings when they act like this? ImageImageImage Honestly let me know if there was something other than this, if there is I can't find it, but I'm open minded if I offended somehow @GlobalProTrader

it appears he deleted his tweet after I posted my chart though
Jun 24 4 tweets 2 min read
Not much of a victory lap for the home price crash crowd, three charts in this thread:

1st one, the average price of new homes, still up 15% from a year ago even with this print 2nd one, new homes but using median prices, still up 15% from a year ago
May 6 8 tweets 3 min read
The fed is in danger of crashing the housing market. The mortgage payment index adjusted for #inflation is now at a record high

Do I think that nominal home prices in the US will decline on a year-over-year basis? I still don't think so and here's why 👇

(click chart to zoom) The mortgage payment index is comprised on 3 things: nominal home prices, interest rates, and inflation

Thus there are 3 ways this chart can decline back into the safety zone below the yellow trend line

1. Home prices decline
2. Mortgage rates decline
3. Inflation stays high
May 6 4 tweets 2 min read
After the 50bp in hikes we just had, it's likely we are about done with the hiking cycle

The chart below is the national debt times the average of the fed funds rate and 5yr yield

The orange line is where we are now (data is from FRED so always a bit delayed)

We've arrived We're in the zone currently that's kind of the "overflow" area that marked the previous 2 tops in the fed funds rate. You can see the fed funds rate in the chart above (the teal colored line)

Fed funds rate peaks when we risk going into a federal debt spiral
May 6 6 tweets 3 min read
I'm back from my week not posting, and here's my forecast for the #inflation numbers on Wednesday 5/11

I forecast the #CPI headline to be 8.2% year-over-year, down from 8.6% YoY in March

Month-over-Month that's 0.35%, down from 1.24%

Core CPI I predict 5.6% YoY, down from 6.2% This reading should give the fed some hope that inflation is dying down, but we've also heard that before, if I'm right with my call of 0.35% for April, the red line is where the trailing 6 month inflation would be

We've had pauses on this journey before, so can't trust 1 month
Mar 13 5 tweets 2 min read
A lot of my fellow silverbugs are into KVT token

One not so great aspect of it right now is that it’s still in ICO stage, meaning only @KinesisMonetary can sell it

That shows a lack of confidence in the price. They “temporarily” suspended trading of KVT for users two years ago I just question what “temporary” means in this regard. Sounds like a similar time period to “transitory”

Actually longer now, transitory was only one year for the fed’s usage of it
Nov 5, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
I have a sad announcement for all of my #fintwit friends who post frequently about real yields and the market's long term #inflation expectations

It's fake, and its staring us right in the face

The @federalreserve
is in near full control of this "market based" signal

Anyone who needs a reminder, the breakeven rate is the yield on a nominal treasury bond less the yield on treasury inflation protected securities

It's an approximation of the market's expectation of future inflation over the duration of the bond

Yield and price move inverse
Oct 29, 2021 11 tweets 2 min read
I have a friend who helps manage wealth for clients net worth $500m+

They all have loans against their holdings at 0.1%, fixed five year terms

That’s the money they live on

They never sell, when they die basis is adjusted via step-up and they never pay cap gains

Tax free life What about estate tax?!

No one pays estate tax, you set up a series of trusts and your heirs get all the money estate and cap gains tax free

$20 billion annually is collected via estate taxes, of $140 trillion in wealth

The only way you pay is if you have very poor planning
Oct 28, 2021 6 tweets 6 min read
Let's talk #Gold and #Silver price targets for the current bull run, follow along and see if you're picking up what I'm putting down

Start with long duration TIPS ETF, $LTPZ

Just broke out of a perfect cup and handle, and using the basic extension puts it on a path to $99 Image Next look at #Gold relative to long duration TIPS,

the $PHYS / $LTPZ ratio

It's been on an steady uptrend since 2015, and if you ignore the covid period, has a solid upper resistance as well, which if it touched in the next 6 months, would be a ratio of roughly 0.1750 Image
Apr 27, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
The fact that @PeterSchiff defended unallocated #silver accounts again on his show, but without adding anything of substance, shows what a great job the true precious metals community is doing

Keep educating people as to what these accounts are, get a refund, buy real metal! I’m clearly not alone in saying this, but the metal just isn’t there

And #perthmint & @Kitco_Metals dont hide that fact either

You are lending money and paying a shitload of fees to do so

You have little to no rights in these contracts. It’s simply a terrible product
Apr 25, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
$BTC longs looking to park money during the bear market should consider #silver

Another dollar-bear, inflation hedge, scarcity asset play

21 million total bitcoin, only 2 million of the 1000 oz silver bars. Respective prices are ~$50k vs ~$26k

10x as scarce, 1/2 the cost not to mention the fact that a majority of annual silver that gets mined is used in swiftly growing high-tech industries such as EVs, solar, chips, batteries, satellites, etc

It has a baseline demand that's functional and burns supply
Apr 25, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
I listened to you discuss oil on the Silver Fortune podcast @SRSroccoReport

I have a couple of questions on that energy outlook

1. What about the countervailing trend of increased energy efficiency, better MPG, reduced electricity usage in lighting and AC, electric vehicles? Over the last decade alone I saw in another report the ‘bite’ of higher oil prices has been reduced by 30% due to the last decade of progress, why will this not continue?

2. As oil prices rise, it incentivizes renewables to proliferate faster, and scale makes them cheaper