POV, you’re a 45 year old white male

You just got laid off from your white collar job

Unemployment pays $400 a week, so you don’t sign up because Uber pays $600

Government doesn’t even acknowledge job loss as an issue

You can’t get hired because no one is hiring and even if they are it’s only for DEI candidates

Meanwhile your Uber earnings are dropping because we’re importing unskilled labor at the highest level in history due to illegal immigration

The government gives them preloaded debit cards, free housing, and they work Uber

If you have an issue with any of this you’re racist, and also men are seen as the source of all of society’s problems

The message? Please just stop existing

Unfortunately the message is being received

Societal empathy for this human subgroup’s suffering? Zero, perhaps negative Would be nice if they color coded the legend on the chart

Nevertheless, here’s the data

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

That’s because there isn’t a real solution to the inflation problem

Long term inflating away debt and massively expanding commodity supply, but you have to let inflation run hot for a long time to achieve that

The fire has to burn itself out

https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1638885695686148096

Let me expound for the people who think we can hike our way out inflation, even if it means another Great Depression

The problem is federal debt levels

We’re nowhere near a budget surplus and higher interest expense simply means even bigger deficits, more debt, and debt spirals

A short summary of @WallStreetSilv, aka @Galactic_Trader aka Jim Lewis aka James Morrison

- Lied about being a “Merrill Lynch Trader” in his original account

- grew to 10k followers off that

- joined WSS after #silversqueeze

- immediately started pushing out other moderators Ask yourself, would this guy have any issues opening Jim’s iPhone with Face ID?

And why do they both live in Tampa?

And why did the caller ID shows “James Morrison” when @WallStreetSilv called?

It’s ridiculous people think they aren’t the same person. Idk what to tell you

We waste so much time on the fed and their supposed ability to stop #inflation

They can't control it, they just affect the timing

Tightening now just means more inflation later, it's kicking the can

The inflation is inevitable, Powell simply decides the WHEN, not the IF "if Powell eases now he'll repeat the mistakes of Arthur Burns and allow inflation to become a bigger problem"

The reality is inflation is going to be a big problem no matter what, but Powell has the choice to cause economic downturn to delay it

Two years ago on 1/27/21 I posted my #silversqueeze post on Wallstreetbets

It was a Wednesday night in the middle of the GameStop controversy

Four days later #silver was squeezing

Robinhood banned buying of PSLV

A few days later $SLV changed their prospectus

Crazy times 2 months later the #LBMA admitted they over represented their inventories by 110m ounces of silver

A month after that they released a report saying they came roughly 2 weeks from running out of silver

@CFTCbehnam admitted they “had to tamp down” the silver run up

As the midterms approach, it’s important to remember the @uscensusbureau admitted to significantly over counting in some states and under counting in others

And we all just shrugged and said “well we’ll fix it in 2030”

RI and MN should have one less seat and TX and FL one more Just crazy to me that in May 2022 with plenty of time to fix the mistakes before this election we didn’t

And not only that, but we aren’t going to fix it for the next 4 elections either

TX and FL are going to be underrepresented in the house for a decade now and MN and RI over

Home prices as measured by the Case Shiller index fell 1.3% in the month August

Year over year home prices are up 13%

The fed continues to break the economy and even moreso housing with mortgage rates over 7% People keep saying “Powell needs to a pull a Volcker to kill inflation”

Well when it comes to housing he already has

This is the inflation adjusted mortgage payment index

We’re at the highest levels since 1981 and nearing all time highs

He’s done too much too fast

Another 2% of #platinum NYMEX inventories gone today

229k ounces left

#platinumsqueeze continues to build Another 1% today, chippin away

Call me crazy,

But European nations bailing out most of their industrial sector is smart policy

Idle the most energy intensive and subsidize the rest for this winter along with households

Their currencies would fall much more if their entire economies imploded They need something to export as the dust settles otherwise it’s just all downhill

By using debt they spread the cost of this crisis over many years

In exchange they face higher inflation now

It’s the tradeoff I expect the US to participate in eventually as well

I said I'd start doing this, and I'm still only on twitter and reddit, so here is as good of place as any

Just finished a rebalance exercise so it's a good time to add it all up

Current approximate allocation in my portfolios (including my self managed 401k):

https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1540359184306380800

#Silver (PSLV + Physical) 16.4%
#Platinum (PPLT + Physical) 14.5%
$LTPZ 14.4%
$SILJ 13.9%
$PICK 8.5%
$URNM 8.1%
$USO 6.9%
$GDXJ 4.7%
$CENX Jan Calls 2.4%
$SII Feb Calls 1.8%
$ANGPY 1.4%
$IMPUY 1.4%
$PLG 1.4%
$RJZ 1.4%
$LAND 1.4%
#Gold (PHYS + Physical) 0.7%
Cash/Other 0.8%

I'm overdue on updating the fed pivot indicator, and frankly it's showing we have arrived already

We are at the point where the fed would usually halt rate hikes and begin easing again

As they gear up for 75bp in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral

Do you agree with my TV show ratings?

For me a 7.0 is considered good/decent

A 10 is a masterpiece continued to the 8s

Revisiting SMOEC, and updating some of the old excel charts for you guys

I've since begun tracking SMOEC (SIlver - MOney - EConomy) in trading view because its automated and easier, but there's some fun things in the excel charts also

1st, here's the Money Supply to GDP ratio:

https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1407746939576332292

As you can see it's been pretty flat, and has technically been flat since April 2020

Why use nominal GDP? I made SMOEC as a way to measure silver valuation levels without touching CPI at all, given the changes over the years to how it's measured. So Real GDP is a no go for me

Ok so @GlobalProTrader blocked me because I disagreed with his tweet a month ago that the 30yr yield had broken out

Didn't say anything offensive at all

How do so many on #fintwit get such large followings when they act like this? Honestly let me know if there was something other than this, if there is I can't find it, but I'm open minded if I offended somehow @GlobalProTrader

it appears he deleted his tweet after I posted my chart though

https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1528715846545297410?s=20&t=Zt24qjqxBWRnyYo3gPLo6g

Not much of a victory lap for the home price crash crowd, three charts in this thread:

1st one, the average price of new homes, still up 15% from a year ago even with this print

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1540334846119141376

2nd one, new homes but using median prices, still up 15% from a year ago

The fed is in danger of crashing the housing market. The mortgage payment index adjusted for #inflation is now at a record high

Do I think that nominal home prices in the US will decline on a year-over-year basis? I still don't think so and here's why 👇

(click chart to zoom) The mortgage payment index is comprised on 3 things: nominal home prices, interest rates, and inflation

Thus there are 3 ways this chart can decline back into the safety zone below the yellow trend line

1. Home prices decline
2. Mortgage rates decline
3. Inflation stays high

After the 50bp in hikes we just had, it's likely we are about done with the hiking cycle

The chart below is the national debt times the average of the fed funds rate and 5yr yield

The orange line is where we are now (data is from FRED so always a bit delayed)

We've arrived

https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1517598624032645127

We're in the zone currently that's kind of the "overflow" area that marked the previous 2 tops in the fed funds rate. You can see the fed funds rate in the chart above (the teal colored line)

Fed funds rate peaks when we risk going into a federal debt spiral

I'm back from my week not posting, and here's my forecast for the #inflation numbers on Wednesday 5/11

I forecast the #CPI headline to be 8.2% year-over-year, down from 8.6% YoY in March

Month-over-Month that's 0.35%, down from 1.24%

Core CPI I predict 5.6% YoY, down from 6.2% This reading should give the fed some hope that inflation is dying down, but we've also heard that before, if I'm right with my call of 0.35% for April, the red line is where the trailing 6 month inflation would be

We've had pauses on this journey before, so can't trust 1 month

A lot of my fellow silverbugs are into KVT token

One not so great aspect of it right now is that it’s still in ICO stage, meaning only @KinesisMonetary can sell it

That shows a lack of confidence in the price. They “temporarily” suspended trading of KVT for users two years ago I just question what “temporary” means in this regard. Sounds like a similar time period to “transitory”

Actually longer now, transitory was only one year for the fed’s usage of it

I have a sad announcement for all of my #fintwit friends who post frequently about real yields and the market's long term #inflation expectations

It's fake, and its staring us right in the face

The @federalreserve
is in near full control of this "market based" signal

Proof
1/ Anyone who needs a reminder, the breakeven rate is the yield on a nominal treasury bond less the yield on treasury inflation protected securities

It's an approximation of the market's expectation of future inflation over the duration of the bond

Yield and price move inverse

I have a friend who helps manage wealth for clients net worth $500m+

They all have loans against their holdings at 0.1%, fixed five year terms

That’s the money they live on

They never sell, when they die basis is adjusted via step-up and they never pay cap gains

Tax free life

https://twitter.com/JimForsythe5/status/1454074040906362881

What about estate tax?!

No one pays estate tax, you set up a series of trusts and your heirs get all the money estate and cap gains tax free

$20 billion annually is collected via estate taxes, of $140 trillion in wealth

The only way you pay is if you have very poor planning