Here is a twist, I am getting the "@K_G_Andersen treatment". 😂😂
Stick around, it is a teaching lesson.
#Lableak trolls just realized that I thought a leak plausible when I entered the discussion right after the Nicholas Wade Op-ed, and think that is a 'gotcha'
1/
I have often proclaimed that I came late to the discussion, and also, that I was initially favoring #lableak, just based on my personal experience with how quickly lab accidents might happen.
When the Wade Op-ed hit, I thought well, respectable outlet, maybe its true? 2/
It certainly felt intuitive.
But here comes the lesson:
I did not want to leave it to my #intuition, I wanted to know the #truth.
Very soon (~2 weeks) after, I realized that the scientific #evidence tells a very different story, even at a time when uncertainty was higher. 3/
Having been a bit annoyed at myself how easily I fell to the shoddy manipulative Nicholas Wade article, I decided to collect my thoughts and write a debunk #scicomm article. 🔽
In that, I addressed Wade's main arguments, all of which were garbage.
My blog article was published in June 21, mere weeks after the Wade article came out.
I guess my little #origin story (😅) shows that even a trained scientist can be fooled by intuition and #misplaced trust.
More importantly, however, it should show that once scientific 5/
evidence becomes available (or one is made aware of it), that we ought to #change our mind with the evidence.
It should also show that this can happy very #quickly, in my case, a few weeks
Now let's return to our dear #lableak proponents, who, after spending years commenting
6/
still have not managed to look at the #evidence (which has become overwhelming in ruling out all #lableak scenarios)
They are perpetually stuck in #talking points from early 2020, desperate to the sad point of quote mining me a few hours ago to feed their #confirmation bias
7/
Not realizing that they actually just achieved the opposite, confirming my #authenticity in the endeavor while exposing their ineptitude. 😂
I hope they will use this little thread as #inspiration to look at the evidence, and maybe find it in themselves to go with it too.
8/
Again, it is not bad to change one's mind when the #evidence demands it, it is laudable. Everybody should do it.
There is no #shame in changing one's mind, the wonderful thing about having a belief disproven by science is that it #freed us of a bad idea.
That's it.
/end
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Very interesting paper from Jijón S. et al., using a population-dynamic approach (not a whole genome seq. approach) to date the first spillover event of the Wuhan outbreak
--> Nov.28
This is a methodologically independent confirmation of previously published estimates.
1/
The idea is to look at how an epidemic progresses (based on branching) and infer these dynamical parameters from known progressions
Once the model is calibrated, it can be used to estimate a time window when the first infection likely occurred; which might be before the tMRCA 2/
This is a complementary approach to phylogenetic dating that uses the mutational divergence over time to calculate back when the first cases likely occurred.
Overall, it matches previous estimates. So nothing new?
Let me quickly explain why I think this is important work:
3/
As 2024 ushered in a new year of myth, #manipulation & magical thinking, too few have adjusted to counterbalance the #vulnerabilities of our broken information ecosystem
During US elections, this might spell democratic backsliding as online #discourse will be weaponized
A 🧵
1/
The disruption of our information technology broke a few things we needed as guardrails for democracy, such as the free flow of information & journalistic principles for information sharing
Today, gatekeepers have changed to:
#Algorithms, #influencers & #audience demand
2/
The dynamics and incentives between those three largely shape what information average citizens get to see
This is problematic because info #shapers are not aligned with public interest or democracy, but rather with the pursuit of #popularity, #persuasion, #profit, or #power
3/
One thing that is fascinating with the history of the #lableak myth is how many people have been fooled by naïve claims that "one can not tell from the genome" one way or the other whether this is a natural virus.
This is false.
In the case of SARS-CoV-2, there is zero doubt. 1/
People might have encountered arguments such as we can modify viruses with "no see 'um" genetic methods, or just design a sequence & synthesize whole cloth
-> this implies nobody can ever #disprove whether a new genome has been man-made, only sometimes prove that it was 2/
There are multiple reasons why this popularized idea is flawed, both in general, but especially in the #specific circumstances of SARS-CoV-2.
First an analogy:
Merely learning how to write musical notes does not bestow the ability to suddenly create a complete symphony
3/