Thread by @parents4future

#ClimateTippingPoints may lead to abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts with serious implications for humanity

🆕(2022-09-09) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming.

1/🧵 | via @W_Lucht | #ClimateCrisis #EndFossilFuels

RESULTS

We identify 9 global “core” tipping elements which contribute substantially to 🌎 system functioning & 7 regional “impact” tipping elements which contribute substantially to human welfare or have great value as unique features of the 🌏 system
2/
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Their estimated CTP thresholds have significant implications for climate policy: Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of five CTP uncertainty ranges.
3/
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Six CTPs become likely (with a further four possible) within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs & widespread abrupt permafrost thaw.
4/
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

An additional CTP becomes likely and another three possible at the ~2.6°C of warming expected under current policies.
5/
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

CONCLUSION
Our assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change. We show that even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C & preferably 1.5°C is not safe as 1.5°C & above risks crossing multiple tipping points.
6/

Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented...
7/

...it could reach just below 2°C. This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points.
8/