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Sep 11 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Tigray authorities say they are ready to abide by an immediate cessation of hostilities, to create a conducive atmosphere for AU-led talks under *mutually-acceptable" mediators, with int'l observers to help build trust, instill confidence in the process & support implementation.
These are all fairly standard components of peace processes. The Govt of Ethiopia has been resistant to calls for int'l observers, however. Will they accept them now? This would notionally require granting them access to Tigray & conflict-affected parts of Amhara & Afar.
What Tigray authorities are proposing was presumably part of the discussions between AU & US officials in recent days, and appears to be the result of the reported talks in Djibouti.
The mandate of Obasanjo, the AU High Rep for the Horn, has recently been extended, however, despite Tigrayan objections to what they perceive as bias on his part. How will AU leaders respond to the call for "mutually acceptable mediators" now?
It is probably no coincidence that Tigray leaders released this statement today, ahead of tomorrow's #UNSC meeting - seeking to put the ball in federal authorities' court.
These guys aren't fans. Can't imagine why Abiy didn't announce he was sending a delegation to Djibouti...
Lol
The AU leadership, on the other hand, welcomes the statement:
Notably, the AU statement makes reference to "the Regional Government of Tigray" instead of "the TPLF", which several previous AU docs have used.

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More from @LaurenBinDC

Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Sep 10
The restrictions on US military aid were imposed in May 2021 (before the targeted sanctions regime was announced in Sept). But Ethiopia isn't reliant on US $ for its AMISOM deployment, and didn't cut its AU troop levels. 1/
state.gov/united-states-…

amisom-au.org/ethiopia-endf/
Ethiopia did, however, reportedly withdraw some sizable # of troops it deploys bilaterally (not part of AMISOM/ATMIS) in Somalia at the start of the war and again as the TDF expanded its operations in the latter months of 2021. The US does not support the bilat deployment.
So if Ethiopia pulled 3000 troops from Somalia, as she claims, it wasn't because of US security assistance restrictions, it was because the govt needed more troops to fight the war in N. Ethiopia.
Read 5 tweets
Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Sep 9
#Ethiopia's government says that the @UN_HRC-authorized #ICHREE has "weaponized human rights for political pressure and exposed its true intentions, foreclosing all doors of cooperation with the Government."

The ICHREE statement:
ohchr.org/en/statements/…
The ICHREE statement:
🔹expresses deep concern with the renewed hostilities
🔹calls on the parties to immediately cease hostilities, respect IHL obligations & return to dialogue
🔹welcomes the UNSC decision to discuss the situation & urges the UNSC to keep it high on the agenda
and
🔹"calls upon the Council to take action under the Charter needed to ensure the protection of civilians and prevent escalation that could further destabilize the region"

That last bullet is presumably what the Govt of Ethiopia found threatening.
Read 5 tweets
Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Dec 23, 2021
There seems to be some confusion about AGOA - the law (written and passed by Congress) doesn't give the executive branch the option to "extend the deadline." Ethiopia was determined ineligible for AGOA trade benefits in 2022 bc it did not meet this requirement (10 USC 23 §3703):
The law can be read here:
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=…
A suspension of military operations is a positive step, but the Biden Administration's determination regarding Ethiopia was in response to "gross violations of internationally recognized human rights."
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 6 tweets
Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Dec 21, 2021
The irony of #NoMore is that it seems to deny Tigrayans & other Ethiopians who have rebelled against the government agency. The civil war will just "end in days" if the US tells TPLF leaders to surrender? Why would the TPLF do that?
TPLF leaders will no more surrender than Tigrayans will voluntarily disarm. Because they see themselves facing an existential threat, and they point to a long list of abuses & atrocities since Nov 2020, incl. mass detentions & killings, and a humanitarian blockade as evidence.
The authors write of "lurid TPLF atrocities" but there is little mention of abuses in Tigray (other than MaiKadra). Most abuses in Tigray, according to @UNHumanRights, were committed by govt-aligned forces. The JIT said some may amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity.
Read 8 tweets
Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Jul 15, 2021
Interesting to see the sudden upsurge of stated concern over the use of child soldiers in Tigray from social media accounts that haven't previously expressed concern with the implications of the conflict for children there.
unicef.org/press-releases…
International humanitarian law prohibits the recruitment and use of children below the age of 15 in hostilities. A helpful summary from ICRC here:
casebook.icrc.org/glossary/child…
Many of the accounts expressing outrage now over the reports of child soldiers in Tigray, however, have not expressed similar concern over the estimated 140,000 children there whom UNICEF reported were face famine-like conditions in June.
unicef.org/press-releases….
Read 7 tweets
Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Jul 14, 2021
As Tigrayan forces retake territory and Amhara leaders rally their own forces, PM Abiy's government signals what appears to be an end to its ceasefire. The hostilities bode ill for civilians caught in the middle, and for efforts to stop famine from spreading in #Tigray. 1/
#Ethiopia's government appears to suggest it will allow aid operations in #Tigray as it moves to "defend the country's sovereignty and reverse the threat posed by internal and external enemies of the country."
Only one convoy of aid supplies has been allowed to enter #Tigray since the GoE declared its ceasefire on 6/28, however - others were blocked. Aid agencies stress an urgent opening of access is necessary to stop famine conditions from spreading.
thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2021/7/12…
Read 9 tweets

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