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Lauren Blanchard Profile picture
Lauren Blanchard
@LaurenBinDC
Views expressed are my own, RT/Follows do not indicate endorsements. Limited patience for trolls or info manipulation.
Jun 3 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
The UN humanitarian coordination forum @iascch has released its evaluation of the int'l humanitarian response to the #Tigray conflict in N. #Ethiopia, describing it as a "system failure" marked by a "total lack of accountability." 🧵
reliefweb.int/report/ethiopi… "The blockade of aid imposed by the Government of Ethiopia was among the top defining characteristics of this crisis, yet there was no collective access strategy for Northern Ethiopia." Per the @iascch, the access agreement signed by the UN HC became an FDRE🇪🇹 control mechanism Image
Sep 21, 2023 • 23 tweets • 3 min read
Listening to the remarks at today's session on Ethiopia, you might think many of the country reps hadn't read #ICHREE's report, or listened to ICHREE Chair Othman's briefing at the start of the session. The ICHREE presentation begins around 57:40.
Jun 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Following up on the new #Sudan sanctions authority President Biden issued on May 4 (E.0. 14098), the White House announces targeted sanctions and visa restrictions against actors perpetuating the violence in the country.
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… The US Treasury Dept has designated 4 companies identified as generating revenue from, and contributing to, the conflict in #Sudan:
🔹️Al Junaid (RSF)
🔹️Tradive General Trading (RSF)
🔹️Defense Industries System (SAF)
🔹️Sudan Master Technology (SAF)
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Jun 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Twitter is degrading. Still, no comparable alternative. Fwiw, making lists helps (and you don't have to follow accounts you put them in lists).

"For you" seems to increasingly tilt in a hardline direction, sadly, though it does make for an interesting social media study. Interestingly, Twitter has decided that today my "For You" should highlight tweets from SAF fans that criticize this @valent_projects social media monitoring analysis on #Sudan. Many of the tweets highlighted have few likes or replies, so unclear why.
May 29, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The security & humanitarian situation has dramatically deteriorated in several parts of #Sudan over the past 9 days, most notably in #Darfur. Unclear where the 2M reportedly reached with aid during the "ceasefire" are, but the situation for many Sudanese has worsened, and INGOs still face serious obstacles moving aid into the worst affected areas.
dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/ar…
Mar 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Today, Secretary Blinken has announced the findings of the State Department's review of atrocities reported during the war in northern #Ethiopia:
🔹all parties to the conflict committed war crimes
🔹the ENDF, EDF, and Amhara forces committed crimes against humanity in Tigray 🔹Amhara forces committed the crime against humanity of deportation or forcible transfer, and committed ethnic cleansing through their treatment of Tigrayans in Western Tigray.
Mar 18, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
While high-level US & EU diplomatic visits drew int'l press attention to #Ethiopia this week, most of the focus was on diplomatic relations, $, and the #Tigray peace deal. There was little coverage of the dangerous undercurrents that continue to threaten the country's stability. On Mar 15, while the intl press was focused on Blinken's visit, Ethiopia's election board issued a statement condemning the persecution of some political parties by the govt & its security forces, citing illegal detentions, intimidation & harassment.
m.facebook.com/story.php?stor…
Jan 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Two weeks after forces in Puntland killed IS-Somalia's head of ops, Abu-Albara Al Amani of Ethiopia, US forces conduct a rare raid in #Somalia targeting Bilal al-Sudani, a top Islamic State figure seen as a key facilitator for ISIS's global network. 🧵 Bilal al-Sudani, aka Suhayl Salim Abd el-Rahman of #Sudan, was designated under the US #Somalia sanctions program in 2012 for facilitating the travel & financing of foreign fighters for #AlShabaab since 2007. He later joined the IS splinter faction.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Sep 11, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Tigray authorities say they are ready to abide by an immediate cessation of hostilities, to create a conducive atmosphere for AU-led talks under *mutually-acceptable" mediators, with int'l observers to help build trust, instill confidence in the process & support implementation. These are all fairly standard components of peace processes. The Govt of Ethiopia has been resistant to calls for int'l observers, however. Will they accept them now? This would notionally require granting them access to Tigray & conflict-affected parts of Amhara & Afar.
Sep 10, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The restrictions on US military aid were imposed in May 2021 (before the targeted sanctions regime was announced in Sept). But Ethiopia isn't reliant on US $ for its AMISOM deployment, and didn't cut its AU troop levels. 1/
state.gov/united-states-…

amisom-au.org/ethiopia-endf/ Ethiopia did, however, reportedly withdraw some sizable # of troops it deploys bilaterally (not part of AMISOM/ATMIS) in Somalia at the start of the war and again as the TDF expanded its operations in the latter months of 2021. The US does not support the bilat deployment.
Sep 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#Ethiopia's government says that the @UN_HRC-authorized #ICHREE has "weaponized human rights for political pressure and exposed its true intentions, foreclosing all doors of cooperation with the Government."

The ICHREE statement:
ohchr.org/en/statements/… The ICHREE statement:
🔹expresses deep concern with the renewed hostilities
🔹calls on the parties to immediately cease hostilities, respect IHL obligations & return to dialogue
🔹welcomes the UNSC decision to discuss the situation & urges the UNSC to keep it high on the agenda
Dec 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There seems to be some confusion about AGOA - the law (written and passed by Congress) doesn't give the executive branch the option to "extend the deadline." Ethiopia was determined ineligible for AGOA trade benefits in 2022 bc it did not meet this requirement (10 USC 23 §3703): The law can be read here:
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=…
Dec 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The irony of #NoMore is that it seems to deny Tigrayans & other Ethiopians who have rebelled against the government agency. The civil war will just "end in days" if the US tells TPLF leaders to surrender? Why would the TPLF do that? TPLF leaders will no more surrender than Tigrayans will voluntarily disarm. Because they see themselves facing an existential threat, and they point to a long list of abuses & atrocities since Nov 2020, incl. mass detentions & killings, and a humanitarian blockade as evidence.
Jul 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting to see the sudden upsurge of stated concern over the use of child soldiers in Tigray from social media accounts that haven't previously expressed concern with the implications of the conflict for children there.
unicef.org/press-releases… International humanitarian law prohibits the recruitment and use of children below the age of 15 in hostilities. A helpful summary from ICRC here:
casebook.icrc.org/glossary/child…
Jul 14, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
As Tigrayan forces retake territory and Amhara leaders rally their own forces, PM Abiy's government signals what appears to be an end to its ceasefire. The hostilities bode ill for civilians caught in the middle, and for efforts to stop famine from spreading in #Tigray. 1/ #Ethiopia's government appears to suggest it will allow aid operations in #Tigray as it moves to "defend the country's sovereignty and reverse the threat posed by internal and external enemies of the country."
Feb 27, 2020 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The US military presence in Africa has received increased press attention in recent months, as DOD has commenced a review of troop deployments in line with the Administration's defense priorities. There is sometimes confusion about where those forces are and what they are doing. The bulk (3k-4k) of the 6,000 or so US military personnel in Africa are in Djibouti at Camp Lemonnier, one of AFRICOM's two enduring locations (aka Foreign Operating Site, FOS) - what many would call a base, with permanent living facilities.
tetratech.com/en/articles/ce…
Feb 4, 2020 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
Today's surprise announcement by Netanyahu that Israel & #Sudan have begun a process toward normalizing relations is a major development for #Sudan, and a controversial one. #Sudan's transitional government has yet to issue an official statement on the talks between the Israeli PM and the Chairman of #Sudan's Sovereign Council, Lt. Gen. Burhan, who took power in April 2019 as part of a junta that overthrew longtime president Omar al Bashir.
Sep 26, 2018 • 16 tweets • 8 min read
For years, the death toll of #SouthSudan's civil war has been guesswork, with many repeating an estimate put out in the 1st year of "over 50,000." This new study puts the toll, in Year 5, at almost 400,000. (Thread) The study, by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine w US funding via @USIP, suggests a conservative est. of over 382,000 "excess deaths" as a result of the conflict. Roughly half of these were due to violence, the rest due to disease & reduced access to healthcare.